can someone explain to me how this works???

[ph_il]

OK this is a little something i discovered when i was messing around during the early years of hold em. i dont remember how i came across it or whatever or why i even experimented with it...here it is:

basically, you want the "overcards" to your cards to be less then the unseen cards on the table.

for example: 2/7 has 19 over cards. 12 cards over 2, 7 cards over 7 get it?

the unseen cards are the hands of your opponent + the burn cards. so if you're sitting at a full table. it would be 16 + 3 = 19 unseen cards.

the goal is to have your hands "overcards" at -2 over the unseen cards. so at a full table it would be 17 over cards/19 unseen cards

so for any number of opponents, its 2 overcards less then the unseen cards.

confused? hope not...

anyway, heres what happens. 90% of the time i hit a pair with my hand. Does it win? usually not, but thats not what i want to know. im wondering how does it work? why do i hit pairs when i do this?

only way i can think of using this in a game is if im in late position, everyone has limped in. its on me and my crappy hand shows i could hit a pair. then i can just pray that i flop the pair with a board of low cards, its checked to me...i bet and take it down. heh heh..yah right.

 

[Kj Sexton]

:banghead: :dito:

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Can you expand on this? Im not sure what you are talking about, but it has a ring of a short cut to some other math, I work with. Ill be glad to expand once I confirm if it si a shortcut or not.

Bill

 

[Four Dogs]

That IS very interesting. Sound familiar to anyone?

 

[TheAudition]

Full table would be 18+3 i get what you are saying not sure how it would help though. According to your theory if i have 19 overcards i would hit a single pair? Not really sure if 19 overcards have anything do with it or the fact that 6/50 of the remaining cards yeild a pair and 1/10(5/50) of the deck gets shown so usually you'll get a single pair on the board regardless of the number of overcards.

 

[holduplaya]

I think you should consult your math instructor. I did a few times and some get very interested in this game. cheers!

Good Luck at the Tables.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Umm what the heck are we talking about here. I can not confirm or deny or even add to this conversation cause I simply have no idea what we are talking about.

Audition can you expand on this? Im starting to think it is non sense but id like to understand it before I dismiss it.

Thanks
Bill

 

[TheAudition]

O its total nonsense imo. According to this theory if the number of overcards is 2 less than the number of unseen cards you will get a pair. That in no way shape or form even effects the probablity of one of the 6 cards that will give you a pair showing up on the board. 6/50 = numofcards to give you a pair / remaining cards in the deck.. 5/50 = numofcards that is shown on the board/remaining cards in the deck. Having 20 overcards or having 1 overcard your chances of having one of the 6 cards appear on the board is still the same. Its nonsense.

 

[ph_il]

this isnt a winning strategy ive posted. im not looking to make into something big. its really BS. i admit it. What im asking is why i keep coming with the results. is it sheer luck? or some formula that im missing? Ive done this with many different decks. shuffled many different times and ways. and at different periods of time and i keep coming with the same result. that being: i hit a pair with the cards im holding. i tested it again yesterday. I made up a full table set up, passing out to nine "players" including myself. all face up, then i figured out where each hand ranked and which had the better chance of hitting. i even moved the "button" so i wasnt starting at the same "person". out of the 20x i tested it, i hit a pair with the hand that had the better chance of hitting 16x. This isnt a winning strat, im not trying to make it a winning strat. i just wanting to know why do the pairs keep showing up. even on some occasions, i was looking at some of my outs on the board and it still paired. ...im leaning on the just a coinidence thing.

i dont know how to explain anymore then i already have. if i can figure out a simpler way, ill post. BTW this isnt some BS troll thread. i dont post bs threads here. its just something ive come across and im wondering about. ill another set of testing tonight and post the hands and win percentages.

 

[TheAudition]

A full table is ten first of all and second of all each card has an equal chance of pairing going into the flop from your point of view. 3/50 it doesn't change no matter WHAT. Obviously it is just a concidence. It makes 0 sense atop of that. Iuno if you have even past an applied math class to ask input on something like this.

 

[Styrofoam]

It really doens't make sense as to why this would work mathmatically...at all...it has to be coincidence.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

OK I thought I just didnt understand, because I had a hard time corraling two independent non corollary premises. That overcards, and unseen cards, afected probability.

Apparently, I did understand the theory is what makes no sense. lol

20 runs is not even remotely close to statistically accurate. If you are flipping a coin you have to do it more than that to eradicate statistical "runs"

BIll