Probability

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helenag

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Do you focus on the statistics of your poker hand? Or do you just know what hands you should and should not play and not pay attention to the numbers?
 
perrywh

perrywh

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I play attention to the play of the players. I adjust my game to deal with that play!
 
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fernandofcp

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I focus on statistics and study the odds. Without analysis it is very difficult to survive in a game.
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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There's sometimes not much in the way of stats/probability to think about.

For example, suppose I raise 87s on the button and the big blind calls. He checks an A23 flop, I bet and he folds.

I'm probably not thinking about the probability I flop top pair or better pre-flop, or any particular post-flop stat, while making these decisions.

When they're needed, however, they're really needed. Like if someone jams and you have a flush draw only, you definitely want to compare the odds you're getting with the probability you complete this draw.
 
A

angelamsmith05

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I just know what hands I play and what hands I fold>
 
KristaK

KristaK

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hi hi everyone!!! :ciao:
i like to share true story, come to mind in study of poker math.

background…
part my degree take courses in probability & statistics (SPSS). before I interest nlh - study & play much live blackjack, i good at it, with optimal play, staying focused & sober keep house edge at 0.5% at our local casinos

story…
few years ago out with friend for dinner in vancouver. in hallway by bathrooms i find wide, heavy gold band with diamond in it. i give to staff. it late we near ready leave, old guy in white uniform come to us. was his ring, he cook helper in kitchen. he incredibly appreciate.
seems ring from his dead wife, mean much to him. restaurant about to close, he ask buy us a drink,join at table.
his name klaus,very sweet fascinatin guy, when become 2-3 drinks we talk lots.

say end of month he move to las vegas retire. said he spent last few years develop roulette betting system, to pay his retirement. my ears perk up.

i studied roulette & various systems. consider roulette (2 zeros) a scam with house edge on even money bets about 5 1/4%.
klaus with his pension, all he want do is win $200 each day, he save $22k usd for this adventure
his pension cover more than his rent, he goin live in basement of brother-in law, he tell us his secret system cause i interested in this & return his ring

klaus simple system is...
each day go any casino, watch roulette wheels, wait & when go 5 times in a row same colour (say red)... bet next spin $200 on black. if win - he go home be done for day. if lose, he bet black again $400 & if lose next $800 etc until win $200 and go home.

i dubious girl, ask if he know power of doubling, like fable of peasant ask reward of emperor - one grain of rice on first square of chess board, then double each square... so 1 grain, 2, 4, 8 etc... by square 64... results in more rice than is on the planet earth!

or if work for you 5 weeks, i say pay me this ok?
first day 1 penny, then for each of next days keep double it.
by week five it over 1 million dollars lol?

i ask what of table limits?
he say in vegas he can play at certain tables have $10k max. i say, ok what happen when hit max? he say you just need ask they raise limit (yikes) in his years of record roulette spins, that so so so seldom where same colour come 10x consecutive, says odds of that like be hit by lightning. hummm...

i take napkin, write it out, by spin 6 you at table max... if they allow you, by spin 7 you bet $12,800 to make $200 & your odds be about 46%, is two green zeros. (if have monies & they allow spin 8 be $25,600 omg)

he no convinced. we end by him give his b-inlaw phone number so when i come vegas that spring for wedding we get together, that spring i catch up with klaus.

best was he show good eat places. the buffet at main street station (downtown) wow spectacular & cost dinner $11.99, in ny ny the best burger ever had at shake shack under $10, plus enjoy $1 beer at casino royale.
all great, i stay at mandalay, need bank loan eat or drink there, anyway klaus doin fine & his scheme work well, he happy enjoy lv on $200 a day spending monies, other than his scheme, he gamble zero.

next fall i in vegas
try contact klaus, no luck - talk his b-inlaw...
klaus loose all saving return canada. wow, so sad, i cringe, shiver imagine klaus at the roulette, bets what left his life savings… yikes… to win the elusive $200 *cries*

this come to mind in study poker math ev & odds. i need remember probability is predicted outcome over an infinite number of events, more than a zillion lol

if toss a coin & last dozen times it come up heads, that has zero relevance to the next toss. each event is independent to all previous events. the chance for a tails remain exactly same.
 
P

pltelles

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I play according to my hand and how the opponents are behaving.
 
Al fred

Al fred

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With random cards I play my position over players and the board.
 
Lena M

Lena M

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Hello.
The statistics are certainly very useful, but when playing poker, I just try to make the right decisions and do not play with junk.
 
sharipov8090

sharipov8090

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Hi I do not use programs with mathematical calculation of positions and structures.I play with my own knowledge.I am not a professional-you can say a beginner but with experience.The programs distract me-and there is another side to how will you play live poker afterwards?
 
S

suehtam05

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I think it is critic to know the numbers. A little bit of math will help you in making decisions
 
Juan Oro

Juan Oro

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If you are a cash player you should focus more on the statistics of your hands and carry out a control of how many hands you play and see the numbers if you are a winner or a loser by opening a lot of hands.
Now if you only play mtts tournaments you should have a discipline of range of hands that you are going to play with.
 
milka1605

milka1605

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In principle, over the years, the game of poker has already become automatic. Although sometimes you have to figure out the probability of a card coming out.
 
Zvezda kz

Zvezda kz

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Of course, I focus on statistics and theory. But over time, many combinations of cards are automatically memorized due to frequent draws and they are already played automatically. You experiment with some combinations and find the best pranks for yourself.
 
dorivaldojr

dorivaldojr

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I pay close attention to my hand before any play, but also how much I have in chips!
 
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casique31

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I prefer that the practice makes me make automatic decisions with no help other than my memory. This way I don't need any kind of program, whether it's live or online.
 
Pawlowski

Pawlowski

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Numbers are key! But experience makes life easier.
 
E

el79

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I don't look at probabilities, I don't have help programs either, I play according to my intuition of my good cards. or it depends what the floop shows
 
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steve01991

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i dont focus too much on the stats, but i do know if i have no chance of winning
 
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Lucky_Shark

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I have charts of the starting hands that I play on.
 
INISHTE

INISHTE

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Hi friend.

Yes friend, I take into account statistics and occasionally a hunch.
 
H

HTML

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this is the most difficult case in poker. everyone will tell you in their own way.
 
GARCIA PABLO DANIEL

GARCIA PABLO DANIEL

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hello

If I focus on the probabilities it depends on the position the stack also I look at all those things and the cards that I have at that moment !!!
 
mateuszjason

mateuszjason

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im using my own strategy. Is all about my own expierience, read couple of books, many articales.

played a ten of tousands tournaments and sit and go so i learing from analyise me mistakes.

from early position im opening about 25% of hands. from latre position even 35% of hands.
 
NWPatriot

NWPatriot

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Poker is one very large math problem. Whether we are calculating anything or not, it is still a math problem. This is why we all want to play AA and fold 72o. We know that we have a higher probability of winning with AA than we do with 72o.

The math is subject to variance and interpretation, so even two poker players may come up with a different math answer to a specific situation. The unknown cards are the variance and our opponent's actions/reactions are our interpretation.

No one said this was easy.

Good luck and God Bless.
 
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