Hello Kyle,
Thank you for your e-mail.
As you suspect, we do in fact, get our fair share of emails from players who complain that the site is rigged or that something is off kilter.
Your complaint is one that is common, and one that as a player myself, I sympathize with because I've been there plenty of times. Lately it seems that I keep getting kings cracked by ace/x whenever stacks go in pre-flop.
I think that at least part of the problem with assessing close races such as the AT/KQ is that it is easy for the underdog to go on a significant run.
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Td 953955 55.71 751003 43.86 7346 0.43 0.559
Kh Qh 751003 43.86 953955 55.71 7346 0.43 0.441
Ac Ad 1403604 81.97 299878 17.51 8822 0.52 0.822
Qc Qd 299878 17.51 1403604 81.97 8822 0.52 0.178
There is about a 1.5% chance that the KQ will outdraw AT 5 times in a row. There is about a 0.015% chance that the Queens will outrun the aces 5 times in a row.
To put it in context, the chances of AT holding against KQ five times in a row is about 5.5%, and aces holding 5 times in a row is about 37%.
These are obviously the outlier scenarios, and most will fall somewhere in between. If you pay attention to the percentages though, you will notice that it is significantly easier for the KQ outdraws to show anomalous results when it comes to outdraws because it isn't that far behind. Also, if the expectation is that AT should win 55% of the time, it will take more trials (a larger sample size) before it becomes inevitable that AT will be ahead, than it would with the AA vs QQ scenario because the edge is so much smaller.
If there is anything I've missed or if you have any other concerns, please don't hesitate to contact us.
Regards,
Shujiro
Poker Specialist
Full Tilt Poker Support
