Poker swings.

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pineknob

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not sure if this is a new topic or not.. everyone has poker swings.. win 3 in a row.. lose six.. I don't care how you deal with it.. I want to know why you think you have them! is it purely variance? or do you think you vary your play enough that you cause the swings?
 
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I believe there is a cyclic variance of the cards that are dealt to you and they do vary a lot considering the quantity of cards that are dealt out. There are times you just can't catch a card or cards and other times they smack you in the face and there is nothing you can do wrong. These types of variances can be fleeting throughout the game(s) or they can stay with you throughout many games. Some folk call it a lucky or unlucky streak. Lady luck is another term used. Call it what you will there are times you do need to rest and walk away if the variance continues to be bad.
 
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I don't call it luck, it's more probability. Once i got 3 times in a row pocket of jacks. I thought "what the f..", this must be bugged! But no, it's a question of low probability of happening, but doesn't mean impossible. So, once you start playing poker, you must expect everything.
 
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pineknob

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I think variance is definitely at play but I feel like subtle difference in how I play poker really affect my winning. If I'm losing.. I look for little fixes like tightening up my range or expanding it.. changing bet sizing and hand selection in relation to the other players..
 
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whosdaboss25

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3 wins and 6 losses is that not many games to compare you have to compare hundreds and thousands of games to get a true variance factor sometimes you can get a 10 or 15 game down swing when you play 10,000 or 15,000 games but a 5 or 6 games down swing is nothing you have to have 20 to 40 buy ins to cover this variance that's why they to have that many but ins to cover these bad down swing because they know it is possible for them to have them in a certain set of games even the best of pros have them. That why they always have a certain number of buy ins to survive the down swing and live comfortable through it so they don't have to worry. So I would worry about the little 5 or 6 game downswing just take it in stride.
 
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pineknob

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3 wins and 6 losses is that not many games to compare you have to compare hundreds and thousands of games to get a true variance factor sometimes you can get a 10 or 15 game down swing when you play 10,000 or 15,000 games but a 5 or 6 games down swing is nothing you have to have 20 to 40 buy ins to cover this variance that's why they to have that many but ins to cover these bad down swing because they know it is possible for them to have them in a certain set of games even the best of pros have them. That why they always have a certain number of buy ins to survive the down swing and live comfortable through it so they don't have to worry. So I would worry about the little 5 or 6 game downswing just take it in stride.



whosedaboss.. i think you might have missed the point of my question.. i just was using an example of swing.. doesn't matter how much the swing is.. but what do you think is the cause?
 
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pineknob

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I don't call it luck, it's more probability. Once i got 3 times in a row pocket of jacks. I thought "what the f..", this must be bugged! But no, it's a question of low probability of happening, but doesn't mean impossible. So, once you start playing poker, you must expect everything.



I guess it's good to prepare for everything.. and I am thinking that overtime our win percentage is not affected by variance but our skill.. My take is when I swing bad I want to make sure I make any changes that I can that improve my overall win percentage rather than accept 'im running bad' so things like adjusting my play to throw people off.. adjusting my bet sizing.. adjusting how much I talk at the table.. adjusting my range in various positions.. little tweeks seem to make a huge difference. I guess I just hate accepting my losses are due to variance all the time.. unless of course my KK get cracked by threes flopping a set..
 
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Poker can't be without variance. Any player has it. Even the strongest.
 
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Personally I believe it is because I vary my play depending on all the factors like table, players, game selection, even table limits. But when the smoke clears "It's all on me."
 
Yoda82

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For me, my down swings have started with 1 or 2 bad plays, and then not having the mental discipline yet to refocus and get back on my game. So I make a marginal decision, then compound it with frustration. Then, my mental clarity is shot, and everything is just does away. And playing online, it's harder to step away from the table, because everything moves so much faster, you're playing multiple tables, and the next thing you know, 4 tournaments are in the gutter.
 
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In such cases, I make a short break and it always helps me. After a break, I usually play very carefully and almost do not allow mistakes.
 
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In such cases, I make a short break and it always helps me. After a break, I usually play very carefully and almost do not allow mistakes.



I like to do that too!!!
 
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pineknob

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sometimes i tilt too.. I think there are tilt reasons for bad swings and just little things that cause it outside variance.. if you think variance is the only reason you are losing... how can you ever improve your game ? what you are saying is that you are perfect.

For me, my down swings have started with 1 or 2 bad plays, and then not having the mental discipline yet to refocus and get back on my game. So I make a marginal decision, then compound it with frustration. Then, my mental clarity is shot, and everything is just does away. And playing online, it's harder to step away from the table, because everything moves so much faster, you're playing multiple tables, and the next thing you know, 4 tournaments are in the gutter.
 
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Swings are a function of your ability, the higher your ROI the shorter your swings will be. Everyone will have variance its just a matter of how long the swings last.
 
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Downswings will happen and when they do I take a break , sometimes a few day and sometimes a few weeks. Use your down time to study the game a make some adjustments.
 
Eric Salvador

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Every player causes some of there variance but winning players that's rarely the case. If players aren't putting in work to get better and finding the areas they give up too much equity then they'll continue to create there own variance
 
WiredKs

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I'd like to say it's all variance, but in moments of honesty, I can often identify outright mistakes that I made. I might have overvalued top two pair, laid down AK incorrectly, or made a fishy call when I should have known better.

Variance can be a whipping boy brought out to explain why it didn't go well today. It can be too painful to admit we're not that good or evaluate weak points in our game. Blaming "variance" can mean we don't have to go there.
 
eetenor

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A game %

not sure if this is a new topic or not.. everyone has poker swings.. win 3 in a row.. lose six.. I don't care how you deal with it.. I want to know why you think you have them! is it purely variance? or do you think you vary your play enough that you cause the swings?


Thanks for posting.

Swings always have to do with variance but also human fallibility. Very few players can play their A game all the time. When we drop to our B game or below we make mistakes. It takes very few mistakes in NL to turn a session negative or increase the amount of loss in a session.

We can only work on our mindset and our poker skills to limit the number of mistakes that we make and the scope of those mistakes.

Here is a website for training mindset.

http://jaredtendlerpoker.com/mentalgameofpoker/

Hope this helps.

:):)
 
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pineknob

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Thanks for posting.

Swings always have to do with variance but also human fallibility. Very few players can play their A game all the time. When we drop to our B game or below we make mistakes. It takes very few mistakes in NL to turn a session negative or increase the amount of loss in a session.

We can only work on our mindset and our poker skills to limit the number of mistakes that we make and the scope of those mistakes.

Here is a website for training mindset.



http://jaredtendlerpoker.com/mentalgameofpoker/

Hope this helps.

:):)

thanks eetenor!!! i will check this out.
 
vov4ik

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I have such fluctuations in the game that I can win in small tournaments 2 or 3 in a row but it happens that I can't win 2-3 and I win only 1 tournament, I play the same everywhere and it happens that in a cash game I can win many hands in a row but then the card stops falling out and I lose, this is a game and different moments can occur in a tournament game in which you can win one tournament and make a profit, but if a good card comes to another tournament, you can try to win and more tournaments in a row!
 
0546474

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the better the player is emotionally prepared and the less he makes mistakes the more stable his game but unfortunately I am far from perfect !!!
 
Dzob

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The variance affects everyone. I think it takes several years to accept the game. The best approach is to focus on good decisions and not on short-term results.
 
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not sure if this is a new topic or not.. everyone has poker swings.. win 3 in a row.. lose six.. I don't care how you deal with it.. I want to know why you think you have them! is it purely variance? or do you think you vary your play enough that you cause the swings?


Its such a cyclical game. All you can do is control what you can. If you made the right move and got beat by the flop turn or river, than don't get down on yourself.
 
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pineknob

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Its such a cyclical game. All you can do is control what you can. If you made the right move and got beat by the flop turn or river, than don't get down on yourself.



psuedo.. I rarely get down on myself.. but I am also trying to get myself up.. thats why I spend time thinking about even the moves that seem right when I lose..
 
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pineknob

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I'd like to say it's all variance, but in moments of honesty, I can often identify outright mistakes that I made. I might have overvalued top two pair, laid down AK incorrectly, or made a fishy call when I should have known better.

Variance can be a whipping boy brought out to explain why it didn't go well today. It can be too painful to admit we're not that good or evaluate weak points in our game. Blaming "variance" can mean we don't have to go there.



right.. like every time I shove with deuces and I lose its the fault of variance... just the way it goes? not
 
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