What are the odds!

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eagleaces

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What are the odds of having Pocket Tens on the button with 23 bigs and a BB with only 8 bigs have Kings????? It seems like the odds wouldnt be able to figure. Idk let me know cause no one else can answer it. And! It seems to happen a lot, so the odds must be larger than KK vs AA from any position, cause that almost never happens to me. Pretty cool if some one could answer this. RIGHT??
 
Phoenix Wright

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Well, as rare as this might be - it is probably greatly psychological. If you had pocket Tens and they had pocket Aces instead of pocket Kings, then you'd probably question the odds in the same. The accurate way to get an answer is actually "what are the odds of your range (or exact holding) against their likely range of possible hands."

Luckily, this is a math question a poker calculator can come up with :)

With the answer I'll give, I'll go off of this range I made up for this spot, but naturally you can adjust this to re-calculate yourself if you had more information on what hands (or type of hands) they might play.

Since Villain only has 8 Big Blinds, they might be shoving with a wider range than I'll give, but for simplicity sake I'll say they are shoving All-In with 350 hand combinations of the possible 1326. This is 26.40% of all hands they are continuing with and folding the rest.

A range like that might look like this:

22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A2o+,KTo+,QJo

Again, we can adjust this range (them continuing with these exact hands might or might not be best, but it is just a sample here). For example, this range has them shoving every pocket pair, but TAG players might not always call off your 23BBs when you cover their stack and they have Pocket Deuces (22). Similarly, this constructed range is shoving "any Ace."

Given this range against exactly pocket Tens (TdTh I used but suits don't matter for the math here), then your hand is estimated to win 63.63% of the time and Villains range will win about 36.37% of the time.

As the math indicates, your Tens are good just under two-thirds of the time. It really isn't as unlikely you were beat as you were. Variance in poker is very real, but over the long-haul, your play was "+EV" and you'll come out better.

For this calculation, I used the free poker calculator Equilab, but other poker calculators exist out there to calculate the same.
 
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jeffman123

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The odds are pretty small, and yeah usually when you have pocket 10s nobody at the table has a better pocket pair. However, when someone does have a better pocket pair, you're definitely gonna be hearing from them. Also, your brain registers loses as more important than wins.
 
henriquemaduro

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What are the odds of having Pocket Tens on the button with 23 bigs and a BB with only 8 bigs have Kings????? It seems like the odds wouldnt be able to figure. Idk let me know cause no one else can answer it. And! It seems to happen a lot, so the odds must be larger than KK vs AA from any position, cause that almost never happens to me. Pretty cool if some one could answer this. RIGHT??


Its the same chance of he hold the other 1320 possibilities, very little.
Think about if u bet right, not that. If u shove the effective stack in that situation and did it right.
 
franken222

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If you're talking pre-flop, the odds of having any pair are the same. Number of blinds, and players don't even matter.

There are 52 cards in any deck, and four of a kind in any deck.

You had just as much chance of getting 2-2, as you did 10-10, or k-k.
 
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eagleaces

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cool

Well, as rare as this might be - it is probably greatly psychological. If you had pocket Tens and they had pocket Aces instead of pocket Kings, then you'd probably question the odds in the same. The accurate way to get an answer is actually "what are the odds of your range (or exact holding) against their likely range of possible hands."

Luckily, this is a math question a poker calculator can come up with :)

With the answer I'll give, I'll go off of this range I made up for this spot, but naturally you can adjust this to re-calculate yourself if you had more information on what hands (or type of hands) they might play.

Since Villain only has 8 Big Blinds, they might be shoving with a wider range than I'll give, but for simplicity sake I'll say they are shoving All-In with 350 hand combinations of the possible 1326. This is 26.40% of all hands they are continuing with and folding the rest.

A range like that might look like this:

22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,A2o+,KTo+,QJo

Again, we can adjust this range (them continuing with these exact hands might or might not be best, but it is just a sample here). For example, this range has them shoving every pocket pair, but TAG players might not always call off your 23BBs when you cover their stack and they have Pocket Deuces (22). Similarly, this constructed range is shoving "any Ace."

Given this range against exactly pocket Tens (TdTh I used but suits don't matter for the math here), then your hand is estimated to win 63.63% of the time and Villains range will win about 36.37% of the time.

As the math indicates, your Tens are good just under two-thirds of the time. It really isn't as unlikely you were beat as you were. Variance in poker is very real, but over the long-haul, your play was "+EV" and you'll come out better.

For this calculation, I used the free poker calculator Equilab, but other poker calculators exist out there to calculate the same.


great answer
 
eniseysmail

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Well, you perfectly understand that this is poker and this is a game. This is not approved mathematics. And besides, you yourself use the term - chances. And chances are you yourself perfectly understand this is not a 100% result in your calculations. Resign yourself and understand that this is just a game.
 
Zvezda kz

Zvezda kz

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The accurate way to get an answer is actually "what are the odds of your range (or exact holding) against their likely range of possible hands."


After such an answer, no additional questions should arise. Moreover, the answer was well written and the opportunity for further research was provided.

But in general these are the foundations of poker theory. So let me give you some advice, re-read the theory and basics of poker.
 
GARCIA PABLO DANIEL

GARCIA PABLO DANIEL

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hello

The possibility and reading of the game you have many calculation options but I think that analyzing a lot is harmful because there are times when the play is clear and there is not much to do, it depends a lot on the position, the stak and the way of playing
 
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bowserdon

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Pocket 10s and pocket Js I call and fold if overcard and someone bets
 
NWPatriot

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The likelihood of any player having any pocket pair is 1 in 17 (~6%). With 9 players at a table, there is ~50% probability that one player is dealt a pocket pair (9/17=.53) on any given deal. There is a ~28% probability that 2 players will be dealt a pocket pair on any given deal.

Having two players with a pocket pair isn't very unreasonable. About 1 in 4 hands. Specifically having TT and KK dealt on the same hand is more specific and obviously less frequent, but if you had 99, the result would be the same whether they had TT/JJ/QQ/KK/AA.

The discussion above about thinking in ranges to determine your equity is more valuable to us, but there are no rules that say the SB or BB can't be dealt a big pocket pair. As we all have seen.

Good luck and God bless.
 
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