Paradigm-ish problem re: odds and number of players

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Something I've thought about a little lately, especially considering I've been playing more FL where you have to refer to odds a little more frequently.

Stoxtrader mentions it in his book; the only example I can really think of is the one that FP pointed out in the thread about a video of one of my FL sessions: https://www.cardschat.com/f53/5-1-fl-session-no-audio-98217/

Example hand:

pokerstars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4
diamond.gif
, 7
diamond.gif
.
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) J
diamond.gif
, 9
heart.gif
, 7
heart.gif
(4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Button calls, Hero folds

FP suggests calling since we've got about 6 outs (two 7s, three 6s and a backdoor FD for ~1 out) and we're getting good enough odds to do so.

This isn't the best example, but the problem I'm talking about is when we have more players in a pot (two in this ex), we have a greater chance of being behind. In this case we could be drawing even slimmer than 6 outs since someone else could have a set or a bigger two pair which would crush any 7 or 4 we could hit. I mean we could be up against T8d here and be nearly dead.

So what do we do in situations like this (again, my 74s hand isn't the best example)? Do we count our outs as partial outs or something or do we just play it straight forward and assume our 6 outs are clean and just call?

Don't know exactly where I'm going with this; it's a little hard to put in words right now for me. Got ritalin flowing through my veins and it isn't exactly helping either.
 
Vollycat

Vollycat

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IMO....Pretty easy fold for me. The chance of having the best hand so far is slim, the chance of improving to the best is poor as well, there are 2 people in the pot, and the pot is so small there really isn't a lot of reason to contest it. Given no reads on people, yada, yada... meh. No reason to war unless you happen to be gearing for action on later hands--and then you have to ask what kind of thinking player your villian is, because if he's a simple donk, your 'setup' won't work anyway.

I'd fold given every reason you already cleared up. The odds are barely there, and the overall size of pot really doesn't constitute a fight here. If you do want to battle though, I would not call--raise it and clean out the other player and get some information on the lead villian.

I lean towards weak/tight though so take all that with a grain of salt!
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Nobody else?

A more extreme example of this would be something like this:

We hold T8o in the BB and call a raise in a 5-way pot. We flop a gutshot on a J7K flop, but it's to the smaller straight. We end up somehow getting odds on a call for the gutshot, but with 5 players already in we could be drawing dead to QT.

Where do we draw the line for calling when we're considering how likely it is that we're already beat based on how many players are in the hand and our pot odds?

I know that every situation is different, but I'm kind of generalizing here.
 
dj11

dj11

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I can't imagine how you would get odds here. Gutshot is a bad example here I think.

OESD could happen often, and might be easier to think about. Most all the readers here will have experienced the OESD conundrum, and the closly associated FD (very similar hand odds).

Assuming for a moment that whatever you do will not cripple you if things go bad, then in a 5 way pot, the odds you say exist almost demand a call.

If you are comfortable chasing a gutshot, the odds could also demand a call here.

In this case (the gutshot) though your other outs (pairing) may be useless.

Perhaps the lower the hand odds, the higher your comfort level and the realistic the pure math part of the problem can be relied on. At some point though the pot odds vs hand odds break down from a human understanding perspective because of so many still in the pot.

My reply here should also contain a caution to err on the side of survivability, and ask why the hell are you chasing gutshots?
 
Cheetah

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You have to discount the outs that are iffy and include all outs (such as backdoor FD).

In your first example you would discount your 5 outs from having one pair because there is a flush draw and some of your outs may not be good. In that case, the 4h is not a full out for 2 pairs since it may complete a flush for someone.

Also, because a str8 is possible, you should discount somwhat there as well. However, your 7 and 4 outs don't help a str8 draw. I would say you discount the possible str8 and possible flush draw in hearts a combined 1 out. If you feel that's too liberal, discount by 2 at the most.

If you discount by one, you are left with a total of 5 effective outs. So you need 8 to 1 to call. The pot is giving you immediate odds of 6 to 1. If you think the BB will call, then you can barely justify a call here. It is borderline in my view with a bias towards folding (you are OOP as well).

But more generally, you must accoiunt for all outs and discont appropriately. If not, you may find yourself on the wrong side of math: either calling when you shouldn't (if outs are not discounted), or folding when you should call(because outs were not counted).
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Bah, I'm not explaining myself properly here and you guys are making this an issue in outs-counting.

brb when I think of a better example :eek:
 
NineLions

NineLions

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To me it sound similar to the thread that I think you started a while back about when to fold pocket pairs, if everyone is in the hand, etc, etc.

I don't remember the specifics any more, but idea of more hands seeing the flop reducing your chance of any given playable hand being worthwhile seems like a similar idea to what you're alluding to here.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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OESD could happen often, and might be easier to think about. Most all the readers here will have experienced the OESD conundrum, and the closly associated FD (very similar hand odds).

Assuming for a moment that whatever you do will not cripple you if things go bad, then in a 5 way pot, the odds you say exist almost demand a call.

In a five way pot, odds would demand a raise in limit, actually (even on the turn). If you have 25% equity you are making more than your share of every dollar that goes into the pot = bump it up!
 
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