What're The Odds of A Fish Getting This Lucky???

[Gimpleton]

Aiiight, so, today I witnessed something that was nothing short of miraculous.

NLHE 2 dolla minimum af stake table. Full ring, and this 1 guy, this GOD sitting on my right, played the greatest hour and a half of poker I've ever seen!!

Just spent way too long searching through my PT4 trial version for the session, but either I'm too dumb to find it or it's not there (some stuff is amiss due to me being too miserable to fork out for the full version).

Aaaanyhoooo, so this freak of variance on my right has absolutely NO CLUE where the fold button is. After 100 hands he's a VPIP/PFR = 95/50. I repeat...... 95/50!!

Awesome right?? Licking your lips and rubbing your grubby little hands together right???

WRONG!! *Arnie voice*

This guy CANNOT LOSE. I watched in awe as he never failed to show the best hand. I mean like every single time. We all sat patiently, waiting for our strong hands to serve us our fish supper. I could feel everyone thinking "Okay, you got me this time, but eventually you'll be mine, I can wait"...... no joy.

Now, I realize that variance can play tricks on you. And that sometimes people experience swings of unreasonable luck, and sometimes for longer than one would think possible. So I did some trashy maths on what happened here.

This guy played 95% of hands with a WTSD of about 40%, which I understand was high due to other players getting frustrated and going all the way on the back of "He can't always have the best hand" rationale, but even still.

Let's assume that every hand has an equity of roughly 30%, meaning if you play every single hand, you're expected to win 3/10 times right?? So if your hand is only turning face up 4/10 times, you don't have to be too lucky to win them all, so long as you're selecting the right ones.

Now, I was there, so I saw him hit from behind and extraordinary amount of times. I watched as fecal matter turned to gold in his hands time after time. But I can't really fault the numbers, can I? I'm no mathamagician, so I'm not sure?

Part of me wants to say the odds of him having the best hand every time were 0.3x40. But that number is sooo f'nrkin demented it would have me believe that God himself was burning and turning for this guy.

Was he blessed, or was he genius???

 

[kceow2981]

I honestly can't say what the actual numbers here would be, but I must say man, this was a hilarious read you put a ton of personality into the post and I laughed my butt off reading it. So thanks man ahaha

 

[Misaki]

Was he blessed, or was he genius???

no he was just a fish. That kind of players happen all the time. I remember myself when I played freeroll on 888 some time ago and I was generally playing every hand. That was funny how ppl started to tilt in freerolls and make easy mistakes. Of course by playing like that I was on place 1st-5th very long time. Variance can be sick but it finally ends soon or later.
Generally It works like that : if someone plays every hand then regulars start to play tighter range because they prefer to wait for premium hand and stuck fish off. When they finally get big hand they can't fold it and lose vs silly 2 pairs of fish. That's ilusion that fish hits every hand. He doesn't. If he would play one or two hours more playing like that he would just lose everything. Talking about fish luck is just a mindset leak. You shouldn't be focused on that but try to play your best. Variance happens to everyone.