When to put down a hand

Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

Legend
Hi all.

An area I still find hard to deal with is the above.

An example from last night, but I can`t be exact. About 30% of players left in $10 buy in MTT. I was delt AK on button (5k). I raise 5 times bb (1k). Chip leader (17k), middle position, calls. He had been calling with anything.

Flop Q73 rainbow. He checks, so I raise 1/2 pot. He calls. Turn 10 (no flush draws avail. Again I raise about 2k, leaving me with 2k, he calls again.

Now, if I can stop here!!!

This for me is when the problems start. I am almost pot committed (pot about 7k now)
My thoughts with my % next to it
  • He probably has something, but not much. (small pp, he has caught 7 or 3) - 60% (seems like he was wanting to improve or see some kind of weakness from me)
  • He has caught 2 pair as he seemed to be playing any 2 suited cards. 10% - (I think he would have raised by now)
  • He has nothing at all and is bluffing - 20% (He has done this a lot of times and shown his bluff)
  • He has the Q - 10% (He would have raised by now to get rid of me with an ace of some sort)
River 9. He now checks again. He has about 12k left. What do I do???

I`ve got Ace high. If I raise he will probably call for the extra 2k. If I check I`m probably beat with a pair. With 2k left I`m so far behind I`m out of the tourny. Top 10 paid, 30ish left and I would be in 30th.

What do I do and why???

I`m sorry its a bit sketchy, but I hope u guys get the jist of it ;)
 
MrDaMan

MrDaMan

Visionary
This is one of those times ... gah why do I play this frustrating game!

What comes to my mind is am I playing to make the cash or to win it all?

A/K is a great hand in this late stage near the bubble, it's the kind of hand you can steal the blinds with from UTG, it's also troubling if you get a caller and don't hit the flop.

In this case it's the chip leader who called, someone you really need to avoid unless you've got a great hand, which you did pre-flop but post flop you have a decison to make.

He's checked to you, with your stack size you can represent A/A and go all-in, bet 1/2 the pot or check. Checking represents weakness or trickery (table image), betting half the pot = weaskness or a probing bet, he's chip leader and can afford to speculate a couple of thousand. Probably holding 10/10 or other mid pair and not sure of his read on you.

Since he checked the turn and he called your probing bet, your're probably beat, personally with only 2k left at this point I check it down and fold to his bet unless I am 90% convinced he's bluffing.

The play here is all-in on the flop to his check, or check and fold. Depending on my read of the chip leader, if my image is tight and I have had the chip leaders respect before... I go all-in, if he has been calling loosely and getting lucky, pressuring players with his chips I check and fold if he bets.

I like to play to win, getting to the cash is nice getting to the final table is better, ignore the bubble except for strategy. It's a good time for stealing blinds and pressuring smaller atacks, a time to get in your ZONE be highly aware, TAG in EP and LAG in LP.

I have no problem with the pre-flop raise, I'll often mix it up though more often than not near the bubble I'll go all-in with it 80% of the time rather than just raise the pot, dependant on my stack size, position and what I think other players might do.

Try not to tangle with the chip leaders and with the players who have been getting lucky over and over unless you've got the best hand, then LOL those chip leaders and lucky players still will often draw out on you.

Don't know if this helped but it's my perspective of the scenario you gave us. I read it in a poker magazine or book lately the philosphy of the old Indian tradition. "It's a good day to die." You go to war with the best that you've got if you die ... well you gave it your best. Fortunately in poker when you die you can re-buy or enter another torunament. Fear is the mindkiller it must be overcome to get the winning attitude.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
At that point you're "almost" pot committed? No, you're as pot committed as they come, I'm afraid :(

Edit: And check behind on the turn. You have four outs to the nuts, and your overcard outs are worth something. Seeing a free river isn't a bad idea at all at this point.
 
gord962

gord962

Legend
So why can't you check the river here?? Villain seems like the classic calling station. If you are sure you are beat why put more money in the pot? Playing against people like this you need to make it as cheap as possible for yourself if you haven't hit your hand. Unless you hit, don't try to bluff them as they will call all the way down.

I agree with FP that you check behind on the turn on this one, you have position so use it to your advantage. Betting on the flop will keep the villain from leading out on the turn which gives you the opportunity to see a free river card if you didn't improve on the turn card.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

euro love
Oh yeah, check behind on the river. What point is there in betting? He's not going to fold for another 2k in a 9k pot if he has any hand whatsoever.
 
B

baystate123

Guest
You're asking what to do and why. I'm assuming first that you are asking what to do after you've reached the river. Really, I agree with you that you are probabally beat. So you've got no reason in the world to bet out the rest of your money there. He will call and you will lose. At least if you check there's a chance that he'll check it down and you're still playing for the money.
The big question is what should you have done before the river. I don't know if you are asking for an opinion there so I won't telll you how to play your game. You had a nice money-making hand there in a nice position. Unfortunately the only calls you got were from the chipleader and this is what can happen when tangling with them. The rich get richer?
 
Coryan

Coryan

Guest
I like the PF and flop plays, but...

I agree that you check on the river. The only other play is an allin, semi-bluff on the river. You already know he plays loose...so you can't be surprised with his calls. (BTW, this is a weakness of mine...betting into a loose calling machine without a made hand.) You check and see the river and you still have chips to play with. You push allin on the turn and he has a tough decision to make. Did he want to put nearly 1/3 his chips at risk on this hand? If your read on him is good, an allin may be an okay play here. I am 85% check and 15% allin on the turn.

Now, on the river, what do you do? To me, there is no question that you check and hope your ace-high wins. The only hand you can beat is a chaser that never hit. (NOTE: He's not bluffing...betting is bluffing, calling is not.) At showdown, he wins with any pair. If he has a pair (and given what you know of him), why wouldn't he call for 2k and a pot of 7k? If you check and he wins the hand, you have 10bbs to play with. That is enough to find a hand and hope to double up. You are down, but not out. So, there is no way I bet on the river!

BTW, being pot committed does not mean you have to bet the river.
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

Legend
Thanks for the replys guys

All very valid points.

In my mind, the reason for the all in on the river is two fold
  1. I felt there was a 20% chance he had nothin (roughly)
  2. I would have been left with about 2000 chips, way off the pace, so I thought it was worth a punt - he might have folded, might :D (Obviously, by going all in I was futher off the pace!!!)
Looking back, I should have gone all in after the flop or checked the turn/ river.

I think I also have to accept that from time to time you will make a bad call or mistake???
 
mrsnake3695

mrsnake3695

I'm confused
T.J. writes about AK in his book. He talks about getting away from it fast if it doesn't hits. Basically what he says is that if you raise pre-flop with AK and someone calls that indicates they have some sort of hand. If you don't hit on the flop you can easily get in a trap of continuing to put money in the pot with second best hand. Check/folding here isn't the end of the world. Continuation bets are fine and a good idea often but against the chip leader that is more than willing to go all the way with a weak hand it's not such a good idea. A continuation bet is basically a bluff and you don't bluff at calling stations, especially one that can easily bust you. The ones to bluff are medium sized stacks that don't want to risk becoming a short stack. Therefore, this was a good time to give up on you Ace/king after the flop. The situation wasn't right to continue to put money in the pot with ace high.

AK is by far the most misplayed hand post flop in holdem. You are much better off shoving pre-flop and seeing all five cards if you get a caller than puting money in in drips and drabs with ace high until you have nothing left.

I'm sure alot of people will disagree with this as everyone thinks you have to make a continuation bet almost every time you raise pre-flop but that just isn't the case here. The reads were that villan is a loose player with plenty of chips that he doesn't mind splashing around on spec, exactly the type of player you want to value bet not bluff and a continuation bet with nothing is a bluff.

Learn to fall out of love with A/K and you will save alot of money.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
And check behind on the turn. You have four outs to the nuts, and your overcard outs are worth something. Seeing a free river isn't a bad idea at all at this point.

This is absolutely key. Villain check-called the flop that's rainbow and practically drawless. He pretty clearly is almost never drawing here, so what are you trying to force out? He's either got a hand or he's a calling station and neither of these cases justify betting the turn, especially given your hand.
 
gord962

gord962

Legend
Don't be results oriented. Would it matter if he beat you with 7-4, 2-3 or QQ? NO. Why? Because why would he bother to bet if you are going to put your entire stack in the pot while you are behind? The fact is you could have seen the flop for free by checking the turn and folded the river when you didn't hit and you would have had 4K left. Instead, you bluffed yourself out of the tourney.
 
H

Heraclitus

Enthusiast
you are not pot committed so you do not bet, nearly any call has you beat... he has a large stack and will call because of pot odds... chances are he called your original raise with a mid pair.
 
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