Is NL hold em, the biggest luck involved poker game ?

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Rumme1

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You mention you had a streak that lasted a few years? Well, in the normal distribution (statistics) of things, if you play 9 handed tables, and your streak was 2 years long, you can expect to have 16 YEARS of below average luck.

Where on earth, do you people pull this bogus stats from ?

Seriously, how did you come up with the above, unproveable forumla that dictates a person that has above average luck for a few years at a 9 handed table, is now due to have 16 years of below average luck ...and why am I the only one noticing these absurd and unproveable theorys and calling them out as complete bullshiit ? Did you happen to pull that statistic out of some poker book written by a pro ? If so, I can tell you that pro, was telling you a lie.

This is such a terrible example. For one, we don't know the blinds of the game and I'm assuming it's a cash game.

Are the effective stacks 200 BBs, 100 BBs, 50 BBs, 25 BBs? Less? More?

Also, you assume that these players are only playing shove/fold poker, which is just silly and again, a bad example. I'd like to see if an actual cash game player is really get into a flip situation PF with QQ and 100+ BBs. Unless it's opponent dependent, they probably wont be....unless i'm 100% mistaken.

No its not a terrible example , its a real world example which I witness for years in local home games. The min buy in is $100..the blinds are $1-$2...its pot limit..and its dealer choice . Anything else you need to know ? Anyone that claims a poker player is a awful player, because they only buy in for the min buy, is clueless. That would be like claiming that a poker player that always buys in for the most money at any poker table, is always the best poker player...which is stupid, and innaccurate.

Some of you are truly naive.

We can read thru this thread, and easily spot the players that make unprovable , false claims about poker, and luck. They create phony numbers out of thin air , which are completely unproven, and then they act like those numbers are proven and timeless laws within poker and luck factors.

Anyone that trys to convince you that every person on earth, has the same amount of good luck and bad luck within the course of their existence on earth, is lying to you. Its that simple. Some people are struck by lightning several times in their life, while the majority are never struck by lightning. If good and bad luck was the exact same for all people on earth, then everyone would be struck by the lightning the same amount of times , within a given lifespan.

On the subject of poker, its just as absurd to claim that every player that plays 10,000 hours of poker, will experience the exact same amount of good luck, bad luck, bad beats, cold cards, as everyone else experiences within the same 10,000 hours of play . That is a statistical impossibility. Theres a good reason why its called

RANDOMNESS

For any idiot that claims the worst players always buy in for minimum and the best players always buy in for max, I can give you another real world stat that proves your theory is incorrect.

STU UNGAR...one of the worlds best gin players and tourney hold em players...

he used to play in the largest side games in vegas...he would buy in for more then most other players at the poker table ..and guess what, he would go broke most of the time . If you dont believe this , then you need to do more research about the subject. You can start with a Doyle Brunson interview on youtube. where he discusses stu ungar, and just how badly he played in side big stake poker games.

I really cant believe that some of you people immediatley think that a player that buys in for a lessor amount then other players, is always a indication of the worst player at the table. Where do you come up with these false theories ?

Its typical to see a below average player, with a large bankroll , buy in for more then a above average player, with a limited bankroll....its part of a skill called MONEY MANAGEMENT.

I COMPLETELY agree that luck does not balance out for everyone through enough hands - this is a fallacy.

Luck is a variable, meaning it varies from person to person. It is possible for someone, in theory, to flip a coin once every day of his life and have it be heads...furthermore, the more people that are born the more likely this person is to exist. Its not luck that will even everything out, its the number of players that will fill out all the scenarios, Frank Tipler - a scientist - once stated that given enough time, everything that can happen will happen - meaning that eventually a person will exist, or already did exist - that will lose every time they have AA no matter how many times they get it, or may never get AA at all, most of us ride somewhere in the middle, slightly to one side or the other

What does this mean?
1. You are never "DUE" to win anything - EVER
2. You may never be at the same luck level as anyone else
3. You may have stats that are so grossly one sided it seems fake, or seems that you are a bad player

Unfortunately there is nothing you can do about it either, except hope that you are not the 'one' who is predetermined to lose every time.

Exactly right !

at any given time or place..poker can be 100% LUCK....
 
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detroitjunkie

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Wow shocked no one quoted me in this post, since my statements are the only ones that made any sense.

First off - luck can not be changed, it can not be determined, it can not be forcasted, it is pre-written, and no one knows where it will appear next. It has no pattern that anyone can see, it affects everyone differently, and NO it will NOT level out for all people over time - EVER, our lives are finite, which means some will have more good luck than others...no matter how many hands you play

I am a fairly decent player, and I can prove it, and at times I do not buy in for the maximum, depends on the game I am playing. When playing live I like to play $1-$3, and will typically buy in for $150. There is a real good reason I do this, and it is very effective, it in no way (NO WAY) means I am a bad player or do not know what I am doing. I understand the problems with buying in short, but there are advantages to it to in certain games, and if you do not see that then maybe you are the bad players.
 
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Wow shocked no one quoted me in this post, since my statements are the only ones that made any sense.

First off - luck can not be changed, it can not be determined, it can not be forcasted, it is pre-written, and no one knows where it will appear next. It has no pattern that anyone can see, it affects everyone differently, and NO it will NOT level out for all people over time - EVER, our lives are finite, which means some will have more good luck than others...no matter how many hands you play

I am a fairly decent player, and I can prove it, and at times I do not buy in for the maximum, depends on the game I am playing. When playing live I like to play $1-$3, and will typically buy in for $150. There is a real good reason I do this, and it is very effective, it in no way (NO WAY) means I am a bad player or do not know what I am doing. I understand the problems with buying in short, but there are advantages to it to in certain games, and if you do not see that then maybe you are the bad players.

I did quote you..and agreed with you. Why ? Because my 30 + years of poker experience, tells me your claims are correct. Its a complete poker LIE...to claim that everyone has the exact same amount of good luck and bad luck over the long term. Just like its stupid for anyone to claim that when a poker player buys in a game for a minimum, they are a fish/ weak player or when a poker player buys in for the most, they are the best player that the table. These are just naive and stupid opinions , that are embraced by many inexperienced poker players who have read some poker books and have not logged in the decades of poker play, to seperate facts from fictions.
 
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This thread represents alot of incorrect opinions embraced by poker players. For any poker player to sit down at a random poker table, and claim that the players who bought in the game for the least amount, will always be the worst players, is beyond stupid.

Heres how I decide who the weakest players are :

1. the ones that play almost every hand

2. the ones who consistently misread their own hands

3. the ones who consistently make bad calls on the river, with the losing hands

4. the ones who lack money management skills , and can never leave a poker table on their own freewill, when they are losing { in other words, they are unable to limit their losses, when they are having a bad night}

5. the ones whodo not have a basic understanding of calculating odds on flop/turn/river.

Two of the best local players in my area ALWAYS, buy in for the minimum . Meanwhile, many of the worst players in my area, love to buy in for much more then the minimum...one reason is because if they buy in for the minimum, they know it wont last them a long time in the game, because they play to many hands and play to recklessly. They arent buying in for the max, because they are the best players...NOT AT ALL !
 
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It's one thing to debate, it's another to denigrate others. We can disagree and still discuss the topic respectfully.

To Rumme1: we're just talking about odds here. Of course there is no way everyone will have the same amount of luck as everyone else. It's just the probability of what the outcome might be. It's odds, not certainty. Kind of like, it is certain the sun will rise everyday, it's not certain whether or not it will rain sometimes.

"Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur." Likelihood =/= certainty It's just a way to measure what the most likely outcome will probably be.
 
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the strength of the luck factor :

AT ANY GIVEN TIME , AND FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME , POKER CAN BE BASED ON A MAJORITY OF GOOD LUCK OR BAD LUCK, DESPITE HOW WELL A PLAYER PLAYED THE HANDS

A PLAYER CAN PLAY EVERY HAND EXACTLY CORRECT PREFLOP ..100% OF THE TIME...AND STILL END UP LOSING MONEY IF THEY ARE CONSISTENTLY UNLUCKY. THIS CAN ALSO BE TRUE ON THE FLOP/ TURN .

A AVERAGE PLAYER WITH CONSISTENT ABOVE AVERAGE LUCK CAN consistently beat a ABOVE AVERAGE PLAYER WITH CONSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE LUCK . ..EVEN OVER MONTHS/YEARS OF PLAY.

These are things you wont usually learn in poker books. You learn it from decades of playing in multiple games with multiple players who have multiple styles.

Quite often, a lucky player will win the biggest pots, by doing the wrong thing at the right time and relying completely on good luck to make them winner.

It's one thing to debate, it's another to denigrate others. We can disagree and still discuss the topic respectfully.

To Rumme1: we're just talking about odds here. Of course there is no way everyone will have the same amount of luck as everyone else. It's just the probability of what the outcome might be. It's odds, not certainty. Kind of like, it is certain the sun will rise everyday, it's not certain whether or not it will rain sometimes.

"Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur." Likelihood =/= certainty It's just a way to measure what the most likely outcome will probably be.

When certain people misquote my claims, to try and make me look bad, then I reply as I feel neccessary. One person on this thread insinuated that I made a bunch of claims...which I did not..therefore I responded to this liar, they way I thought was best.

It's one thing to debate, it's another to denigrate others. We can disagree and still discuss the topic respectfully.

To Rumme1: we're just talking about odds here. Of course there is no way everyone will have the same amount of luck as everyone else. It's just the probability of what the outcome might be. It's odds, not certainty. Kind of like, it is certain the sun will rise everyday, it's not certain whether or not it will rain sometimes.

"Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur." Likelihood =/= certainty It's just a way to measure what the most likely outcome will probably be.

Probability is just one factor in poker...you have things like randomness , along with the fact that certain players have much more consistent good luck patterns, then other players. It will never equal out for every player in the game...Ive seen some players that are champions at hitting miracle river cards on a consistent basis. I cant explain why they are this lucky and I know if I played like them I would lose a ton of money chasing such cards.

I find it fascinating how the element of luck, is so powerful in poker and I find it annoying how so many will claim the power of luck, is basically meaningless in poker , and that skill will always dictate the outcome.
 
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dj11

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Dude, relax, and try to realize that you are over-fixating on luck!

You are in the beginning stages of that 16 years of below average luck!

Time for you to change something. Might I suggest you try a new crying towel?
 
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Dude, relax, and try to realize that you are over-fixating on luck!

You are in the beginning stages of that 16 years of below average luck!

Time for you to change something. Might I suggest you try a new crying towel?

I got tired of buying crying towels I just carry around a battery powered blow dryer now.
 
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No its not a terrible example , its a real world example which I witness for years in local home games. The min buy in is $100..the blinds are $1-$2...its pot limit..and its dealer choice . Anything else you need to know ? Anyone that claims a poker player is a awful player, because they only buy in for the min buy, is clueless. That would be like claiming that a poker player that always buys in for the most money at any poker table, is always the best poker player...which is stupid, and innaccurate.
...In bold: I never said that anyone that buys in for the minimum is an awful player, I just said that we don't have the needed information. Or do you not understand that playing QQ for 10BBs differs from playing for 100BBs? Not to mention that we don't know the players histories together.

The fact it got all in preflop for 50 BBs effectively probably isn't that uncommon in PLHE. However, you make it sound like your local home game is just constant coinflips.

Also, in your previous post I quoted, your claim that there is more luck in coin flips for a bigger stack because they have to lose more than a shorter stack to bust out is just stupid. Yes, of course a shorter stack has more at risk and yes, there it is luck based when in 50/50 situations, but it's not because of one stack being bigger than the other, it's just how the cards fall. If the shorter stack doesn't want to put themselves in these situations there they commit themselves for 50 BBs w/ QQ, they should buy-in for more.

Both got their money in with equally strong hands in an attempt to maximize their value, and unless it's a split pot, a players is going to win and a player is going to lose. That's how it goes. Yes, maybe the skill level in all-ins isn't as high as playing the hand out, but it's still there.


Anyone that trys to convince you that every person on earth, has the same amount of good luck and bad luck within the course of their existence on earth, is lying to you. Its that simple. Some people are struck by lightning several times in their life, while the majority are never struck by lightning. If good and bad luck was the exact same for all people on earth, then everyone would be struck by the lightning the same amount of times , within a given lifespan.
...Are we talking about luck in poker or luck in general?

I'm not denying that there isn't luck in poker, but I disagree that poker is purely luck based. I think skill = long term winner. Luck = short term winner. However, no long term winner has ever won based on 100% skill alone. I'm not going to lie and say I've never gotten lucky/unlucky while playing. It's just not something I rely on. Also, I don't view luck on just losing situations. I think it's lucky when I get my AK vs AQ AIPF situations or my AA vs KK. It's unlucky when i get my set vs higher set. Stuff happens all the time in poker, but as long as my decisions are +EV, in the long run, I profit. It doesn't matter about the short term bad luck results I might run into every now and then.

On the subject of poker, its just as absurd to claim that every player that plays 10,000 hours of poker, will experience the exact same amount of good luck, bad luck, bad beats, cold cards, as everyone else experiences within the same 10,000 hours of play . That is a statistical impossibility. Theres a good reason why its called
...I think if every player played at the exact same level, the exact same way, were dealt the exact same hands, in the exact same situations, then yes, their luck would be close to equal.

That's impossible, though.

I think there is such thing as players making their own luck. For example, aggressive players might come off as being more luckier than passive players, but that's only they put themselves in a lot more situations that can result in big out comes. For example, an aggressive player might play their flush draw after the flop betting out, raising, or maybe even semi-bluff shoving against their opponent. They win if they get their opponent to fold and they win if they get called and hit their hand. A passive player on the other hand would probably check/call a bet, then check/fold to more aggression on the turn if their card doesn't hit. And when it does hit, they probably don't paid off.

Now, the passive player is wondering how does the aggressive player get so lucky to hit their flushes all of the time? How do they get so lucky to win big stacks when they do hit? Is it luck? I don't think the passive player is any less lucky than the aggressive player. And the odds of hitting your flush when you have 2 in your hand, 2 on the flop is the same whether you're an aggressive player or a passive one. The only difference is the aggressive one is giving themselves 2 ways to win while the passive is only giving themselves only 1. Also, when they're all in, the aggressive player is guaranteed to see the turn and river, whereas the passive player may not get to see the river if faced with a big turn bet.

So, again, are aggressive players more lucky than the passive players? Maybe...maybe not. I think giving themselves a much better chance to win a pot is more skill than just relying on luck.


RANDOMNESS

For any idiot that claims the worst players always buy in for minimum and the best players always buy in for max, I can give you another real world stat that proves your theory is incorrect.
...I don't think anyone claims this. There are plenty of profitable short stack players and a lot of unprofitable big stack players. Skill level isn't determined based how much you buy-in.

With that said, the best players know that buying-in for less than max buy-in is -EV because you aren't maximizing the value of your big hand by short stacking. You don't have to be the best player to understand that.


STU UNGAR...one of the worlds best gin players and tourney hold em players...

he used to play in the largest side games in vegas...he would buy in for more then most other players at the poker table ..and guess what, he would go broke most of the time . If you dont believe this , then you need to do more research about the subject. You can start with a Doyle Brunson interview on youtube. where he discusses stu ungar, and just how badly he played in side big stake poker games.
...Isn't this because he was coked out all the time? Yeah, such skill there playing high. I'm not surprised and I think this is a bad example.

And was Stu Unger really that good? I often question that. I know he played hyper-aggressive when most played a super nitty NLHE style, so that gave him an edge over other players. Also being coked out of his mind probably made him fearless and/or not care, which probably made it harder for other players to play against. I guess this is another discussion, though.


I really cant believe that some of you people immediatley think that a player that buys in for a lessor amount then other players, is always a indication of the worst player at the table. Where do you come up with these false theories?
...Again, I don't think it's an indication of a bad player for buying-in less. I just think that a) the player isn't as good as they think they are if they don't understand the value of buying-in for the max. And b) if we take 2 equally skilled players, but one buys-in for max, the other buys-in for minimum...the player that buys in for max will have the greater edge. Especially in terms of overall profits.

Its typical to see a below average player, with a large bankroll , buy in for more then a above average player, with a limited bankroll....its part of a skill called MONEY MANAGEMENT.
...This is terrible money management. If the above average player can't buy-in for the max at a certain stake with their BR size, then they're playing too high of stakes.

The same goes for the below average player. If they're playing at a stake they can't beat, even though they buy-in for the max, they'll get eaten up by the regs who also buy-in for the max.
above.
 
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Just wondering...is this a rant thread? Are you downswing? Run into bad variance? Getting stacked at your home games constantly?

You said you were profitable for 2 years and now you're not? Did your game improve? Maybe you're making mistakes you didn't realize you were making and others take advantage of it. The game is much more evolved now than before, so you can't expect to play the same years ago and have the same results.

What brought along this thread?
 
detroitjunkie

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Most of us agree that luck is not equal, it can not be determined, it can not be forcasted, so therefor it should never be a thought in your head while playing. You may want to 'gamble' from time to time in hopes that you get lucky, but most of us realize this is a terrible way to play. You should never consider your luck in anything - ever! The only exception is when you are reviewing your session and you can see a spot where you got unlucky and the loss was not due to bad play (and reverse is true, you got lucky despite playing bad). Otherwise you should never use it as a tool to play.

With this, luck isnt 'meaningless' by any standard. But again, should never be a tool in how you look at future games, just past ones.

One thing, however, that we can take from this. people talk about odds and the math of poker, well with knowing that odds do not always affect everyone the same, it can be said that reads of your opponents are a much more valuable tool than knowing the math, and I agree with this! Especially in tournaments. The people who can make better reads on players will always have way more success than those that just play by the math...and I would back a player with good reads and bad math over the reverse every time.
 
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As usual, claims about poker are made in very loose terms { like the above}

Tell us what is the meaning of " sufficiently large volume of poker playing " ?

Its a vague term, with no real meaning , kinda like someone being asked, " HOW LONG HAVE YOU PLAYED POKER" , and the guy replies...I played poker a long time. Such statements do not give any real exact data to anaylize.

I do know this for a FACT. Some pros make the false claim that everyone who plays poker/ gambles, over the longterm, has the exact same amount of bad luck and good luck, as all other players. This really annoys me because in my 33 years of playing every week, I know it is a flat out lie.

I will say it once again ,

A very luck player, that is just average, will beat a very unlucky player that is above average....and they can beat them on a very constant basis.

Ive been thru the streaks...Many years ago I had a good luck run that lasted a few years.....then it stopped..and then I went on a bad luck run that last many more years then the good luck run. The only thing that saved me from becoming a losing player, was MONEY MANAGEMENT. I was constantly losing to loose fish , who played way to many hands, called big bets to catch
miracle cards , would bet wrongly..and these fish would regularly chase me down or I was just getting cold cards for hours at each session and could not get wrapped up in big pots, to try and get the money from the fish at the table.

LUCK MEANS MUCH MORE TO POKER/GAMBLING, THEN MOST PROS WILL EVER ADMIT . Why ? because its human nature for people who win money in gambling/ poker, to want to imply that their winnings had nothing to do with luck, and more to do with their skills. Its a complimentary thing, and we all like to be complimented , instead of thinking we win in poker due to good luck swings.

Someone mentioned that its true that we all have the exact same amount of luck, over the INFINITE long term....I also disagree with that, because it is a theory which can never be proven, because none of us live a infinite amount of time. I find it silly to claim something is 100% true, when that idea is merely a theory, which has never been proven, and can never be proven.

I play in a big game in my area , once a week with a min buy in of $300..pot limit....Some of the pots we have are $2000 or more { full table of 11 players} This game has been going on for over 3 years now, and guess what, the biggest winner in this game, is easily 1 of the worst players at the table. This guy is AWFUL....he bets badly, he makes to many stupid calls chasing hands that are not paying pot odds, etc....he doesnt have a clue how to calculate odds on a flop, he doesnt have a good memory of what cards people folded ,etc....and yet this guy is the big winner due to only ONE factor. His continual good luck at this one specific game. He used to play in 2 other local games, but he did not have good luck at those games and win at them , so he quit playing them after a few years . For some reason, this one local game, is his game, when it comes to continual good luck. This is something Ive noticed with my own play . There were some games that I ran very bad at locally, but there was one game that only ran for 4 months, which I had incredible good luck at , and was the big winner . Out of the 5 local games , I have only had great luck, in one of those games, which unfortunately busted up...the other local games are a brutal grind for me, where I must often sit at the table and get cold cards for 3-4 hours and not even win 1 hand. The only thing that keeps me from being a big loser in these bad luck games, is my money management.

OK I can explain further, The reason i say sufficiently large volume in such "vague terms" as you put it is it does depend on the variables.

There are a lot of things that will impact the sample size required.

for example back in the day I used to play double or nothings on stars this was when the Americans were still playing. I had some very good figures for those not so much due to my talent but due to the sheer idiocy of the opponents. Over several thousand games I managed a 60% win rate.

further typically 50% of the price pool got paid there was enough room for a lot of play and my opponents were making huge mistakes. this was a very stable game which i very rarely had losing days at.

the sample size required for a game variant like this to get statistically significant data was much less then another game which i specialized in 6 max hyper turbo sats.

where the blinds were 10bb starting stacks with large antees and only a third of players got paid (ignoring the petty change for third) due to not much play per game and much wider ranges required the variance in these were huge.

add in the factor that these games had become very popular with grinders after seeing jorj95 results these were swarmed with regs. typically the average game i played had me pitted against 3-4 other regs and only 1-2 fish/recs.

because there was little movement room the edge was very small and the speed was very fast the sample size required for statistical significance here was huge.

in order to tell you what sort of data sample you need we would need to know the game variant eg fixed limit NL pot limit. the structure eg cash table sit and go etc effective stacks blind levels pay outs etc.

standard of play you compared to your opponents etc.

so now i cant tell you how much data you need to be sure of your specific game. with exact details i could get some idea but unless i played in the same games and saw the standard and got a feel for it, I could not give something definitive. I mean dons today have a lot more variance then they did back in the days due to the standard been much better. that been said there still good games for relatively low variance and stable profits.

But I wont do that for you unless you pay me because I am very busy at the moment and dont see why i should do the work for you for free.

I am not expecting you to pay me for such things rather you to do the work yourself. any professional or serious player should be able to work out there risk factors bank roll management and either enter the right games or put in enough volume to ensure that there results truly reflect there talent.

if you feel this is not the case then you are either playing the wrong games not putting in enough volume or just playing bad.

it is perfectly manageable to play formats online where you can play enough volume to eliminate luck almost entirely.

if you want to get into lottery numbers and say there is still a tiny chance, however slim that a good player keeps losing, well you know what technically your right.

no matter how much you win or lose over how long there can still be that 1 in 900 septillion chance your results are just bad luck or good luck etc. and some people argue the there are infinite universes which means every possibility has to be realized somewhere. so hey you know what you might just be that 1 in 900 septillion, but I know what I think is much more likely.
 
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.

What brought along this thread?

Well , this is a poker discussion forum ? I realize some players may be more interested in threads discussing a players favorite drink at the poker table or how many times they must go pee in a 10 hour poker session. Those sorts of subjects are meaningless to me, so I started a thread about luck , which I feel is often a misunderstood and under estimated factor in poker.

I am still a winning poker player, but not nearly as much as years ago, when I had a steady supply of good luck on my side . Its just interesting for me to look back and realize that at one time, I had good poker skills and good luck ,and now I am grinding it out based on skills alone because the good luck has been absent for quite a while, which basically means the big poker profits are no longer easy to come by , even though the poker players in my current location, are some of the worst I have ever witnessed in over 30 years of play. In other words, theres a ton of money to be won in the 3-4 local games per week , but consistent cold cards and bad beats keep much of that money to be won, out of my pocket .

I dont think most people can understand just how bad the quality of players are in my locations. For example, in the $300 min buy in pot limit game , we have several loose players that will raise preflop, without looking at their down cards. I consider this to be one of the stupidest plays in poker and its a play that if I did on a continual basis, it would warrant me being a big loser in the game ..yet some of these players do it all the time, and do not get punished for such improper, poor play.

Yes, it gets frustrating to see so many players, trying to give their money away in a poker game , and yet one is unable to benefit from it due to a long run of bad luck.

My bad luck isnt about me being a big loser in the game...its about me not being able to be a big winner , when these players are throwing their money away at the table. Theres nothing more frustrating then this scenario, especially when it has been going on for over a year or more.
 
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Rumme1

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Dude, relax, and try to realize that you are over-fixating on luck!

You are in the beginning stages of that 16 years of below average luck!

Time for you to change something. Might I suggest you try a new crying towel?

Discussing a subject, and crying, are 2 different things.

Even at the poker table, I dont cry when I lose. I go in with a set amount of money I will risk and play my best. If I lose that money, I get up and leave without incident. I then reflect back on if my loss was mostly based on poor luck, or poor play. I am well aware when I play poor poker or when I am off my own "A" game that works best for me { tight/disciplined/ observant/ money management/ usually folding 90% or more hands Ive been dealt} .

Im not a begginer by any means. Been playing for over 30 years and am way ahead of the game, but only recently realized just how much the luck factor means in poker. When a player runs good, most of the time, they have no real understanding that bad luck can come along, and make the game miserable for very long time periods. When you sit at a poker table with 10 people, and you know that 7 of them are fish , and you have them way out skilled, it sucks that bad luck continually gets in the way of you taking their cash. Its easy to deal with it for a few sessions over the course of a few weeks, but when it goes on for 12 months or more at a time, thats when a person really understands how the luck factor can be so significant in a game where many people like to claim it is a SKILL game.
 
olfabiolo

olfabiolo

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For the winning player is that if you play long enough, the
luck will cease to be a factor. Mathematicians know this intuitively, but for those
of us less fortunate mathematically, imagine a coin. Any currency move
up, has a 50% chance to get out and face a 50% chance to get out crown. If you play
a coin up, you expect her to fall face 5 times and 5 times crown. At
odds for a given number of heads are the following (the values are
approximate due to rounding).
 
MaksAnonim

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in one of the freerolls wasn't in the mood to play, put all-in and noticed that I have the prize, he started to play careful took 3 rd place. got 11$ luck played a role. but I still think you need to rely on strategy!
 
dj11

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{ tight/disciplined/ observant/ money management/ usually folding 90% or more hands Ive been dealt} .

When a player runs good, most of the time, they have no real understanding that bad luck can come along, and make the game miserable for very long time periods.

Every single person who reads these threads says HORSESHIT! We are way beyond understanding that it will happen, we take it as a given.

Truly dude, what makes you believe you are being singled out?
 
S3mper

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The sun doesn't actually rise JQ. Gawd!

I'm subbing in and will catch up later. :)
 
detroitjunkie

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And it WILL rain sometimes, that is a guarantee, we just dont know when, but if here in Michigan it will in 5 minutes, then in 15 minutes, then in 4 hours, etc...
 
shinedown.45

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It doesnt matter whether I raise 3 big blinds, slow play or shove all in...KK is a hand that apparently I don't know how to play.
{ per my poker tracking software}Still waiting for stats................ .


Ive been tracking this loss percentage for years, playing online. And yet no software stats

I can almost guarantee that when I am nearing the end of a tourney, my bust hands will be KK -AK and I will have gotten my money in good preflop, but I end up losing.

Now, some people may say, to just fold KK or AK...but IMHO, that is stupid advice, because they are 2 very solid hands, and if you must constantly fold those 2 strong hands preflop , then there is not much use in playing NL hold em.

I mean if I have KK and a decent stack near the end of a tourney, and I raise 4x big blind, and I get one caller , and a ACE flops, and my opponent goes all in { which would bust me from tourney} ..I FOLD my KK....I dont play reckless poker.
True, why fold this late in a tourney when the skill level of the players left are diminished:rolleyes:.
You sound like you wouldn't even consider a fold?

When I flop a monster hand { rare occasion} I often get alot of value out of it, because I love to check strong hands to aggressive players. If I got
pokcet 9s..and flop comes 3- 6-9 rainbow...I would check that flop(allowing my opponent a chance to catch his str8) if I was in first position....and just smooth call when my opponent bets out.
One other thing I would like to add is your opponents cards don't decide to get into a hand, your opponents decide to play them.
 
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austin360

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skill

luck is involved yea, but there are many ways you can play it that dont involve going all in preflop that distinguishes the good players from the bad ones. Cant get into details as it would take 100 pages to analyze everything but its definitely not like playing roulette.

when yyour at a table that play the game and not the luck it take some skill:jd4:
 
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"Luck" plays a role in any "gamble". The way the luck is utilized or capitalized, such as "feeling it and calling / raising", versus "hoping to get lucky and flop/turn/river, etc.", in my opinion, has a lot to do with the outcome; not necessarily effecting the "statistically random chance" that is cards, but really it comes down to where you choose to use (not rely or depend on,) luck.
 
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Rumme1

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Proof that poker involves ALOT of luck

I continually hear poker players say that freerolls are so difficult to win, because there are so many bad players in them , that will go all in preflop on rags, and beat much better starting hands or much better players .

I agree this is the problem with freerolls, but if skill was the driving factor in poker, then this would ensure that the better players in the freerolls, were consistently the winners of those freerolls.

This isnt the case though, and is yet more proof that poor players with good luck can often beat better players with bad luck.

luck = the great equalizer in poker..in the short term , mid term and long term .
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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I continually hear poker players say that freerolls are so difficult to win, because there are so many bad players in them , that will go all in preflop on rags, and beat much better starting hands or much better players .

I agree this is the problem with freerolls, but if skill was the driving factor in poker, then this would ensure that the better players in the freerolls, were consistently the winners of those freerolls.

This isnt the case though, and is yet more proof that poor players with good luck can often beat better players with bad luck.

luck = the great equalizer in poker..in the short term , mid term and long term .
Nobody is saying that luck is not a part of poker but saying that one specific person has bad luck or good luck all the time is crap, IMO, Luck is Karma.
 
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