Is this True?

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Fushicho

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I've had a thought for a while and I just want to check the logic.

Is this statement true:
"To win a hand of poker either your opponent(s) have to make a mistake or you have to get lucky."

When you think about it if you bet / raise and are called and win the hand then either:
A. You have the best hand, in which case your opponent made a mistake
or B. Your opponent has the best hand but you make a better hand later.

When your opponent bets / raises and you call the same applies.

Discuss!
(I just had a thought that you can just win with the best cards all the time, and your opponent folding, but you get the drift)
 
BelFish

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There is a basic theorem of poker. You can read Sklansky. There, the word "mistake" means not just a direct mistake, but a mistake as if the opponent made it, seeing your cards ))
 
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pjokay

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Yeah as above its considered a sum of zero game, all the the correct plays minus any mistakes and in the long run the player making the least mistakes should profit the most.
 
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booosteeer23

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Luck and skill in poker is 50/50.
 
Alizona

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There is a basic theorem of poker. You can read Sklansky. There, the word "mistake" means not just a direct mistake, but a mistake as if the opponent made it, seeing your cards ))

This is the correct answer, and contemplating Sklansky's theorem is well worth the time spent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundamental_theorem_of_poker

The fundamental theorem of poker is a principle first articulated by David Sklansky that he believes expresses the essential nature of poker as a game of decision-making in the face of incomplete information.
Every time you play a hand differently from the way you would have played it if you could see all your opponents' cards, they gain; and every time you play your hand the same way you would have played it if you could see all their cards, they lose. Conversely, every time opponents play their hands differently from the way they would have if they could see all your cards, you gain; and every time they play their hands the same way they would have played if they could see all your cards, you lose.
The fundamental theorem is stated in common language, but its formulation is based on mathematical reasoning. Each decision that is made in poker can be analyzed in terms of the expected value of the payoff of a decision. The correct decision to make in a given situation is the decision that has the largest expected value. If a player could see all of their opponents' cards, they would always be able to calculate the correct decision with mathematical certainty, and the less they deviate from these correct decisions, the better their expected long-term results.

As stated, since we can never know the exact cards our opponent is holding, we can never exactly compute our expected value in a poker hand... the best we can do is assign our opponent a "range" of holdings, and then we can analyze our "expected value" against that range. We can't do it during a hand because online poker sites will typically have a rule that prohibits such real-time analysis, but we can review our play after our poker session is completed for the day, and this is where we learn how to estimate our expected values against certain ranges by use of a poker equity calculator. Just run millions of different scenarios and memorize the outcomes, then you'll be a top-level pro. :) It takes years, obviously, to do this. If it were easy, everyone would be a well known pro, but it isn't easy. The more time you invest, the better your game will be for it. Good luck!
 
Collin Moshman

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It's an interesting question and nice answers so far in the thread. I personally think whether it's true just depends on whether you're using broad or colloquial definitions of "mistake" and "luck."

Imagine that I have a 7bb stack and open-shove with KQ in the small blind. The big blind folds 32o. In this case, I win the hand and my opponent hasn't made a mistake. But it was lucky in the sense that I got a fold.
 
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bidearm

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yes especially when you have the opponents on the run and are winning pots then you can start being a bully and this will prob work
 
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Fushicho

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Wow. I'm speechless.
Making a post that's in the same sphere as "The fundamental theorem of poker a principle first articulated by David Sklansky".


Thanks to all the replies I've had. This might just improve my game.
 
BriceNice

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What if you make a mistake AND you get lucky
 
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eagleaces

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Thats it

Thats it and thats why you hear ppl saying stuff like induce the bluff and semi bluffs. Inuce the bluff = opponent making mistakes. and semi bluffs = getting lucky. Now the skill part is all you need to learn.
 
rock0001

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there are a few exceptions of that rule. For example you can make a bet and win the hand because villain folds a missing draw. I dont think thats luck on your side or bad play from villain.
 
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noskilluk

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Wow. I'm speechless.
Making a post that's in the same sphere as "The fundamental theorem of poker a principle first articulated by David Sklansky".


Thanks to all the replies I've had. This might just improve my game.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day... :D
 
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