A question of LUCK

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marcoslopezbl

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For years, I've believed that poker is a game of skill rather than luck. And, even if I can recognise the part it plays in the short term, I've been critical of people claiming to be "lucky" or "unlucky". However, I believe there are some games, like heads/tails or rock/paper/scissors which are entirely based on luck.

I recently watched Daniel Negreanu's poker Masterclass (which I definitely recommend) and, while defining himself as an "exploitative player" gave the following example. Imagine I can recognize that a certain RPS player shows "rock" 40% of the time while showing "paper" and "scissors" 30% of the time. I would adjust my strategy to show "paper" 40% of the time and I would therefore win more often.

Which leads me to my question. Apart from flipping a coin (which I would argue is not a "game" per se) is there ANY GAME whose outcome is SOLELY determined by luck?
 
ASMautoneJr

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For years, I've believed that poker is a game of skill rather than luck. And, even if I can recognise the part it plays in the short term, I've been critical of people claiming to be "lucky" or "unlucky". However, I believe there are some games, like heads/tails or rock/paper/scissors which are entirely based on luck.

I recently watched Daniel Negreanu's poker Masterclass (which I definitely recommend) and, while defining himself as an "exploitative player" gave the following example. Imagine I can recognize that a certain RPS player shows "rock" 40% of the time while showing "paper" and "scissors" 30% of the time. I would adjust my strategy to show "paper" 40% of the time and I would therefore win more often.

Which leads me to my question. Apart from flipping a coin (which I would argue is not a "game" per se) is there ANY GAME whose outcome is SOLELY determined by luck?



that's why poker is poker, there is the skill,
the skill or cunning define it as being a factor other than luck, which is patience, and waiting for the cards and moments to play poker, and the moment that comes AA KK, and goes all in and luck does not help !!! iuEH AIUEH IOhA OIEhA Oh OEIH OIh losing with AA KK is because it is very good !!!! iUAEhAIUEH IOUEH oiUE

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
 
tauri103

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roulette is a game the outcome of which is determined only by luck. but from my experience on this game I think that even luck follows a routine which sometimes tends to be repeated. if we are attentive and act at the right time. we can take advantage of it and anticipate the numbers or at least in which box the ball will fall. it is not an exact science but it can help you make the right decisions.
 
Phoenix Wright

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... Imagine I can recognize that a certain RPS player shows "rock" 40% of the time while showing "paper" and "scissors" 30% of the time. I would adjust my strategy to show "paper" 40% of the time and I would therefore win more often.

Which leads me to my question. Apart from flipping a coin (which I would argue is not a "game" per se) is there ANY GAME whose outcome is SOLELY determined by luck?

As noted, some games are 100% "luck" (or variance, or statistics, or whatever semantics people categorize it as). Casino slots is another good example. Okay, sure, you might know the probability of winning if you knew the programming within that specific machine at that time, but from the player perspective, it is purely luck as nothing you can do can help you win more (granted, there are "tricks" and "strategies" such as which slot machines to play and for how long, but for this example I am assuming you are only playing the same machine constantly).

As far as your Rock-Paper-Scissors example with them throwing Rock 40% of the time, research "Nash equilibrium" if this is new to you. This is only one minor point of the broader field of study known as "Game Theory" in philosophy/statistics, but once Nash equilibrium is reached (point when changing strategy is no longer beneficial and your perspective is optimized), then the deviation in short-term results (although it should balance long-term by definition of the game state) would be luck in the purest form.

At least that is how I see it.
 
Alex Sentsov

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Poker is a mix of skill and luck...and sometimes luck wins out over skill :)
 
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for me it's a game where you have to
be with skill and luck at the rigth table.
 
linf

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it is the combination of luck and skill that makes poker so popular. this is not pure math and not pure luck
 
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marcoslopezbl

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As noted, some games are 100% "luck" (or variance, or statistics, or whatever semantics people categorize it as). Casino slots is another good example. Okay, sure, you might know the probability of winning if you knew the programming within that specific machine at that time, but from the player perspective, it is purely luck as nothing you can do can help you win more (granted, there are "tricks" and "strategies" such as which slot machines to play and for how long, but for this example I am assuming you are only playing the same machine constantly).

As far as your Rock-Paper-Scissors example with them throwing Rock 40% of the time, research "Nash equilibrium" if this is new to you. This is only one minor point of the broader field of study known as "Game Theory" in philosophy/statistics, but once Nash equilibrium is reached (point when changing strategy is no longer beneficial and your perspective is optimized), then the deviation in short-term results (although it should balance long-term by definition of the game state) would be luck in the purest form.

At least that is how I see it.


So, I'm back after going down the rabbit's hole of Nash Equilibrium for a couple hours. I found the reading about cooperation/competition and finite knowledge dilemmas particularly interesting. Thanks for the tip! See you at the tables!
 
SPANKYSN

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If poker were all luck, we would not see the same players at the final tables of large tournaments. Luck does, however, play a large part. I have zero chance of beating Tiger Woods in golf or Roger Federer in tennis. I did, however, outlast some big name poker pros at the 2019 wsop Colossus event.
 
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rigor mortis

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You are only as good as the cards you are dealt.
 
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