This is a discussion on Poker math for flopping flush within the online poker forums, in the Learning Poker section; I read on a poker website the odds of flopping a flush is 0.8% or 124/1. However doesn't it feel like it's more like 25/1.
There are 13 cards of each suit, so the equation would look like:
If you have two suited cards there are 50 cards left in deck. 11 of those remaining cards are of your suit. There are flops which will give you a flush. There’s a total of possible flops for your hole cards. The probability of you flopping a flush is
You can check out this page for more odds and calculations:
I read on a poker website the odds of flopping a flush is 0.8% or 124/1. However doesn't it feel like it's more like 25/1. Can anyone explain the math behind these numbers please?
This is how it works:
You have 2 cards and there's 50 left in the deck, and 11 suited cards left in the deck so for the first card to come on the flop it's 50/11 then you have one less card on the next flop card and one less flush card so it's 49/10 and 48/9 for last card. So the calculation is 50÷11 =4.54, 49÷10=4.9, 48÷9=5.33 multiply them together.
The probability of being dealt two flush cards is 12/51 of the second card being same suit or 23.53%
Probability of flopping a flush draw is
There is a 11-in-50 chance of the first flop card being a flush card and a 10-in-49 chance of the 2nd flop card being a flush card. Then there is a 39-in-48 chance of the third flop card NOT being a flush card. Then we multiply by 3 because there are 3 different possible flops with 2 of the flush cards.