how often can a good player expect to win?

G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
my question is how many winning sessions can a winning player expect to have. obv there are a number of variables that can effect the answer, but im looking for a general response. when i say a session i mean 3 hours or so of playing. say i play 4 hours a day for a month, how many of those sessions can i expect to win? i know none of you know my skill level but i'd like to think im a well over avg player. just a general range would be very helpfull.
 
NoWuckingFurries

NoWuckingFurries

Legend
Joined
Dec 18, 2007
Total posts
3,819
Well presumably you would need to win more often than you lose...
 
C

chardukian

Enthusiast
Joined
Nov 22, 2007
Total posts
40
Even great players win probably between 54-60% of their sessions. Meaning if you're playing 10 tables each time you sit down, each table is considered a session. The reason players can beat the games for a good amount when only winning 54% of their sessions is because they play longer when they are playing well and winning and cut sessions short if they are losing or not playing their A game. Dont be too results oriented. After a day of play don't worry about your results. Focus on your results some after say a 20k hand stretch. Hope this helps and answers your question
 
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

Put the win in penguin
Joined
Jul 10, 2007
Total posts
7,594
Awards
1
The general rule for live professional players is that they earn 1 BB per hour.
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
The general rule for live professional players is that they earn 1 BB per hour.

does that mean if i play .50 nl ill only make .50 an hour? im thinkin maybe it's a little different at higher stakes because there is a better quality of players.

i avg 6.12 bb an hour through 10 000 hands
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Total posts
4,596
Well presumably you would need to win more often than you lose...

This is not necessarily the case. You might lose most/more sessions, but if you make more money on your winning days you will still be a winning player. It's just like the hands themselves: winning players "lose" more hands than they win. In fact, there is an old poker saying "Whoever wins the most pots loses the most money."
 
flint

flint

Visionary
Joined
Jul 8, 2007
Total posts
716
Awards
1
This is where the advantage of multi tabling comes up, if you play 2 or more tables at once it is much easier to balance beats by winning in other sessions. I think a winning player should be able to win money just about every session (Bostonguy, the 80% sounds good).

Generally, you should have a goal of profiting from every session, but you should be happy if you lost very little and be expecting to loose a bit now and then.

In terms of BB/100 hands it really does depend on the level and the player. As I went broke earlier, I have dropped down to 2c/4c tables on Party and I am making good money off them, all you have to remember that in no limit you can be loosing for hours and then with a couple of hands make back the losses plus a nice profit. The game at the level I am playing is poor and I have been able to adjust my reads, so I am making close to 50BB/h by 3 tabling it.
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
when someone says they win 6.12/100bb, does that mean big blind? not sure what big bets mean and is that exclusively for one table or for every table you're playing. sorry im new to pokertracker...
 
NoWuckingFurries

NoWuckingFurries

Legend
Joined
Dec 18, 2007
Total posts
3,819
when someone says they win 6.12/100bb, does that mean big blind? not sure what big bets mean and is that exclusively for one table or for every table you're playing. sorry im new to pokertracker...
Yes, I find it confusing that sometimes people on this site say BB meaning big blind, and sometimes they say it meaning big bets... :dontknow:
 
flint

flint

Visionary
Joined
Jul 8, 2007
Total posts
716
Awards
1
I guess in no limit it is big blinds per 100 hands and in limit it would be big bets (the bigger bets available usually at the turn and the river and often twice bigger than the earlier bets).
 
U

UFCcantstopme

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 8, 2008
Total posts
108
If you are good,

Meaning better than average players. It depends on how many players are in the tourney, if there are 180, or 90 or in that range, i will say 180 player tourneys. Expect to win them, meaning 1st place, one in 8 times. You can probably place in top 18 about every time. i will say 5-7 times out of 8 you will place if you are good. For over 1000 player tournaments, dont get your hopes up, chances are you will lose from a bad beat or just a stupid play. Expect to win a 1000 player tournament, once every 15-25 times.
 
pokerjdud

pokerjdud

Rock Star
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Total posts
357
ahh well i expect to win every time, but sometimes it deosnt work out that way, ur gonna have downswings, but you just have to play through it
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
Meaning better than average players. It depends on how many players are in the tourney, if there are 180, or 90 or in that range, i will say 180 player tourneys. Expect to win them, meaning 1st place, one in 8 times. You can probably place in top 18 about every time. i will say 5-7 times out of 8 you will place if you are good. For over 1000 player tournaments, dont get your hopes up, chances are you will lose from a bad beat or just a stupid play. Expect to win a 1000 player tournament, once every 15-25 times.

no player in the world would be able to do this, not even close. winning 1 out of 8, are you crazy? maybe 1 in 30 for the best player in the world, and even then.
 
C

chardukian

Enthusiast
Joined
Nov 22, 2007
Total posts
40
When you use pokertracker, if you are winning 6.12bb/100 in NL it means you are winning 12.24 big blinds per 100 hands. In limit 6.12bb refers to the big bet. And whoever said a good player should win 80% of their sessions doesn't have any idea what they're talking about. Talk to some of the good online players and ask them. I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%. Greener_lax, if you have other questions just pm me.
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
When you use pokertracker, if you are winning 6.12bb/100 in NL it means you are winning 12.24 big blinds per 100 hands. In limit 6.12bb refers to the big bet. And whoever said a good player should win 80% of their sessions doesn't have any idea what they're talking about. Talk to some of the good online players and ask them. I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%. Greener_lax, if you have other questions just pm me.

yes, i completely agree with you. when people were saying 80% i was like wtf lol. the one guy was talking about how a good player should win 1in 8 180 person mtt lol.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
When you use pokertracker, if you are winning 6.12bb/100 in NL it means you are winning 12.24 big blinds per 100 hands. In limit 6.12bb refers to the big bet. And whoever said a good player should win 80% of their sessions doesn't have any idea what they're talking about. Talk to some of the good online players and ask them. I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%. Greener_lax, if you have other questions just pm me.

I concur ^^^^
 
flint

flint

Visionary
Joined
Jul 8, 2007
Total posts
716
Awards
1
I've talked with Sbrugby, who was easily one of the biggest winners in 07 this same question and his answer was anything between 53-60%.

Some of the said expectations were in fact too high, however it all comes down to stakes. At the .2/.4 level I have been winning every session since I have been rebuilding my BR (sessions are always about an hour with 3-4 tables). Of course the higher the action gets, the smaller the % win rate will be, at 200/400 55-60% will be very good if you approximately win and loose the same amount.
 
Last edited:
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
Some of the said expectations were in fact too high, however it all comes down to stakes. At the .2/.4 level I have been winning every session since I have been rebuilding my BR (sessions are always about an hour with 3-4 tables). Of course the higher the action gets, the smaller the % win rate will be, at 200/400 55-60% will be very good if you approximately win and loose the same amount.

I agree with this. But at the same time, it doesn't matter what stakes, you're going to have losing sessions.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
As a ballpark number I'd say anything up to %60 would be excellent. To put it in perspective, I'm a winning full ring (25nl through 100nl, mostly 50nl and 100nl) player and have won %53 of my sessions.

This is a stat you really shouldn't be concerned with anyways - if you want to see how 'good' of a player you are, look at your winrate.
 
MrAnderson420

MrAnderson420

Rising Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
24
Just won 7th @ Bodog freeroll

I dont win freerolls that often but @ bodog i had some really good competition. Just started there yesterday March 9th and I placed 7th in the freeroll. You gotta know when to holdem i guess!!! I win/cash just about 60% "GET YOUR CHIPS"
 
G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
I dont win freerolls that often but @ bodog i had some really good competition. Just started there yesterday March 9th and I placed 7th in the freeroll. You gotta know when to holdem i guess!!! I win/cash just about 60% "GET YOUR CHIPS"

so your saying you finisih in the money 60% of the time. that's funny, the best players in the world finish in the money 20% of the time. so your cashing 3 times as many as phil ivey. you should be playing in the wsop....
 
L

lionheart527

Guest
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Total posts
24
It seems to be a general rule of thumb that the professional has to win at least 1 BB/hour. But in your case on these sites there will be times in your 4 hour period where nothing will go right for you so your win percentage really depends on your patience during these bad times "Laying down the tough hands" if you will
 
U

UnkNownJacks

Guest
Joined
Mar 11, 2008
Total posts
16
24nd.

I believe that there are many factors that go into how often or whether or not a player wins a session. I believe that between 60-70% of the time is great for almost any player. However, suck outs do happen, and cold decks...among other things. I don't think any players have all winning sessions, but I believe that as long as you are profiting in your sessions you are doing something right.

If you are running like 389.1 BBs/hour, you aren't necessarily a good player, just a lucky player.
 
NoWuckingFurries

NoWuckingFurries

Legend
Joined
Dec 18, 2007
Total posts
3,819
so your saying you finisih in the money 60% of the time. that's funny, the best players in the world finish in the money 20% of the time. so your cashing 3 times as many as phil ivey. you should be playing in the wsop....
I don't remember Phil Ivey playing the Bodog freerolls...
UnkNownJacks said:
Or - as some people prefer to say - 24th. ;)
 
Top