Defining upswing & downswing re: variance

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DROB

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If you have experienced an upswing, how do you define that? I know variance hits us all and I don't want to turn this into another bad beat thread but I am certain that i've never experienced positive variance.
Have been playing very casually for about 8 years now and the story is always the same; build up my roll a little by going through a short periods where the best hand holds up and then have it crash back down again through long periods of consistently implausible beats. 3-4 games go my way and 12-20 games that'd make you want to throw your laptop in a ****ing river.
Is an upswing where you would consistently get it in bad and win? Surely the flip side of what's standard for me is to profit from -ev situations? Therefore am I leaving money on the table by NOT getting it in bad?
 
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bark9188

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No, of course you are not losing money by not getting it in bad. We tend to remember these absurd bad beats, but instead we should focus on the other hands we have played. Bad luck happens to everyone; these downswings you are experiencing may be caused by "smaller" losses in which you could have played the hand better. I would grab a sample of these fringe hands and start posting them for other's input. You may surprise yourself by fine tuning some scenarios that may seem more mundane.
 
Jon Poker

Jon Poker

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Using a program like poker tracker to log your hands for later review can be really helpful. I know some people do not like a HUD but i enjoy mine - either way thats a feature you do not have to use. The ability to review my hands from multiple sessions is great - its one of the best suggestions ive ever gotten and it does help for sure. I try to review at least 2 - 5 hands every day, even if i havnt played for a day or two, its good to keep your mind sharp and will help you identify what you have done wrong in certain spots
 
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DROB

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Thanks for the responses; posting hands is something I have been meaning to do but the defining of pos and neg variance was what I wanted to explore.
For instance, today tallied my consecutive flip loses to 11. This isn't unusual but to win 3+ flips in a row just doesn't happen often. I have gone a couple of weeks without winning one (though I can obviously only tell when there's a showdown) but I've never come close to experiencing "run-good" where the opposite would happen. I know I tend to focus on the negative but there's so much more of it :). Am I thinking of variance in a too simple, black and white way?
 
AcooltartA

AcooltartA

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I went through a 5 month downswing where no matter what I did I came out on the losing end. I mean just terrible beats like set over set and boat over boat. At one point I thought seriously about quitting but then after reviewing hands and such I realized that it was nothing I was doing wrong just was on the losing side of the coin. I kept grinding and things eventually turned around but it is definitely a difficult rut to work yourself out of.
 
frnandoh

frnandoh

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My whole poker run is a downswing :D
 
xpvictor1

xpvictor1

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Should probably track hands for clarity & peace of mind

I should probably track my hands more because I am convinced that I lose on the river with the best starting hand way more often than I win. I just think I am unlucky in poker.
 
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Rolco

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If you are truly experiencing long-run losses, it is due to your own actions rather than bad beats. I know your thread references a small sample size however I'd say you probably have leaks in your play. Accepting this and deciding what to study to improve is the first step.
 
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neafana

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If you have experienced an upswing, how do you define that? I know variance hits us all and I don't want to turn this into another bad beat thread but I am certain that i've never experienced positive variance.
Have been playing very casually for about 8 years now and the story is always the same; build up my roll a little by going through a short periods where the best hand holds up and then have it crash back down again through long periods of consistently implausible beats. 3-4 games go my way and 12-20 games that'd make you want to throw your laptop in a ****ing river.
Is an upswing where you would consistently get it in bad and win? Surely the flip side of what's standard for me is to profit from -ev situations? Therefore am I leaving money on the table by NOT getting it in bad?


It happened to me also:). When you play a stake (MTT or cash) if you increase your bankroll and then lose it all, and it happens every time, there are several reasons:
1. You have a winning period, you increase stake not being prepared and lose everything;
2. You have and upswing and then an downswing at the same stake. In the downswing period it seems that you are tilting, play bad. Overall it could be that you are not good for that stake.

A winning player, overall is winning at the current stake and take shots at a bigger stake. You have to learn move into stakes until you find where you can play more comfortable and of course, win money.
 
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M13A13

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It is the recurring fact of online poker, are the stories heard in poker chats. But today to diblar the variances of poker and the downswings, I usually limit the amounts of hands, today I play some 200 hands and not win raise and if it conquer I rise in the same way.
The worst is when you do not hit the flop and when you hit it, you end up being surprised by some three or two pairs or even losing a river.
Another thing you can do is pick up the cashier whenever you can to save the winnings and not want to form a bankroll.
 
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LongRover

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Defining upswings and downswings re: Variance

The upswings and downswings involved in playing poker over time are not Variance - rather, they are the result of variance. Think of these upswings and downswings as your stack upon a NLHE game table. If you lose, your stack (chips) decreases or goes into a downswing. If you win, your stack (chips) increases or goes into an upswing. Either way, upswings or downswings, on or off the tables, are not variance. They are the net result of it.

So, if you win more games than you lose over a set period of time, say, like a year. It can be said that you have finished the year on an upswing. Conversely, if you lose more games than you win over a set period of time, it can be said that you ended the year on a downswing.

Upswings and downswing are like increases and decreases in stack sizes on a poker table. Upswings, downswings, increases in stack sizes or decreases in stack sizes are not in themselves -Variance. They are the result of Variance in the hands played upon the table - either in one game or in many games played over a set time.

If you understand what I am saying herein, you are getting a very clear idea about Variance. If you do not, then I have not explained Variance well enough.

I will try to explain it in a similar way. Variance is the diiference between expectations and outcomes. If a player expects to win, and does not, there is Variance - because Variance is the difference between expectations and outcomes. Similarly, If a player expects to be on an upswing over a set period of time, and it turns out that he actually is in a downswing, then there is a Variance between his expectations of winning games and the outcome of losing games.

These Variances are not the upswings and downswings themselves. Upswings and downswings, like increases and decreases in stack size, are the result of expectations and outcomes not being met on the tables during hands in one game or many games across a set period of time. Thus, downswings, upswings, increases or decreases in stack size are the results of Variance - and are not Variance in, and of, themselves.
 
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