hi hi everyone!!! :ciao:
i like to share true story, come to mind in study of poker math.
background…
part my degree take courses in probability & statistics (SPSS). before I interest nlh - study & play much live
blackjack, i good at it, with optimal play, staying focused & sober keep house edge at 0.5% at our local
casinos
story…
few years ago out with friend for dinner in vancouver. in hallway by bathrooms i find wide, heavy gold band with diamond in it. i give to staff. it late we near ready leave, old guy in white uniform come to us. was his ring, he cook helper in kitchen. he incredibly appreciate.
seems ring from his dead wife, mean much to him. restaurant about to close, he ask buy us a drink,join at table.
his name klaus,very sweet fascinatin guy, when become 2-3 drinks we talk lots.
say end of month he move to las vegas retire. said he spent last few years develop
roulette betting system, to pay his retirement. my ears perk up.
i studied roulette & various systems. consider roulette (2 zeros) a scam with house edge on even money bets about 5 1/4%.
klaus with his pension, all he want do is win $200 each day, he save $22k usd for this adventure
his pension cover more than his rent, he goin live in basement of brother-in law, he tell us his secret system cause i interested in this & return his ring
klaus simple system is...
each day go any casino, watch roulette wheels, wait & when go 5 times in a row same colour (say red)... bet next spin $200 on black. if win - he go home be done for day. if lose, he bet black again $400 & if lose next $800 etc until win $200 and go home.
i dubious girl, ask if he know power of doubling, like fable of peasant ask reward of emperor - one grain of rice on first square of chess board, then double each square... so 1 grain, 2, 4, 8 etc... by square 64... results in more rice than is on the planet earth!
or if work for you 5 weeks, i say pay me this ok?
first day 1 penny, then for each of next days keep double it.
by week five it over 1 million dollars lol?
i ask what of table limits?
he say in vegas he can play at certain tables have $10k max. i say, ok what happen when hit max? he say you just need ask they raise limit (yikes) in his years of record roulette spins, that so so so seldom where same colour come 10x consecutive, says odds of that like be hit by lightning. hummm...
i take napkin, write it out, by spin 6 you at table max... if they allow you, by spin 7 you bet $12,800 to make $200 & your odds be about 46%, is two green zeros. (if have monies & they allow spin 8 be $25,600 omg)
he no convinced. we end by him give his b-inlaw phone number so when i come vegas that spring for wedding we get together, that spring i catch up with klaus.
best was he show good eat places. the buffet at main street station (downtown) wow spectacular & cost dinner $11.99, in ny ny the best burger ever had at shake shack under $10, plus enjoy $1 beer at casino royale.
all great, i stay at mandalay, need bank loan eat or drink there, anyway klaus doin fine & his scheme work well, he happy enjoy lv on $200 a day spending monies, other than his scheme, he gamble zero.
next fall i in vegas
try contact klaus, no luck - talk his b-inlaw...
klaus loose all saving return
canada. wow, so sad, i cringe, shiver imagine klaus at the roulette, bets what left his life savings… yikes… to win the elusive $200 *cries*
this come to mind in study poker math ev & odds. i need remember probability is predicted outcome over an infinite number of events, more than a zillion lol
if toss a coin & last dozen times it come up heads, that has zero relevance to the next toss. each event is independent to all previous events. the chance for a tails remain exactly same.