Weird day and some pondering

xOneCoolHandx

xOneCoolHandx

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So, today I played in 4 freerolls, in the first three I got knocked out in three consecutive hands. In the first one, I was cruising along, even though it was early, I had doubled my stack a few times when I caught QQ on the button. There had been an raise from the UTG player, but he raised every hand preflop, so I 3 bet him. He pushed, I called. He had AK and caught both on the flop. We had nearly equal stacks so I was left with just a few chips so I closed the table and jumped to another tournament. The first hand I pick up was AK suited. The pot again had been raised. I re-raise and get called. Flop comes A 10 8. I bet, he calls. Turn is a J giving me top pair/top kicker, gutshot straight draw and 4 to the flush. River is a 3. Knocked out again. Jump into another tournament. Jump into another tournament, first hand I get JJ, raise preflop and get re-raised. I push and get called by 77. He flopped a set. I jumped into a fourth and I won!

During the tournament I won, I was in the BB when the CU raised. I defended with Q2s. The flop came giving me 4 to a flush. CU raised and I called. Miss the turn but I didn't feel like the CU was very strong so I lead out. He calls. I hit the flush on the river and check. He bets strong and I raise, he calls with AA. I was thinking back through tournaments and I think in every tournament I have ever won, I have given at least one bad beat to someone else. Later in this tournament, I was sitting with a huge chip lead (I was over 100k in chips to the next guy down) when I caught KQs in EP. I raise and it folds around to the button, he pushes, BB then pushes over the top. I felt like I had the worst hand of the three and the pot odds were 't really there for me to make the call but I did. Button had AJ and BB had 99 and I catch a queen on the flop and end up with a flush. Still later, I take another bad beat (get aces cracked, but the other player was just under average so it didn't hurt much).

Has anyone else ever noticed that on your way to winning (or deep runs) in a tournament that you can play great but also need to get lucky a few times to win?
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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The KQ situation was even money all hands had around 33% equity and i wouldnt even really consider a 60/40 a bad beat to be honest. But ye i understand what you mean you cetainly need a bit of luck to win some of those flip or small underdog type hands to win a tournament.
 
This Fish Chums

This Fish Chums

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Has anyone else ever noticed that on your way to winning (or deep runs) in a tournament that you can play great but also need to get lucky a few times to win?

I have had bad luck days like that. I've also had good luck days where they fall my way. I've also had medium luck days where it goes back and forth. My playing style opens me up to seeing lots of flops and I can tell you the better hand does win more often then not.
 
xOneCoolHandx

xOneCoolHandx

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The KQ situation was even money all hands had around 33% equity and i wouldnt even really consider a 60/40 a bad beat to be honest. But ye i understand what you mean you cetainly need a bit of luck to win some of those flip or small underdog type hands to win a tournament.

I totally agree. Every tournament comes down to the outcome of a few hands throughout the tournament. In this one I got on a heater, at one point I had called a push for about 1/5 of my stack with Q2s and flopped the nut flush (the guy had been pushing any two after taking a bad beat and tilting), later I opened from EP with 10/7o and flopped 4 to a straight. Now, admittedly, at this point I was the overwhelming chip leader and I was bullying the table because we were getting close to the money. But, it just seems like sometimes, a tournament is yours and sometimes, any hand you play is going to get crushed. Karma, poker gods, the Force, call it what you will, but it seems to be true.
 
PaxMundi

PaxMundi

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I totally agree. Every tournament comes down to the outcome of a few hands throughout the tournament. In this one I got on a heater, at one point I had called a push for about 1/5 of my stack with Q2s and flopped the nut flush (the guy had been pushing any two after taking a bad beat and tilting), later I opened from EP with 10/7o and flopped 4 to a straight. Now, admittedly, at this point I was the overwhelming chip leader and I was bullying the table because we were getting close to the money. But, it just seems like sometimes, a tournament is yours and sometimes, any hand you play is going to get crushed. Karma, poker gods, the Force, call it what you will, but it seems to be true.

That does seem to be the way with poker your either on a total heater and cant lose a hand or bad beats are raining down out of nowhere. there never seems to be any middle ground in poker
 
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marcumx

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YES majority of the tourneys i've ever won or reached the ft came from getting lucky on flips it's the way most ppl stack up
 
Vanderwolfe

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So, today I played in 4 freerolls, in the first three I got knocked out in three consecutive hands. In the first one, I was cruising along, even though it was early, I had doubled my stack a few times when I caught QQ on the button. There had been an raise from the UTG player, but he raised every hand preflop, so I 3 bet him. He pushed, I called. He had AK and caught both on the flop. We had nearly equal stacks so I was left with just a few chips so I closed the table and jumped to another tournament. The first hand I pick up was AK suited. The pot again had been raised. I re-raise and get called. Flop comes A 10 8. I bet, he calls. Turn is a J giving me top pair/top kicker, gutshot straight draw and 4 to the flush. River is a 3. Knocked out again. Jump into another tournament. Jump into another tournament, first hand I get JJ, raise preflop and get re-raised. I push and get called by 77. He flopped a set. I jumped into a fourth and I won!

During the tournament I won, I was in the BB when the CU raised. I defended with Q2s. The flop came giving me 4 to a flush. CU raised and I called. Miss the turn but I didn't feel like the CU was very strong so I lead out. He calls. I hit the flush on the river and check. He bets strong and I raise, he calls with AA. I was thinking back through tournaments and I think in every tournament I have ever won, I have given at least one bad beat to someone else. Later in this tournament, I was sitting with a huge chip lead (I was over 100k in chips to the next guy down) when I caught KQs in EP. I raise and it folds around to the button, he pushes, BB then pushes over the top. I felt like I had the worst hand of the three and the pot odds were 't really there for me to make the call but I did. Button had AJ and BB had 99 and I catch a queen on the flop and end up with a flush. Still later, I take another bad beat (get aces cracked, but the other player was just under average so it didn't hurt much).

Has anyone else ever noticed that on your way to winning (or deep runs) in a tournament that you can play great but also need to get lucky a few times to win?



Skill has to do with about 60% of what actually goes on and 40% is luck which luck can run really terrible on your side if you are not careful. For example I was chip leader and we are 9 handed at the final table. As soon as we were dealt the first set of cards for the final table I swear it felt like a set up! I would get great cards like KK, QQ JJ or I would get KQ suites or AA but every time I would get great cards or even decent cards I would completely miss the flop turn and river. I had KK and the flop was A,2,4 all suited diamonds ♦️ and I had a club and a spade then the turn came and it was a 7 of....you guessed it diamonds! Like every time I would get a pair in my hand the board would be a straight, fullhouse, or a flush and I would completely miss it and I knew I was beat every time and it felt like crap. I think you can have all the skills in the world but if the cards don’t run your way it can turn on you very quickly
 
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AlbieTross

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I'll often find myself either on this great winning streak (especially in jackpot poker on ACR) and awful losing streaks. In the end, the losing streaks tend to prevail haha
 
xOneCoolHandx

xOneCoolHandx

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Skill has to do with about 60% of what actually goes on and 40% is luck which luck can run really terrible on your side if you are not careful. For example I was chip leader and we are 9 handed at the final table. As soon as we were dealt the first set of cards for the final table I swear it felt like a set up! I would get great cards like KK, QQ JJ or I would get KQ suites or AA but every time I would get great cards or even decent cards I would completely miss the flop turn and river. I had KK and the flop was A,2,4 all suited diamonds ♦️ and I had a club and a spade then the turn came and it was a 7 of....you guessed it diamonds! Like every time I would get a pair in my hand the board would be a straight, fullhouse, or a flush and I would completely miss it and I knew I was beat every time and it felt like crap. I think you can have all the skills in the world but if the cards don’t run your way it can turn on you very quickly


Your final table story was the story of my night last night (and a few weeks ago when I posted this). The night before, I sat in 4 50 cent MTTs and one $1 MTT and finished ITM in all of them making 4 final tables (highest finish was 3rd). Then last night, I get into the ACR CC FR and not even 10 or 15 minutes into the game I catch aces from the SB. Made a pot sized raise which the BB and a mid position limper called. Flop comes J54. I check, BB makes 3/4 pot sized bets so I think he has Jx. Limper folds and I push (a pot-sized raise would have put me almost all in anyway). As I hoped, he called and had J10. Turn comes a jack :mad:. So, I wait the 45-ish minutes until the league game starts on PS. Not even 5 hands into the game, I catch 10 10 from UTG. I raise pot (very standard for me). Button makes a small raise not even doubling my original raise. At this point maybe the better option would have been to flat call and see a flop, but because I have experience with this player (and the hand before he made the same same raise and called an all in with A8), I did not think he was very strong and I pushed figuring that with my table image that he would realize that I did have a fairly big hand and lay his down or I would be at least a small favorite. He calls with aces (irony much?). Since I was steaming, I took a break to watch videos, post on here and do some writing and then got back on ACR. Entered a Venom and built up a pretty decent sized stack until I had QQ run into aces. Next tournament was a 50 cent MTT and once again, an early position player (that I have played against often) raises. I have AQs on the button but I flat call him because I know I can outplay him postflop 90% of the time. Flop an ace and he bets (he is a persistent CBer but also plays any ace from any position at any time so I am guessing he has an ace) knowing that he probably has an ace I raise and he pushes. I call and he DOES have an ace -- AK. Enter another 50 cent MTT and have JJ run into aces. Switch to BCP and have KK run into aces and next tournament have AK run into aces.

Finally, I go back to ACR and manage to take down a win, but I took two bad beats even during that one. Fortunately, I had sizable stacks that were able to withstand the bad beats and I managed to win a couple of flips and put bad beats on a couple of other players (there was one hand that had been pot raised preflop, I meant to fold but misclicked to double his bet with Q2s, he pushed but the push was not even a full bet more, so I had to call and I managed to eek out a win)

I do believe skill accounts for more than 60% of the game. Really, I believe only about 5-10% of the game is luck. But then there are days like yesterday that I would almost flip that around. HAHA
 
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