This is a discussion on Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion) within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; There are a lot of ups and downs in poker so Poker Variance and Bankroll Management are important to study. If you have not yet read |
|
Page 1 of 2 | Register or Use the arrow to the right to read the next 1 page(s). |
Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion) |
#1
|
||||
|
||||
Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion)
There are a lot of ups and downs in poker so Poker Variance and Bankroll Management are important to study.
If you have not yet read Day 20 and watched the video for Day 20 - take a few minutes now to do that and then come back here to discuss it: Poker Variance and Bankroll Management Collin discusses ROI (return on investment), ITM (in the money) and what kind of bankroll you need for various games on day 20. Let's continue that discussion here and ask Katie and Collin any questions you may still have on these topics.
__________________
Free Poker Course at Cardschat: Become a Winning Poker Player in 30 Days! |
Similar Threads for: Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion) | ||||
Thread | Replies | Last Post | Forum | |
My humble and conservative bankroll management | 9 | March 6th, 2020 4:18 PM | Learning Poker |
#2
|
||||
|
||||
Thank you very much for this article, it has helped me to better understand the variance and good bankroll management.
Sometimes when the variance is against you, you can make many mistakes, such as playing off the bench, and this can lead you to lose all your money.
__________________
|
#3
|
||||
|
||||
Be sure to check out the other chapters too - I learned something from each of them.
__________________
Free Poker Course at Cardschat: Become a Winning Poker Player in 30 Days! |
#4
|
||||
|
||||
Here are some points which are shaping my approach to playing this year as a recreational player:
-father and son bull joke -What No One Else Is Saying about Online-Poker (I re-read this once in a while and the author was nice enough to respond to my emails ~2010) -The Wealthy Barber (Pay yourself first - I met the author at a local coffee shop) -Time Value of Money/Opportunity Cost/Kelly criterion -Rake/Cost of depositing/retaining/withdrawing funds at a poker site -Swag value.."rewards..(ahem..)" such as chests, tickets...for player loyalty -Electricity cost, Social cost and inability to play value-laden games due to circumstances and other ancillary considerations for a cost/benefit Assuming I factor these considerations into a projection covering the four sites I play at until year end 2020 so that all the above (and more) fixed and variable costs are accounted for so that I can establish break-even points over a feasibility threshold...say by playing free rolls only can I now start lining up quantifiable goals? If I want to earn (at least) $5 Million playing poker what is the optimal path I must traverse through all the games I must play and must avoid? My expectation is that part of the total variance in each game will be contingent on my ability..essentially "bank-ability." Within this topic relative to specific player fields that populate (sometimes inundate) certain poker games, would "Arrow's Impossibility Theorem" and the "Nakumura Number" apply? I took a quick look at your Poker Stars Shark Scope stats and noted that over about 15 years you played an average of 13 games/day there until 07/19 when the tracking stopped. Your trending is clear but knowing now what you didn't know then (possibly) is there anything you would have changed regarding your poker bankroll management?
__________________
There's no glamour in losing.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Thank's! I thought only I can't find patience to play tourny with 100 buy-ins. Thank's for showing that you can play with 25 buy-ins. Sometimes..
I also like how is shown the difference among profit and number of games.
__________________
|
#6
|
||||
|
||||
Wonderful lesson and definitely one of the most important to learn. So many people can tilt and make bad decisions when variance is against them and luck just doesn't go their way.
__________________
Some people just need a high-five... In the Face... With a Chair
|
#7
|
|||||||
|
|||||||
As for your question, I have always erred on the side of being overly cautious with my bankroll. It helps me to continually play my best while minimizing financial stress, and for me I really am happy with how I've approached this over the years. Perhaps though the one thing I would do differently is to have taken a few more shots in high-stakes tournaments over the years--though this would be terrible advice for the majority of players and is only really applicable to me because I favor such a conservative bankroll.
__________________
|
#8
|
||||
|
||||
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow%...bility_theorem ..https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory, where a person has to make a rational choice based on several criteria [Rather than a voting system consider Arrow's criteria relative to a poker game (and field this game is a part of) where betting replaces voting and where Pareto efficiency is used to measure betting effectiveness...something like purchasing and using raffle tickets at a church bazaar.] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakamura_number The number is named after Kenjiro Nakamura (1947–1979), a Japanese game theorist who proved the above fact that the rationality of collective choice critically depends on the number of alternatives. ..a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_game#Properties_for_Simple_games is just an arbitrary collection of coalitions; the coalitions belonging to the collection are said to be winning; the others losing. [An aspect of this "measure" is to view how the stack sizes perceive one another relative to their mutually assessed card ranges and if their behaviors will be skewed towards competition/cooperation depending upon the "threats/opportunities" faced by bets/raises and who is initiating them.] The above are from Wikipedia with my interpretation in square brackets. Regarding the average number of games played, it's not accurate but not completely misleading either. There is something to work with there if some rational spadework (guesstimating) is done. I was in the 33-M SCOOP after winning an $11 ticket in a $4 Spin then converting that ticket into a satellite win for the $109 game (I was knocked out with an AKu vs 10 10 preflop after some re-raising. You are (and will continue to be) successful because of your bankroll management and your ability. My quandary is that I am somewhat successful at the $4 Spin games but there is a dramatic difference in the potential prizes in the $22 Spin games. My bankroll for the $4 games is $100 (which is not conservative)..I usually play the $2.75 Spins for tickets. Simple math requires a bankroll of about $600 to play the $22 games but how much more difficult would they be to win? The same kinds of cards will be coming out but I'm expecting that the betting will be different. What kind of generic player level can I expect relative to what is provided in the course? I've also qualified for the SCOOP 01-M [Phase 2] (barely) and have registered for five other $100k+ games from the $22 tickets won in the Spin games. Perhaps I'll be lucky
__________________
There's no glamour in losing.
|
#9
|
||||
|
||||
I am at the stress point of my tournament play. I mean that I am becoming day after day more convinced that unless you get lucky, tournaments are not a way to make profit from poker. Over the last couple of weeks, I get eliminated with at least 65% odds in my favour. Wether it's early or deep, mostly early, I get gutted. Add that to the times I get coolered and the ones I get outplayed, the sum spells
d i s a s t e r. In fact my intermediate state of understanding the game has a huge negative impact on my mental approach to the game. I play expecting the negative outcome and most of the times it is realised. P.e. yesterday, fairly deep in a tourney, after the first 4 ladders I think, I get pocket Aces. After a limp I raise 4x, limper calls, flop is 2 suits, I bet the pot, limper calls, turn pairs the board, I get him all-in as I have some 18 BB more and the moment he calls I am sure that he draws for the flush and that the river is going to complete his hand. My read - and my prediction - were spot on.If I were more of a spiritual person, I would believe that I attract negativity. To cut the blabber short, I am fairly convinced that variance in tournaments is exponential and not linear as it is in cash games, where every hand has equal impact on your game. Thus any edge you might have is rendered insignificant faced with the idiotic random move that gets lucky.
__________________
Thit happenth. Thtay calm!!!
|
#10
|
||||
|
||||
(I hope you looked at Nash's dissertation where I sent you a link a little while ago). I "was" recently in the same frame of mind you seem to be in because of the same outcomes under the same circumstances and perhaps what I did will help you also. Simply assess if it is advantageous for an opponent to call you or not (this is a loaded question which you will appreciate after digging into it). I had a hand with trip Kings post flop which I should have folded but didn't, I went all-in instead and lost. My opponent won on a flush draw. The ability to properly mathematize the situations (nothing magic) you faced, may help to lessen the number of times you will lose with superior hand...but lose you will..and then again you just might have bad karma.
__________________
There's no glamour in losing.
|
#11
|
||||
|
||||
Those concepts are super interesting and I’ll be looking more into them—thanks for pointing them out! I’m not personally familiar with the $22s on stars right now so unfortunately I can’t say for sure except that I would expect them to be fairly reg-infested (I.e) having a lot of winning players in them. My approach to any move up in buyin is to have an answer to the question: what am I doing better than the regulars in this game to best insure I will be beating that? And if I can’t answer that question then I shouldn’t play in that game
__________________
|
#12
|
||||
|
||||
I said in another thread that I have also been having some trouble in tourneys lately, particularly with suckouts, and allins. However, I like tournaments and continue to play them and think that lately things have gone bit wilder because more recreational players are entering the field due to the coronavirus, possibly. They are there just to pass the time and have fun and either don't know how to play properly and read sign, or just don't care. It may also just be a downswing, but that a few of us are experiencing a downswing lately seems to support my theory. We may simply need to either ride it out or adjust our play slightly under the current climate. In the last few days, in early tournament, I am playing far far fewer hands and just letting them knock each other out. If there are betting rounds, I do the betting, but if the fish call, I find they usually like to bet, so I let them call into me when I have the best hand and they pay me off handsomely - yes, I sometimes get sucked out, but they'd call anyway. I save my good play for the later game when most of the idiots have gone, or for the CC games, or the odd site where things are less mad (I find Unibet less hectic) and practice my lessons where I can. Another point, I remember a lesson on game selection. Some players are better at cash, some at tournament play, some at SNG, , etc. Maybe you haven't found the right format for you? I do ok at cash, but love tournament, so tend to do much better there, Just something to think about. Good luck
__________________
|
#13
|
||||
|
||||
Thanks for another great lesson, one question though, to use that software you need to know your ROI% right? How do we know this?
I'm gessing maybe tomorrows lesson is going to tell us this. However, right now, I have used up all my Free Trials on HUDs and can't yet afford to buy, so I need to wait a while :-(
__________________
|
#14
|
||||
|
||||
Good question Cferdi!
Yes you need to input an ROI, but you can look at this analysis as a "What-If." For example, "What if I have a 5% ROI playing 9-man SNG, what will my swings look like?" So it's very useful even without knowing your exact ROI.
__________________
|
#15
|
||||
|
||||
Gus Hansen is one of the world's top high stakes pros (obviously a talented player with great ROI I am sure). However, this lesson reminds me of the Day 15 lesson on game/table selection where we were given the "fun fact" where Gus lost $20M USD on Full Tilt Poker.
My question is: Does anyone know what his bankroll management/variance looked like? Are there interviews or recorded data on this?
__________________
|
#16
|
||||
|
||||
I'm trying to remember if his book "Every Hand Revealed" touched on that at all though I don't believe it did. Greatly enjoyed reading that one though!
__________________
|
#17
|
||||
|
||||
re: Poker & Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion)
For 9-man SnG I believe that a player who has worked hard on his game and has a solid grasp of the push-fold part of the game, they are a good option in the long run.
For the MTTs, luck is always a factor at this format of poker. And I always take the average solution when it comes to the MTT bankroll management: 300 up to 400 buy-ins, I use 350 buy-ins. The variance can be brutal in MTTs.
__________________
|
#18
|
||||
|
||||
Fellow CCers,
I am pleased with my improved edge at the cash tables and ITM finishes in MTT's and the small but steady increase in my bankroll. This course is paying off, as I am making better plays as well as reads at the table and exercising better restraint. I have been making some really huge lay-downs of late which has saved me the regular bust-outs I would have fallen victim to before. Response to video question: I expect the graph to have less of a return with the winner takes all structure. Hero would have to play more games to realize a profit or see less of a profit over the same number of games. The software shows that Hero has to play 40 games to realize a profit between $1 and $50 on average. So Hero's profit is much smaller over the 100 game range playing winner takes all. Nice topic and thanks for the software introduction.
|
#19
|
||||
|
||||
This is very important to know because a lot off peaple rush thiere climb to the next level buy in and iff they louse a couple off game the scarymoney fealing start to apier and that afects your game a lot.
In my personal experiense when i start playing more cash NL2 tham freerolls i wanthed to go to the next level as fast as a could so i ask some other players and they have a really agrasive bankroll management and i take theire advised and whent to NL5 with a bank off 80 and the result was that i had to came back to NL2 several time becase of the scary money was so big that i couldnt handle that preasure and start playing diferently that i use to do. There are a lot off book and streamers that tells you how manny buy ins you need to start playing one level. My advise is that you need to know yourself in orther to know how manny buy ins you are confortavle playing with(this depend a lot in you bb/100 in cash or your ROI in MTT), now i know that i feal very confortavel with 100buy ins in cash but iff for any reason i have to play a lower stake i can do it with 30 to 40 cashes because i know i have beaten that lvl allready and is hard for me to go broke there. |
#20
|
||||
|
||||
poker will always be unpredictable as they say the course theme, since we find all kinds of players, and above all we look for different poker juices where in one without control we can lose double our bankrol .. And we also want to level up when we have not yet improved a low level of betting, and if there are weak players who have a long winning streak but are more losers than winners, we must know how to control the bankroll and level up whenever we already dominate in which we are and continue to rise even if months go by but we must have security before leveling up since we are at risk our bankroll
__________________
Marc´s maniac Winter 1 place and MVP Winter league 2018 EllyWriter Spring 12 Place 2018 Meagain's Rockets Fall 3 Place 2018 |
#21
|
||||
|
||||
Bankroll management, a discipline that few players apply
It is interesting what you say about ROI, putting it into practice and looking for profits Tips like, Flatter payout (greater% paid more even amounts) seemed really good Thanks Guys! |
#22
|
||||
|
||||
BRM is the most important thing every successful poker player needs to understand. You may not know something from the strategy of the game, but if you do not comply with BRM, all your work will end sadly.
__________________
5 Aces Spring League 2021 |
#23
|
||||
|
||||
A very important concept that I should have learned at the beginning. I made many mistakes for not following a correct bankroll management and for that reason I regret it. Thankfully, there was time to correct and maintain correct management. Another important thing in management is to define the game grid.
__________________
3rd place at WCOOP-56-L 2020 - https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poke...p-56-l-466863/
|
#24
|
||||
|
||||
I think this course should have been shown on week 1.
I lost my entire bankroll several times because I didn't knew anything about bankroll management. I'm used to teach poker to friends and family and they all do the same mistake: not following rules of BRM. I try to warn them several times, but to no avail. Great video
__________________
2020 Double Trouble winner with frank174
|
#25
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#26
|
||||
|
||||
It is very important to get this right from the start.
__________________
Free Poker Course at Cardschat: Become a Winning Poker Player in 30 Days!
|
#27
|
|||
|
|||
I lost a US$10 bankroll playing Sit&Gos. I won many times but i think the real problem is that i should've deposited US$50 to practice more because most of the time i lost by bad luck
__________________
|
#28
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#29
|
||||
|
||||
the variation in poker upwards or downwards is not normal, it will happen in every game you are going to play so I managed to control your bankroll is the best thing you do, so the variation will not bother you much just knowing how to manage your Cashier.
__________________
|
#30
|
|||
|
|||
How do you feel about using satellite entries into MTTs as a method of mitigating bankroll risk? Would the X300 buy-in rule apply to these too, or should there be another rule for satellites given that there's more variance (have to cash a satellite AND tournament to be profitable)?
__________________
Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/jonnylawford Twitter: https://twitter.com/JohnLawford3 Discord: Jonnylaw |
#31
|
||||
|
||||
Great advice on how you can manage your own input to variance and how it can affect you and how to take control to reduce losses and increase winnings.
__________________
'The smallest act is worth more than the greatest intention' (Oscar Wilde) SPRING LEAGUE Scorecard Spring 2021
|
#32
|
||||
|
||||
Yes, I’d be comfortable with that number of buyins. Satellites can be a great way to mitigate risk, just so long as we make sure to use optimal strategy as this can vary greatly not only as compared to traditional mtts but also from satellite to satellite
__________________
|
#33
|
||||
|
||||
One of the first lessons I learned in poker was bankroll management. And it really worth it. I never lost my entire bankroll and always try to follow the the buy in increase/decrease rule.
I play poker for fun and have no intention to make this a way of life. But I don't wanna to lose money too. Br management is essencial to this.
__________________
Save the Amazon rain Forest, now! |
#34
|
||||
|
||||
re: Poker & Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion)
__________________
|
#35
|
||||
|
||||
I wish it was the first thing I’d of learned. It’s something that’s so easy overlooked by many players. It most certainly comes down to self discipline and sticking to a plan. All you can do though is learn and move forward
__________________
|
#36
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
|
#37
|
|||
|
|||
Variance is what I have been looking into quite a lot this week as I'm experiencing what seems like terrible luck. I thought my consistent win rate over 15,000 hands was a sign that I had figured out how to play poker.. but now after losing 11 buy-ins in 2 days I'm doubting myself and its affecting my game quite a lot.. e.g playing so passive because I'm convinced I am always behind no matter what.
How does one realise its just variance and not ability? I play micros at 1/2 so the money means nothing.. all I want to do is know that I am playing well and I'm good at the game. If I was confident in that then I can play knowing variance will even out eventually!
__________________
|
#38
|
||||
|
||||
Sorry to hear you've been running bad, but don't worry -- losing 11 buy-ins is definitely a normal downswing for winning players. You will need more than 15,000 hands to get a good idea of your winrate though. I recommend the Primedope Variance calculator to get a good idea of how to know when it's likely just variance. It's available https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/. Good luck in your games!
__________________
|
#39
|
|||
|
|||
Nothing too different or surprising here although I've read before that around 100 buy ins is suitable for MTT. You guys recommended a lot higher but do you think 100 is acceptable albeit on the lower side?
Also what are your thoughts on taking a stab at a higher entry occasionally for experience and the chance to massively increase bankroll? I'm thinking of entering 0.50c MTTs maybe once or twice a week in addition to my regular sit and go's but don't want to risk denting my roll in doing so. 0.50c MTT would be 2% of my current roll.
__________________
|
#40
|
||||
|
||||
It’s all a matter of how conservative you want to be in conjunction with your ROI. Personally I’ve known winning players go bust with 100BI rolls, but the truth is most players (even pros) don’t practice great bankroll management. As for the MTT .50 shot, any time you shot take by definition you’re increasing your risk of denting the roll (even with the potential for the nice score). However, as we say in the course, if you’re willing to move down if shots don’t work/your bankroll decreases then that can be an option as well.
__________________
|
#41
|
|||||
|
|||||
The idea behind bankroll management is, that if you are playing for profit, either professionally or part time, then its obviously a disaster to lose all your money, because then you can no longer play. So its just like being an Uber driver and crashing your car without insurance. Not only did you lose your car, you also lost your source of income. However if you lose 25$ online, that does not force you to stop playing. It only force you to make another deposit. So it does not really make sense to talk about a poker bankroll, before you have 4 figures, and some like Andreas would even say 5 figures. But of course people have different financial situations, so for some its more, and for others its less. But the point remains, that if you play something as low as 25c SnGs, then this is not to "build a bankroll". Its for something else. Probably either fun or practice. And I do think, there is a point is starting a little bit higher like for instance the 1$ 45-180 man SnGs on Stars and the 1,5$ 90 man bounty SnG. Or if you have the money, maybe deposit 500$ on another poker site than Stars and start playing MTTs there. In general 2-5$ MTTs is where, you begin to be able to make some money, which actually matter at least a little bit in terms of purchasing power. And its not like, they are an all-star line-up at all. There are still plenty of fish and bad regs in 2-5$ MTTs, especially if you play at the right site and the right time of day. Looking back at my poker "career", I kind of wish, it had taken me less time to discover this, than it actually did
__________________
|
#42
|
|||
|
|||
A question dear members of cardschat, the videos of the course can be seen with subtitles in Spanish or everything is English and cannot be seen in Spanish [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.54)][COLOR=var(--link-color)][/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.54)][COLOR=var(--link-color)][/COLOR][/COLOR] [/COLOR]
__________________
|
#43
|
||||
|
||||
As of right now, the course is available in English only. We'll let you know if that changes in the future and it becomes available in Spanish and other languages
__________________
|
#44
|
||||
|
||||
If I'm going to make money with poker, it's very important that I develop good bankrolling skills. If I don't do this, I will be committing myself to constant losses, which will be very difficult to handle, regardless of the level of my game.
Of course, bankroll management alone will not make me a successful poker player. You should learn how to actually play poker. But this element can protect me from the inevitable series of failures in poker, and will allow me to remain a positive player. Life is a game , play beautiful
__________________
|
#45
|
||||
|
||||
I have good bankroll management, it was among THE FIRST lessons that I learned, Chris Ferguson wrote a guide many years ago, and I studied it carefully.
It is a very important lesson for every poker player to learn. Thanks for the lesson
__________________
“Practice makes perfect.”
|
#46
|
|||
|
|||
Tought subject
I guess I'll be back anytime soon, these are the counts we need to do!
__________________
Doesn't matter, have fun!
|
#47
|
||||
|
||||
Catching certain dawnstrike, regardless of the quality of their game, I know all about bankroll management.Is it correct to say that acting on the ABC, the distance will return everything?
__________________
«Never make fun of someone who speaks broken English. It means they know another language» |
#48
|
||||
|
||||
__________________
«Never make fun of someone who speaks broken English. It means they know another language» |
#49
|
||||
|
||||
I think that starting with bankroll management could definitely make sense because you don't want to put too much at risk right away. But I wouldn't agree with a course that started with tracking software -- assuming it was designed for beginning players. You want to have a better understanding of the fundamentals and basic strategy before worrying about stats/HUD.
__________________
|
#50
|
||||
|
||||
I'm still having trouble using any of the links in the eBook. What's that other calculator tool for cash game variance?
__________________
Don't forget to have fun <3 |
|
Similar Threads for: Poker Variance and Bankroll Management (Day 20 Course Discussion) > Texas Hold'em Poker | ||||
Thread | Replies | Last Post | Forum | |
My humble and conservative bankroll management | 9 | March 6th, 2020 4:18 PM | Learning Poker |