This is a discussion on Probability within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; Do you focus on the statistics of your poker hand? Or do you just know what hands you should and should not play and not
There's sometimes not much in the way of stats/probability to think about.
For example, suppose I raise 87s on the button and the big blind calls. He checks an A23 flop, I bet and he folds.
I'm probably not thinking about the probability I flop top pair or better pre-flop, or any particular post-flop stat, while making these decisions.
When they're needed, however, they're really needed. Like if someone jams and you have a flush draw only, you definitely want to compare the odds you're getting with the probability you complete this draw.
hi hi everyone!!!
i like to share true story, come to mind in study of poker math.
part my degree take courses in probability & statistics (SPSS). before I interest nlh - study & play much live blackjack, i good at it, with optimal play, staying focused & sober keep house edge at 0.5% at our local casinos
few years ago out with friend for dinner in vancouver. in hallway by bathrooms i find wide, heavy gold band with diamond in it. i give to staff. it late we near ready leave, old guy in white uniform come to us. was his ring, he cook helper in kitchen. he incredibly appreciate.
seems ring from his dead wife, mean much to him. restaurant about to close, he ask buy us a drink,join at table.
his name klaus,very sweet fascinatin guy, when become 2-3 drinks we talk lots.
say end of month he move to las vegas retire. said he spent last few years develop roulette betting system, to pay his retirement. my ears perk up.
i studied roulette & various systems. consider roulette (2 zeros) a scam with house edge on even money bets about 5 1/4%.
klaus with his pension, all he want do is win $200 each day, he save $22k usd for this adventure
his pension cover more than his rent, he goin live in basement of brother-in law, he tell us his secret system cause i interested in this & return his ring
klaus simple system is...
each day go any casino, watch roulette wheels, wait & when go 5 times in a row same colour (say red)... bet next spin $200 on black. if win - he go home be done for day. if lose, he bet black again $400 & if lose next $800 etc until win $200 and go home.
i dubious girl, ask if he know power of doubling, like fable of peasant ask reward of emperor - one grain of rice on first square of chess board, then double each square... so 1 grain, 2, 4, 8 etc... by square 64... results in more rice than is on the planet earth!
or if work for you 5 weeks, i say pay me this ok?
first day 1 penny, then for each of next days keep double it.
by week five it over 1 million dollars lol?
i ask what of table limits?
he say in vegas he can play at certain tables have $10k max. i say, ok what happen when hit max? he say you just need ask they raise limit (yikes) in his years of record roulette spins, that so so so seldom where same colour come 10x consecutive, says odds of that like be hit by lightning. hummm...
i take napkin, write it out, by spin 6 you at table max... if they allow you, by spin 7 you bet $12,800 to make $200 & your odds be about 46%, is two green zeros. (if have monies & they allow spin 8 be $25,600 omg)
he no convinced. we end by him give his b-inlaw phone number so when i come vegas that spring for wedding we get together, that spring i catch up with klaus.
best was he show good eat places. the buffet at main street station (downtown) wow spectacular & cost dinner $11.99, in ny ny the best burger ever had at shake shack under $10, plus enjoy $1 beer at casino royale.
all great, i stay at mandalay, need bank loan eat or drink there, anyway klaus doin fine & his scheme work well, he happy enjoy lv on $200 a day spending monies, other than his scheme, he gamble zero.
next fall i in vegas
try contact klaus, no luck - talk his b-inlaw...
klaus loose all saving return canada. wow, so sad, i cringe, shiver imagine klaus at the roulette, bets what left his life savings… yikes… to win the elusive $200 *cries*
this come to mind in study poker math ev & odds. i need remember probability is predicted outcome over an infinite number of events, more than a zillion lol
if toss a coin & last dozen times it come up heads, that has zero relevance to the next toss. each event is independent to all previous events. the chance for a tails remain exactly same.
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Hi I do not use programs with mathematical calculation of positions and structures.I play with my own knowledge.I am not a professional-you can say a beginner but with experience.The programs distract me-and there is another side to how will you play live poker afterwards?
If you are a cash player you should focus more on the statistics of your hands and carry out a control of how many hands you play and see the numbers if you are a winner or a loser by opening a lot of hands.
Now if you only play mtts tournaments you should have a discipline of range of hands that you are going to play with.
Of course, I focus on statistics and theory. But over time, many combinations of cards are automatically memorized due to frequent draws and they are already played automatically. You experiment with some combinations and find the best pranks for yourself.
Poker is one very large math problem. Whether we are calculating anything or not, it is still a math problem. This is why we all want to play AA and fold 72o. We know that we have a higher probability of winning with AA than we do with 72o.
The math is subject to variance and interpretation, so even two poker players may come up with a different math answer to a specific situation. The unknown cards are the variance and our opponent's actions/reactions are our interpretation.
Probability helps us to always have an estimate of whether there is a chance of winning in a given hand, we know that there are strong hands pre flop, but everything is decided after the flop, and there is a high percentage of players who win with the river.
of course, you can always fold weak hands, but any 2 cards always have a chance to collect a winning combination. also, there are often situations in poker when your hand does not matter if you have correctly determined the opponent's range. Statistics can help to identify errors in the game, but it is not suitable to fully dictate the style of the game to you.
Hello. That is a very good question. I continue to read and listen to what is going on out there. I am a math minor and love stats. The many years I have played have become so innate that I have a lot of what to dos and what not to dos down. It is always good, too, to know who on the table is a maniac, betting almost every hand and has no range. So if you do or do not is a personal choice, but I have grown out of a lot of use tos'.