NEWS: Same Player Hits U.B Bad Beat Jackpot Twice

[MDTed]

I really don't see much news in the 2+2 thread. Just the same people hashing out the same information. Posting logs that may or may not even be true, I mean how hard is it to create a log file? 2+2 is just a shill for Stars anyways, it's not like they would ever have good information on other sites.

The main concept here, which people seem to be missing, is that UB is not Stars. There aren't 100,000+ people playing there daily. I would bet that the total pool of players playing in the bad beat jackpot games is probably less than 1,000 overall, 2,000 at the most. So the odds of someone winning it twice doesn't go up to lottery standards. It's just not that hard to do when it's such a small pool of participants.

 

[robwhufc]

It's just not that hard to do when it's such a small pool of participants.

Be dealt Quad 8's or better, use both hold cards, and lose?

It's never happened to me, it's not happened to anyone on cardschat as far as I can recall, yet person does it twice within 6 weeks (without anyone else on site doing it in between) and that's not hard to do?

Of course it can be done - initial oddities (not checked by me) is that 2 hands occured exactly 6 weeks apart (by exactly I mean same day, same time down to seconds - again don't know whether this is true), the guy's first BB jackpot has ben expunged from Ultimate Bet's records, another player apparently won the BB jackpot 4 hours before 1st occassion but was denied it on a technicality (again, speculation at this stage), and Ultimatebet made no mention of the player winning it before when they announced 2nd win.

I saw a converted HH of the first occurance that seemed to suggest the BB jackpot was $170K but the guy won less than that (the rest going to the rest of the table).

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The main concept here, which people seem to be missing, is that Ultimatebet is not Stars. There aren't 100,000+ people playing there daily. I would bet that the total pool of players playing in the bad beat jackpot games is probably less than 1,000 overall, 2,000 at the most. So the odds of someone winning it twice doesn't go up to lottery standards. It's just not that hard to do when it's such a small pool of participants.

umm, the number of players on the site (all other things being equal) has no effect on the odds of one person hitting a BBJ twice in a given period. the only variable is the number of hands a person plays.

 

[Stick66]

Kind of odd that U.B never mentioned his 1st win in the announcement for his 2nd win and the link to his 1st win info is gone from their website.

 

[MDTed]

In a way the BBJ is like the lottery. People play it, someone wins it. It's not like the lottery however in the number of people who do play it, rather than millions of tickets sold per drawing, there's a couple thousand "entries" into the BBJ lottery. I don't find it any more unbelievable than my winning the BBJ in a B&M casino twice in 3 days in the span of a couple hundred hands.

The part of this I find implausible in the extreme is that people seem to think that someone can control the outcome of a single hand within the entire system. There's 1000's of hands played per minute and the conspiracy theorists wish you to believe that, if they wished, someone at UB could predetermine which cards are going to be dealt out throughout the entire hand. They could predict that nobody would sit out before the hand was dealt, that nobody would bust out and leave before the next hand was dealt, they must be omniscient as well as omnipotent.

 

[zachvac]

b) Yeah, well someone wins the lottery twice in a month I'll be suspicious of that too. Ok with you, Einstein?

Spluch: Lucky Guy who wins twice in a row in lottery ticket

 

[robwhufc]

my winning the BBJ in a B&M casino twice in 3 days in the span of a couple hundred hands.

Can you give us more details?

The part of this I find implausible in the extreme is that people seem to think that someone can control the outcome of a single hand within the entire system. There's 1000's of hands played per minute and the conspiracy theorists wish you to believe that, if they wished, someone at Ultimatebet could predetermine which cards are going to be dealt out throughout the entire hand. They could predict that nobody would sit out before the hand was dealt, that nobody would bust out and leave before the next hand was dealt, they must be omniscient as well as omnipotent.

The cards come from somewhere don't they? Every poker site has been programmed so the end users see their own cards, plus the board cards, and see opponents cards in a showdown. You take it on trust that these cards (which aren't really cards, they are just images on your PC screen) are produced randomly. It really cant be that much of a leap of faith to suggest that the images you see could be manually produced and transmitted.

I'm a long way from buying into this one yet, the 2+2 geeks are jumping onto every odd occurence in online poker at the moment and making a huge number of assumptions (and dismissing evidence that doesn't back up their claims), but it's always the same sites coming up over and over again. Not that it will have any affect on the poker economy in the long term.

 

[robwhufc]

Spluch: Lucky Guy who wins twice in a row in lottery ticket

You accidentally posted a link for someone winning twice on scratchcards.

 

[zachvac]

You accidentally posted a link for someone winning twice on scratchcards.

Scratchcards != the lottery? fwiw I did just google won lottery twice, because I thought I remembered someone winning the powerball (I think that's what it's called) twice in a semi-short time period. Couldn't find it though. But a scratchcard is the lottery, is it not?

 

[bustermoves]

if memory serves correctly,here in texas,several people have won the lottery twice now.of course they were several years apart also.but then we have only had a lottery for slightly less than 20 years.

 

[vanquish]

that guy better stop playing at the BBJ tables, lest he win a 3rd time...

 

[N.D.]

What if the winner's Annie Duke's hairstylist or Phil Hellmuth's pharmacist? It could happen. That would look really fishy to me...

But it still wouldn't in and of itself prove cheating. Still it would make the scandal more fun.

 

[nevadanick]

I think Ultimatebet claims to use some sort of actual thermal device to truly randomize the way the deck is shuffeled and the cards are dealt, as opposed to psuedo RNG's on some sites. If this is true I think it would be genuinely impossible to predict the cards to come, but I'm not positive....

There are no online sites I know of that use pseudo-RNG's. They all use true RNG's far as I know. It's not a thermal 'device', it's the method (entropy) used to generate the seed for the algorythm and subsequent 'shuffle'.

One reason I prefer Stars is that they set the entire 52 card deck before the first card is dealt. You are receiving the deal exactly as you would at a live table (minus the burn cards - no need for them). Tilt, on the other hand, deals the cards on an 'as needed' basis from the deck.

Don't want to hijack this thread, so if you want to discuss it further, PM me.

 

[pkrplr4116]

What I learned at the WSOP Academy from Annie Duke

ROFLMAO! What I learned at the wsop Academy is that, and trust me on this, An nie duke does NOT employ the services of a hair stylist nor a fashion advisor and boys, let he tell you from personal experience, she needs to. That girl was one of the major instructors at the Academy and she looked like a 19 year old hippes. NO JOKE. Horrible. sure, I go out in ratty t-shirt and shorts...to walk my dog or maybe to to the McDonald's drive thru. but I would NEVER address a few hundred people looking like a kid who just rolled out of bed.

And the other thing I learned from Annie is that when in Vegas, go to sleep early, really early and arrive at the poker room between 2-4am and play. You're very well rested and 99% of the poeple there are exhausted because they've been playing all day and night, either on a roll or trying to get their money back. this is great advice! Maybe she'll follow my advice and get a hair stylist and fashion consultant.

What if the winner's Annie Duke's hairstylist or Phil Hellmuth's pharmacist? It could happen. That would look really fishy to me...

But it still wouldn't in and of itself prove cheating. Still it would make the scandal more fun.

 

[odinscott]

he is the luckiest unlucky player ever imo

LOL True true The way i have been running i need to get to a site that has one of these BBJ...

this would only make sense if the chance of a frequent poker player winning a bad beat jackpot were even close to as small as the chances of someone who plays every week winning the lottery. that's the whole point

winning a bad beat jackpot twice is much more comparable to winning the lottery once. and people win the lottery. did i break that down in terms you understand?

I am not so sure about that, but I guess it depends on which lottery we are talking about. First you have to calculate the odds of being dealt something higher than quad 8s (the cutoff I think), then the odds of an opponent getting dealt that, then on top of it, the odds of both happening at the same time. Then on top of that, figure the odds of that happening to the same player in 6 weeks time. Granted we dont know how many hands he played, he may have a bot playing 500 hands at the same time 24 hours a day. BUT the odds are very very slim for this to happen once, let alone twice to the same guy (and that quickly back to back). I didnt see it, but how many people won the jackpot inbetween the times that he got it (if any)?

You accidentally posted a link for someone winning twice on scratchcards.

That does make a difference, because the odds of winning a hundred thousand on scratch offs are alot higher than winning a hundred million in the lotto.

 

[arkadiy]

There was a lady on the TV, she played the lottery only once a week. She won the Jackpot for some odd millions. She continued to play the lottery once a week buying the same ticket at the same little store. She won 3x $100,000 prizes after and then later hit the jackpot once again.

Real life is rigged

 

[odinscott]

There was a lady on the TV, she played the lottery only once a week. She won the Jackpot for some odd millions. She continued to play the lottery once a week buying the same ticket at the same little store. She won 3x $100,000 prizes after and then later hit the jackpot once again.

Real life is rigged

lol! Yes life is rigged.

One thing that I didnt know if it was mentioned was that the first jackpot he won with a royal over 4 aces and the second one was royal over royal? That is what i read on 2+2 anyways. Now what are the odds of that. lol


Edit: this was originally posted on Daniels FCP and reprinted on 2+2 but here I reprint it again:

"HighwayStar
Tuesday, March 25th, 2008, 4:19 AM

Assuming both sets of hole cards get involved all the way, odds of quads over quads 7's is 1/1875538 (apparently)
Straight flushes etc are more unlikely and probably more unlikely you play the cards to start with, all the way to the river
ie
pocket 8's is more likely to be played than 37 suited

So overall about 1 in 2 mill / hand considering cards played etc.

Pretty amazing it hit twice in 1 (day

(1/2000000)^2 = (1/4000000000000)

That's for losing with quad 7's or better


edit - considering BOTH hole cards have to qualify, odds of straight flush over straight flush are so small as to be irrelevant even to the slim chance of quads on quads.
might have a go at working this out later after some sleep"

Not sure that gives any useful info except that the odds of it happening are close to 1 out of a figgin crap load!

 

[vanquish]

lol how can you have royal over royal?

 

[S93]

Scratchcards != the lottery? fwiw I did just google won lottery twice, because I thought I remembered someone winning the powerball (I think that's what it's called) twice in a semi-short time period. Couldn't find it though. But a scratchcard is the lottery, is it not?

On the news a couple a years ago there was a story about this lady from New Jersey who won the powerball twice in the same year.
I tryed to find the story for u but then gave up and played poker instead.

 

[mls1024]

Yeah the is nothing wrong with this. LMAO . I mean cmon what are the chances.......obviously rigged.

 

[vanquish]

Yeah the is nothing wrong with this. LMAO . I mean cmon what are the chances.......obviously rigged.

i mean the chances are obviously > 0



but anyways, supposedly he won it on the same day of the week, at the same time of day, which makes this much less legitimate

 

[Adventurebound2]

Been a couple of years ago and the site didn't have a bad beat but I sure got one. Pocket Tens, flop TTQ. Villian pushed all in and of course I called another Q hit the felt giving him quads Queens.

I can't fault him for pushing all in with Q's over tens full boat since we were at the final table of a game and I sure can't fault him that the last Queen in the deck hit the table either. No way was I folding quad tens on the flop or anywhere else.

I don't buy that anything was rigged simply because of how much the site stands to loose. Worse case they could loose the entire business and no way are they going to risk that much money for one or two guys. To obvious this will be checked into by authorties to take the risk. It simply happened.

btw, lighting will strick the same object more than once. It's a well documented fact even though the odds of it happening are far greater than anyone hitting the BB jackpot twice in a year.

 

[scorpione]

More BadBeat Jackpots for all pls!

 

[theskillzdatklls]

sounds like an unlikely coincedence, but really... cheaters are smarter than to use the same account twice, i doubt its cheating

 

[CAPT. ZIGZAG]

lol how can you have royal over royal?

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