# Why can't I just win one coinflip on the bubble of a big tourney?

#### jaymfc

##### R.I.P DJ & Buck
Loyaler
this is all we're saying , if it's 50/50 then it has to win 50% of the time in the long run . period ! if your 20/80 then you just have to play the correct amount of hands and bam , back to 50/50 , so keep playing cause you got a lot of coinflips coming your way . lol . good luck.

B

#### Bentheman87

##### Visionary
Silver Level
Yea, I'm saying I don't understand how it's possible that I win less than 30% of all my coinflips, when the definition of a coinflip is a 50-50. It should be impossible, but somehow that's how it is for me ALL THE TIME. Over the long run I don't win 50% of my coinflips like all of you, I win less than 30% of them. And I'm not saying this because I lost a few coinflips in a row in one session, I'm saying this because I've been playing on Full tilt for months and its the truth.

#### Insomniac_1006

##### Visionary
Silver Level
Full Tilt the site, or frame of mind? You know, are you tilted?

#### Cheetah

##### Visionary
Silver Level
Yea, I'm saying I don't understand how it's possible that I win less than 30% of all my coinflips, when the definition of a coinflip is a 50-50. It should be impossible, but somehow that's how it is for me ALL THE TIME. Over the long run I don't win 50% of my coinflips like all of you, I win less than 30% of them. And I'm not saying this because I lost a few coinflips in a row in one session, I'm saying this because I've been playing on Full tilt for months and its the truth.

OK, this time I am responding seriously.

To quantify "luck", it is very important how many coin-fliops you actually had. Bentheman, do you know that?

I calculated the probabilities and odds for a variety of cases. For example, if we had 30 coin-flip races and we won only 9 (which is 30%), the probability that we are so unlucky is about 2%. Equivalently, the odds for this happening are 46 to 1.

One way to interpret this is that if we take 47 players and let them race on coin-flips 30 times, ONE of them will get less than 30% wins.

If you had a sequence of 150 coin-flips, then the odds to be that unlucky are abouit 2 million to 1. Is that possible? Of course. It is less likely to win the lottery, but when millions play, someone gets lucky. So if you are less than 30% after 150 races, you could literally say that this is "one in a million". More accurately one in two millions.

The next row, 200 races, is significant. The odds to be that unlucky are about 133 million to one. I would estimate that there are approximately 100 million poker players in the world. So if you get less than 30% of 200 races, you can say that you are the unluckiest poker player on earth!

At 250, the odds are 9 billion to 1. There are not that many people on earth(yet).

Once you go a little further, the odds are astronomical and for all practical purposes, it becomes "impossible".

Bentheman, you now have the quantitative foundation to determine how unlucky you really are. But you have to tell us how many races you had. If you are basing this on less than 100 races, then it is perfectly possible that you had an unlucky sequence.

If you are using 300 races, I would not believe it.

Please post the number of races on which you are basing your unlucky experience.

And better luck in any future races.

P.S. If anyone is interested how I am calculating these odds, please let me know and I will try to explain it.

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#### ratmantoo

##### Visionary
Silver Level
I love these kind of posts because I feel like it happens to me too!!!

But seriously without a tracking program it impossible to really analyse this. I recently felt the same but when I checked on Poker Tracker it was really a case of winning only 47% of my coin flips.

In addition if you really are only winning 30% then you are due to have some incredible runs in future just due to the law of averages.

Keep at it and get some tracking software. Good luck on the felt

#### Cheetah

##### Visionary
Silver Level
In addition if you really are only winning 30% then you are due to have some incredible runs in future just due to the law of averages.

Rat, unfortunately it is not true that he is due for a better run. Each event is independent of the past. So he is equally likely to have another bad run as well as a good run.