How to determine winning percentage?

[liGreenil]

I've been doing a lot of reading this past week about expected value, pot equity, pot odds and outs. I've come across many times people giving examples of hands and a flop on the board saying what their winning percentage was for that specific flop. How are these calculations made? Or is there simply a chart to memorize? Like for example:

I was holding K(d)-K(s) and I wouldn't know what my opponent was holding. The board flopped Q(s)-3(c)-J(h). At this point in time how can I calculate my winning percentage to determine my best expected value on determining the size of my bet or folding. Can these calculations be made without taking an educated guess at what my opponent holds? Or must I have a good idea what they hold in order to determine what my chances of winning are? :viking:

 

[micromachine]

When people talk about their winning percentages on the flop in a certain hand they are probably getting that information from their tracking software, which tells you in the hand history the percentage chance each player had of winning the hand preflop and on all the different streets.

You have to know your opponents hand to know what your percentage chance of winning is, and I imagine it would be difficult to work out as you have to take into account every eventuality. To work it out based on a a range of possible opponent hands would be impossible without software...or at least it would take a really long time!

 

[okeedokalee]

try pokerstove

 

[dwbrown7680]

You have to be able to narrow down your opponets range to determine bet sizes, etc. In terms of percentages that comes from knowing your opponets cards and is basically a break down of the EV in the hand.

 

[baudib1]

You have to be able to narrow down your opponets range to determine bet sizes, etc.

This is a common misconception. If you follow this logically you would overbet shove with the nuts and bet 1 BB with TPGK. We should be willing to put in an infinite amount of money if we have 50.1% equity against our opponent's range.

 

[dwbrown7680]

This is a common misconception. If you follow this logically you would overbet shove with the nuts and bet 1 BB with TPGK. We should be willing to put in an infinite amount of money if we have 50.1% equity against our opponent's range.

I'm not saying you follow it to the T, but being able to narrow down you opponets range definitely affects how you bet and proceed with a hand. Once you have narrowed down his range it gives you a better perception of what your equity in the hand is, allowing you to be closer to playing perfect poker.