Poker - How much is luck vs. How much is skill

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manutd777111

Rising Star
The more poker I play and watch, the more I think luck is the biggest factor in winning at poker. Poker is not a game of skill. You can be the most skillfull player in the world and get drawn out on. The best you can hope for is to get your money in the pot when the odds are in your favor and hope nobody draws out on you. You can also get your money in when you have good pot odds, but you are then hoping to outdraw someone. I see mediocre players beat better players a lot because they were luckier than them. Look at the world series of poker. Is the guy who won a better poker player than Phil Ivey, Daniel Negraneau and others. I don't think he is, he just got luckier than they did.
 
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Dax

Guest
Luck...

I have to agree with you. Luck and loose play (some like to call it guts), but flat out loose play and luck. My KK got beaten 3 times yesterday, 3 times. All by statistically inferior hands. My JJ got beaten by A 5 hearts when he called my all in and pulled the Jh on the river to complete his flush. He called the all in pre flop, by the way.

Seems like any donk with an Ace will go all in with it, and they seem to win more often than not. The only thing I can think of to combat this is NOT to go all in unless you have a made hand, otherwise the donk draw is on!
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
This has been discussed to death. :p

In the short term results are probably 90% luck, in the long term (we're talking many years or hundreds of thousands of hands) its more like 90% skill.
 
gjshand

gjshand

Rock Star
Depended on if you're talking about Tournement poker or Cash games, it'll also depend on the Limit and whether its a live or online game.

Here's my take on Luck:

Tournement poker by far requires the most luck. Skill however plays a huge roll too, put it this was, if your a very skillfull player who finds yourself in a hand where you need to get lucky the chances if you don't then your chip stack will be able to accomodate the loss. (Playing well over a period of time should have given you a decent stack)

Live games vs online games require less luck and more skill, online players inherently "Gamble" more and as such you need to be "lucky" not to get outdrawn (Best hand or not)

Also i have found the higher the limit at the table the more skill and less luck becomes involved, lets face it losing $2 to an all-in on a 10c/20c table is totally differant to being involved in a $500 pot at a $5/$10 table.

I beleive there is more luck involved in poker than most people realise (or like to admit) if i were asked to put a figure on it maybe 70% Skill and 30% luck.

i'm sure you'll get other ideas but this is just my take.
 
The_Missnary

The_Missnary

Guest
Single table tourneys (10 persons) rely on solid play and fundamentals to be consistently successful.

Sure cash tables can have their share of bad beats, as can any table, but the solidly consistent knowledgable player will eventually make more, and be more successful, then a once dumb-luck dude. Especially in a live game you should be able to read what a weaker player is trying to do. Here's the key: If you consistently get your money in when you've got the best of it (and I'm not talking 50/50 races here) you will come out ahead consistently. That's just the way it is. Look at the final tables of the wsop events. Ever notice many of the same dudes are ALWAYS there? Because solid play eventually wins out (not every single time) of a few lucky draws.
 
The_Missnary

The_Missnary

Guest
Dax said:
I have to agree with you. Luck and loose play (some like to call it guts), but flat out loose play and luck. My KK got beaten 3 times yesterday, 3 times. All by statistically inferior hands. My JJ got beaten by A 5 hearts when he called my all in and pulled the Jh on the river to complete his flush. He called the all in pre flop, by the way.

Seems like any donk with an Ace will go all in with it, and they seem to win more often than not. The only thing I can think of to combat this is NOT to go all in unless you have a made hand, otherwise the donk draw is on!

But how many times did your statistically favored hands hold up? A lot more than three times, I can tell you that. That's the thing-- people never take into account the times they won the pots they should have won. We usually on remember hands we should have won and did not.
 
dinosdynasty

dinosdynasty

Rock Star
That's the 2nd thing that I told my wife while teaching her poker "Don't be mad if you got your money in with the best hand, poker happens"

The 1st rule was PATIENCE GRASSHOPPER!
 
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