Online Poker Will Never Be Harder Than It Is Right Now

L

Leatherass

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I have to disagree that people will look back and see this as the "hardest times" in poker.

Using a sports analogy, name a sport where, if the modern competitor was able to go back in time, he would struggle to do as well as he does in his own time.

The modern competitor always has the benefits of better training methods, better access to information, greater understanding of underlying principles etc etc.

This greater inderstanding is a result of standing on the shoulders of giants. Future competitors will always look back and think that if only they could go back in time knowing what they know now they would destroy the competition.

For this reason I dont think online poker is harder than it ever will be in the future.

The only caveat is that when US law catches up with the rest of the world there will be a sudden influx of bad players and yes the games will be easier but unless Americans are genetically dumber than the rest of the world this will be a temporary blip on the poker scene because they will learn and learn faster then the people before them because of the shoulders of giants principle. Some of these players will be remain bad but some will become great. I think that within a couple of years the player pool would contain the same ratio of fish to decent regs as it did before the US legalised online poker. The player pool will be bigger but the ratios will return to what they are now.

Of course as each day passes the standard raises fractionally.

You will look back in 10 years time and wonder how players (in 10 years time) even manage to get going because the standard will be so much higher than it is now. In fact if you cast your mind back to when you began, how much has the standard changed in that time? Would you like to be just starting out now?

I agree with you, but I think there are two separate debates here. I have no doubt players will get better and better until the end of time. But I would like to think of this as a low point in people's ability to make money. Basically the pro to casual player ratio has gotten so high that there isn't enough money to go around unless you are one of the total whales that makes money off of the pros.

If the ratio kept getting higher and higher, then there would be not enough money to even live off of, and therefore a shift in the market would be forced to occur.
 
atlantafalcons0

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There will always be new players and superusers.

LOL
 
L

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A definition of irony: one of the longest-serving coaches at one of the biggest online coaching sites, venting about the number of regular players who are now very good at poker.

You are exactly right. I can not debate that :)
 
PokerVic

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Don't forget predation.

It must be horrible for a ring game fish in this day and age. (and this is coming from someone who is definitely a fish at many limits) As soon as you sit down, you've got a waitlist of sharks waiting to tear you apart. This means the fish lose faster than they normally would, and many who would have stuck around end up quitting altogether.

This is why I think Rush Poker might help things. Random seating is good for the fish, as they are less likely to be on a table full of sharks (depending on ratios), and it also "spreads the fish around" for all the players to get a piece. I hope they never increase the amount of Rush tables you can play, and I'd actually like it if they reduced it to 1 or 2 at a given stake.
 
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I really don't see why the US "not" being allowed to play online poker has an effect on the game and how hard it is today, we are all still playing right? Where there is a will there is a way and we are all still depositing and playing online.

I agree with where Stu is going with this.....today's games are harder because poker players are becoming more smart and educating themselves with the game more. We are taking the information that is out there and molding our game into a style that works for us.

Don't take this the wrong way Dusty, and I hope I can explain this the correct way...... Poker is a business, the business has many "side ventures" such as training sites, books, software ect. If we look back and ask ourselves, why is the game of poker seem more hard today? Maybe we should look at it like this: Because the top pro's and the people that have a winning strategy are sharing this information with others and helping them become winning players. Think about it... Say you are a player that crushes the 1/2NL game, you have a great winning strategy and share that with 10 people that you train. Those 10 people become winning players, that is 10 less people that your potentiality going to profit from. They coach 10 others, ect ect....

When the "Poker Boom" first started it was full of people looking to make a buck because it looked easy on TV. The winning players saw this and found out it was a great way for them to make money as well by charging these newbies with coaching, training, ect. Now these newbies are becoming coaches and continue to share their details.....

Also to elaborate on the multi-table topic..... You have a guy sitting at 24 tables it does take away from the fish that are out there.

I'm sure when you first started Dusty you could play 4 tables and make the money you make today off of 24 tables...... The game has changed, people are taking the time to learn it and that makes it difficult.


You are totally right about poker training. There is no question that it has been maybe the largest contributor to how difficult the games are today. The thing is, whether people liked it or not, it was going to exist because there is such a big market for it and there would always be people willing to share their strategy for risk free money.

With respect to poker in the USA and you saying "if there is a will, there is a way", you are totally right. IF there is a will, there is a way. But certainly you can agree that it is not the best marketing strategy to tell your customers, "if there is a will, there is a way." Also, if you talk to most Americans they are under the impression online poker is illegal. So waht we have now is a product where it is difficult to obtain that most people think is illegal. Sounds a lot like marijuana. Can you imagine how many more people would smoke pot if you could just buy it on every street corner like alcohol, vs having to grow it yourself or buy it through a connection like it is right now? That is pretty much the best analogy I can come up with.
 
PokerVic

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Can you imagine how many more people would smoke pot if you could just buy it on every street corner like alcohol, vs having to grow it yourself or buy it through a connection like it is right now?

Very good analogy. This kind of situation only filters out the most casual of poker players or pot smokers. The difference being, these casual poker players are the ones feeding the most money into the system.
 
KyleJRM

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One factor is that as the profits get slimmer and players start thinking about leaving, poker sites start cutting the rake and giving more promotions/better deals.
 
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I did try and adress that.

There are a lot of recreational players in Europe who do play.

So yes if/when the US allows online poker there will be an initial flood but within a couple of years the ratio of fish to decent players returns to what it is now because some of those fish will leave poker all together; it was just a craze. Some will continue but not really achieve much. Some will go on to be great players and of course there will be a continual cycle of new players giving it a go. However the ratios should settle down to what they are now after the initial influx.

Like I said, Americans have to be just genetically worse at poker than the rest of the world for the ratios not to end up back where they were. If (I'm making up numbers here) in Europe the ratio of decent players to fish is 1:50 then I would expect that to be mirrored in the US once they get up to speed.

So the player pool increases and there is a, say 2 year sweet spot where the majority of US players suck. but after that time I dont see that the bigger player pool really changes anything because the ratio of fish to shark returns to its current level.

I don't think thats true. I expect the ratio of fish to good players to always be higher in America than other countries because the game is much more popular there and also on tv a lot. This means there are much more casual and recreational players than elsewhere.

I think if online poker is legalised there will always be a higher ratio of fish to sharks amongst american online players than there is right now unless the game dips in popularity.
 
Crummy

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The huge majority of players will never be able to beat 200nl+ online whatever the amount of training they get. It also requires a brain...

This just made my day!

You are totally right about poker training. There is no question that it has been maybe the largest contributor to how difficult the games are today. The thing is, whether people liked it or not, it was going to exist because there is such a big market for it and there would always be people willing to share their strategy for risk free money.

With respect to poker in the USA and you saying "if there is a will, there is a way", you are totally right. IF there is a will, there is a way. But certainly you can agree that it is not the best marketing strategy to tell your customers, "if there is a will, there is a way." Also, if you talk to most Americans they are under the impression online poker is illegal. So waht we have now is a product where it is difficult to obtain that most people think is illegal. Sounds a lot like marijuana. Can you imagine how many more people would smoke pot if you could just buy it on every street corner like alcohol, vs having to grow it yourself or buy it through a connection like it is right now? That is pretty much the best analogy I can come up with.

Very good analogy! And I agree, training was going to come, it is risk free money and in theory does help the game. Just because I'm coaching somebody and they are becoming a good player does not mean that they will be a good player in the end. They could be the rich guy that wants to learn in his mind, but his heart doesn't and he is the guy that will make us the most profit.

I feel that online poker will soon be legal, my only fear is that we will not like the regulations that the government puts into place! Could be the best worst thing to happen to us US players.
 
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Good points Crummy. They screw most things up so why would this be any different? :) They will probably do something ridiculous like limits people's deposits to like $50 a day and/or try and impose a 50% tax on every deposit. If something like that ever happened then I truly would leave the country.
 
Crummy

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Good points Crummy. They screw most things up so why would this be any different? :) They will probably do something ridiculous like limits people's deposits to like $50 a day and/or try and impose a 50% tax on every deposit. If something like that ever happened then I truly would leave the country.

Yeah, I can only imagine that it will be something insane like that. Like the government will have a database with your SSN# that tracks your online play and puts you into a higher tax bracket or something really really dumb! They will find a way to be more greedy than they are!
And I agree, I will move out of the country as well. Not that I play full-time now, but I do plan on it one day in the future. Plus if anything else my office has locations in the UK and Spain so I could always use that as my main source until that day comes!
 
IcyBlueAce

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Don't forget predation.

It must be horrible for a ring game fish in this day and age. (and this is coming from someone who is definitely a fish at many limits) As soon as you sit down, you've got a waitlist of sharks waiting to tear you apart. This means the fish lose faster than they normally would, and many who would have stuck around end up quitting altogether.

This is why I think Rush Poker might help things. Random seating is good for the fish, as they are less likely to be on a table full of sharks (depending on ratios), and it also "spreads the fish around" for all the players to get a piece. I hope they never increase the amount of Rush tables you can play, and I'd actually like it if they reduced it to 1 or 2 at a given stake.

You can play up to 8 tables on all limits/game types.

..unless rush poker is different, I've played 4 at a time before.
 
BelgoSuisse

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So waht we have now is a product where it is difficult to obtain that most people think is illegal. Sounds a lot like marijuana. Can you imagine how many more people would smoke pot if you could just buy it on every street corner like alcohol, vs having to grow it yourself or buy it through a connection like it is right now? That is pretty much the best analogy I can come up with.

The marijuana analogy may not be as good as you think. In some European countries like the netherlands or Belgium, marijuana is legal. In other like france - a direct neighbor of Belgium and pretty close culturally - it's absolutely illegal. But France nevertheless has much higher consumption of marijuana per inhabitant than it's northern neighbors.

France is also an interesting test market for poker since online poker was just recently legalized here. It means that on June 10th (*) we'll suddenly get cut off from the rest of the world unless we play on illegal rooms like FT or UB, but at the same time legal rooms will get the right to advertise as much as they want for a local online poker market. Whether the influx of local fishes will compensate the increase in rake due to taxes and the lack of access to foreign fishes will be an interesting experiment.

(*) sports gambling is getting legal at the same time as online poker, and it was quite important that licenses get issued before the start of the football world cup on June 11th.
 
IcyBlueAce

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The marijuana analogy may not be as good as you think. In some European countries like the Netherlands or Belgium, marijuana is legal. In other like France - a direct neighbor of Belgium and pretty close culturally - it's absolutely illegal. But France nevertheless has much higher consumption of marijuana per inhabitant than it's northern neighbors.

France is also an interesting test market for poker since online poker was just recently legalized here. It means that on June 10th (*) we'll suddenly get cut off from the rest of the world unless we play on illegal rooms like FT or Ultimatebet, but at the same time legal rooms will get the right to advertise as much as they want for a local online poker market. Whether the influx of local fishes will compensate the increase in rake due to taxes and the lack of access to foreign fishes will be an interesting experiment.

(*) sports gambling is getting legal at the same time as online poker, and it was quite important that licenses get issued before the start of the football world cup on June 11th.

What are you going to do? Stop playing on FTP/PS?

I'd move away if I were you lol.
 
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The marijuana analogy may not be as good as you think. In some European countries like the Netherlands or Belgium, marijuana is legal.

Actually I live in Belgium and marijuana is far from legal. It's a complicated and ambiguous law, but basically you're allowed to posess a certain amount (not that much) but you're not allowed to buy or sell.
In practice it means that they better not catch you with a pound of ganja when you're sitting on a train coming back from the Netherlands.

And as far as gambling goes, here it's pretty marginalized even after the Moneymaker boom.
 
Stu_Ungar

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Its not even legal in the Netherlands!!

They have the strangest drugs policy in the world.

Marijuana is illegal in the Netherlands.

However coffee shops are licensed and tolerated but only allowed to stock and sell small amounts .

It is illegal to supply a coffee shop with Marijuana.

Figure that one out!
 
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50% is not that far off!

Good points Crummy. They screw most things up so why would this be any different? :) They will probably do something ridiculous like limits people's deposits to like $50 a day and/or try and impose a 50% tax on every deposit. If something like that ever happened then I truly would leave the country.

Consider this. New York State gets 50% of all lottery ticket sales to use presumably for funding of public education. That's a hell of a rake. After expenses, the balance goes to the purchasers of the tickets.

The Feds and State governments love the sin tax. It is likely that they will treat gambling revenue similar to the way they deal with tobacco and alcohol. The federal, state and local governments will have fun hacking up the money.

And of course, if you are unfortunate enough to be in the small group of US residents that actually pay Federal Income Tax, you will add any winnings from regulated online poker to the top line of your gross income and pay another hefty rake to Uncle Sam.

Actually, the cliche, "BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR" is probably appropriate in this situation.
 
BelgoSuisse

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What are you going to do? Stop playing on FTP/PS?

FTP doesn't give a **** about French laws, so I'll keep playing there. PS will apparently apply for a French license so my account there should be automatically closed. I will most likely try out the French only rooms to see if the sub-standard software and above-standard rake is really an issue considering the influx of fresh fishes, then I'll see whether playing legally or not is best for me.

If playing legally is not a profitable option and playing illegally is not a sustainable option either, I'll consider moving abroad. Most of my income comes from my regular job, but I could get a similar one elsewhere in the world, and i would really hate giving up the side income from poker.
 
bazerk

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As usual, your insight is greatly appreciated Dusty! In addition to some sort of decision by the US Feds regarding online poker, our economy is in need of improvement so that recreational players have the disposal income available to pursue leisure activites. In Vegas the unemployment rate is ~13%; here whales do exist...@ the baccarat tables...while the local fish are using their scarce resources for food & shelter.

As an aside, marajuana is illegal here (other than medical marajuana for the NV residents who have applied for & been issued a state ID) but those who possess marajuana are required to purchase & affix state-issued tax stamps?!
 
Debi

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Since I de-railed the thread I deleted my post and the responses. :p
 
forsakenone

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sorry to all those from USA but this is NOT the "land of the free and the home of the brave" anymore!
 
djkismet

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very good read! im a micro stakes player just learning the real methods of the game my stats r pretty weak but u can tell im startin to get a lil better understanding of the game. im fortunate that i live in philly where table games have been recently legalized and i have a casino opening 5 blocks from me in 4 mos. so ive really been tryin to sharpen my game and sponge as much knowledge as i can in hopes of utilizing the game to help w/ bills or spending money after me 9-5
 
the lab man

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Good points Crummy. They screw most things up so why would this be any different? :) They will probably do something ridiculous like limits people's deposits to like $50 a day and/or try and impose a 50% tax on every deposit. If something like that ever happened then I truly would leave the country.

Move to canada we will take you:D
 
salim271

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Its not even legal in the Netherlands!!

They have the strangest drugs policy in the world.

Marijuana is illegal in the Netherlands.

However coffee shops are licensed and tolerated but only allowed to stock and sell small amounts .

It is illegal to supply a coffee shop with Marijuana.

Figure that one out!

Um... uh... 2+2... = fish? Makes no sense to me its a paradox :O
 
KyleJRM

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Move to Canada we will take you:D

It's a lot harder than people think (and got much harder in the last year or two). Mrs.KyleJRM and I were planning to start the process before she got pregnant in 2008.
 
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