I've been playing a lot of tournaments lately and have noticed a few things.
1) Many hands get to showdown that probably never should have been played in the first place.
2) Calling any kind of shove at any point is usually a bad idea. Not that the shover necessarily has a better hand. It just becomes a coin toss once the post flop skill of the players is removed from the equation.
3) Most hands that aren't all-in pre-flop are won or lost without ever seeing the winner's cards. So, a lot of flops that are unlikely to have hit either/any player's hand almost certainly didn't. Whoever tells the best story is going to be the winner most of the time. That story doesn't have to be true, just sort of believable.
4) Most players telegraph their really strong hands. It's almost like the cards are being played face up sometimes. The difficulty usually is that even though you know what the other player has you still have to decide whether or not to risk your tournament life on a draw. This is where the REAL skill comes into play! Some players can be bet off top pair, most cannot be bet off any pair. The trick is knowing who's who.
5) Speaking of draws, many, many players really overvalue flush draws, like a LOT! This includes suited connectors but a lot of players don't really care about connectivity, just suitedness.
6) Many, many players overvalue small Ax hands.
7) Many, many players overvalue pairs. Not the AA, KK kind, but the 77, 88 kind.
Just my observations.
These are just my observations for a mediocre microstakes player. I'm always looking to learn and improve and I'm sure some of my thoughts, views, observations, etc could be a bit off. If so, hopefully more knowledgeable members can correct me.
1) This is a good thing as it shows what players are willing to call down light or even lead out light. In the micros, a lot of bad players are willing to get to the river with any piece of the board and will only fold if they completely miss. Keep in mind that most bad players aren't playing weak hands or calling raises light just to hit something and fold.
2) It's not a coinflip unless in a a pair vs 2 overs situation. In a specific hand vs hand situation, it's going to be your
equity vs opponent's equity. It might seem like it's a toss up because you have no control of the out come, but the hand with the higher equity is winning more often in the long run. On top of that, it's important to look at your hand vs your opponent shoving range as they're not just shoving a specific hand and the question you have to ask is 'does your hand give you an edge over their range?' Lets say you have JJ on the big blind, btn open jams for 10 big blinds, and you think they're open jamming 20% of hands in this position. JJ has 65% equity against this range, so you'll be winning 65% of time. 35% of the time you'll lose to a worse hand or you'll run into a better pair and that can be expected because it's all within the range of hands they're playing and the preflop equity. What if they only shove 5% of hands? Then you're breakeven with a call and this might not be a spot where you feel like you should call. What if you have 18 bbs and you're on the final table bubble and there is a player with only 1 bb. Do you want to risk more than 50% of stack on a breakeven spot with an opponent who is jamming QQ+ as easily as are 1010? You wouldn't snap call 55 in this spot because your equity would be way below their shoving range. So, there is some skill involved with calling all-ins. Some bad players might not show that because they're not thinking in terms of ranges. They might see suited ace or 10J and think it's good but, if you want to be a better player, you have to think about these things.
3) True. 2/3 times you completely miss the flop and so does your opponent. The person that is the aggressor will often have the advantage because aggression gives you 2 chances win: opponent folds or you have the best hand in the end.
4) Exactly. Just by simply observing the table and paying attention, you can tell who hasn't been active in a hand and if you've seen then fold 4 or 5 rotations and they suddenly open up with a raise, they probably have something. I see this all the time: when a super short stack, say 5 bbs, get a big hand, they always try to trap with it. They'll min raise instead of jamming and 99% of the time it's KK+. Thi is even more evident if you've observed them open jamming with a bigger stack like 8 bbs in which they're probably jamming their smaller pairs, mediocre aces, and KJ+ suited.
5) Suited hands are pretty to look at. I completely agree and this is going to be the opponents you should note as they're going to pay you off in the long run.
6) I think this depends on the situation. Yes, I've seen players over value weak suited aces in multiway flops with lots of pre-flop action. And I guess it's bad unless maybe stacks are super deep. I don't know, not going to get too into it. If someone is calling down with a weak ace when they paired the flop, yeah, they're over valuing and this ties in with #1. At the same time, lets say it's a heads up situation where btn opens and bb calls with A3. Is this over valuing a weak ace? Not necessarily. A3 is probably doing decently against an opening range from the btn and you have an ace blocker. But this will all depend on your opponent, stack size, raise size, etc.
7) I agree there are players just can't fold their pairs and, again, some players don't play poker to get dealt a pair and just fold. They've probably flopped trips a few times and busted out big pairs before, so it's going to happen again eventually, right? These are players that pay you off when you have better and there is skill in being able to fold weaker hands depending on the situation. Obviously it sucks when you fold and hit, but that is what separates you from the weaker players. The weak player mentality is: 'If I fold and I hit, it's a bad fold. If I fold and I hit, it's a good fold.' and then they're convince themselves to always over play their weak pairs because they don't want to risk another 'bad fold'.
Now, with all that said, there are times where you just need to go for it and hope for the best. If you have 20-30 bbs with 55 and there is a raise, 3bet, jam, cold-call before it gets to you and you don't the think the original raiser and/or 3better is going to fold, then it's an easy fold, regardless of results. But what if you only have 5 bbs and you're 98/100 players remaining, 50 players make the money. This is a spot to call. If you lose, you're out in 100th place, no biggie. You win, you pick up 25+ bbs. Is it over valuing your pair? No, you don't have a lot of options and this is a great chance at an opportunity to finish better in the tournament. Look at the risk vs reward.
Keep up with your observations.