My luck.

[SrWesleiNF]

You see, it's curious how mathematics manifests at least in poker. If we think that our chances of winning three times in a row against a smaller pair (80% / 20%) are the same as those of winning a "coin flip" (50% / 50%), we can more easily visualize how much Lucky we need to win a tournament? Logic that is not just about luck there is enough skill involved but we will not analyze on this side. I see people talking about having to win several disadvantageous situations to win a "lucky" tournament, but the hole is much lower. If we win only the most advantageous situations, which is already a great thing, combined in sequence, this already makes us immensely lucky in the short term. More like managing this variance of poker, and not freaking out with the bads, so I ask is there luck involved?

 

[MrPokerVerse]

If you are looking at it as luck, wouldn't luck be a 50/50 proposition? You lose some, you win some. You are unlucky on flips, you then are lucky on others. Shouldn't that even out over the long run?

Most of these type of threads always end up with a skill to luck percentage. If this thread ends up with post like that, can you please provide facts to why you believe that? Otherwise it just bunch of irrelevant numbers being thrown around with no significant conclusion.

 

[Transcendence]

Poker is a game with randomness, so Yes, out of 10 can fall 1

 

[Goldog]

Just my luck 🥴

Every percent from “coin flip” to dominated has a luck factor. My Aces can lose to any other hand.

A tournament requires one to portion the luck factor with skill. Most of your plays need to be from the correct side in order to have a decent chance. Some times it works out others not so much. But overall...

 

[MishkaZL]

I believe that success depends first and foremost on the skill and experience of the player. The greater the experience and skill of the player is the greater the likelihood that the player will successfully take advantage of the situation.

 

[Iryna Stryzheuskaya]

A little luck always comes in handy.

 

[williamsc99]

surely there is a percentage of luck involved, more if there is no luck what would be the amateurs

 

[Complx_Poker]

Well the balance of probability can change, so a coin flip the odds might be 50/50, but if you flip a coin 3 times, the probability of it landing on heads all three times in theory is 12.5%. However, each coin flip is independent of any other, so the probability technically still is 50/50 each time.

Luck obviously does play a factor in poker. There are events that are out of your control, that will affect the outcome of the hand. You might be statistically ahead on the flop with your set of 7's. but luck could favour your opponents and instead they hit a flush.

If you play poker correctly, and you call when you should call, and fold when you should fold, even with luck factored in, you should be slowly building up your account size.

If you are on a flush draw on the turn. the theoretical probability that you hit your flush on the river is 35%. This means you should be calling around 1 in 3 times. If it is cheap to call, then you should be calling. If it is an expensive call, perhaps you should look to fold.

Luck exists, but skill will reflect on your earnings. We all get lucky from time to time, but if you play statistically your gains will far outweigh your losses.

Sometimes you get unlucky, but that's all part of the game. How you react because of that unluckiness will also reflect on your earnings. Why get Tilted when you know there is a possibility to be unlucky.

 

[COMIRRR]

In the poker game anything is possible: luck, bad luck, math, sense, ...

 

[Rob Hobson]

In the early stages of the tourneys there are very much luck involved, but as the competition goes the skills become more apparent although luck is still present.
There's no certain amount of luck we need to win the match.
Luck is luck, no odds, no starting hands, no math...And it doesn't choose the bad, the good, neither the ugly. That is it. Lady luck is very welcome, but don't chase her.
Good luck!