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naruto_miu

naruto_miu

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This early in a tourney, and at this level, ppl are playing blind poker or atleast that one player was, what were the blinds 10/20, that one player risking all his chips to win so little, with AK, you really can't fold there because I mean yes it's not the best of hands, but your beating his hands I agree with Vanquish 's "Insta Call" theory and Second that motion
 
scorpione

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With no info of the oppo I think I can fold this one.

It's only 1st level of the tourney, and my AKoff is a coinflip against every pair (47% me, vs 52% oppo) I don't want to risk the tourney in this situation, it's only the beginning and I have all the time to play better situations.
 
robwhufc

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It's only 1st level of the tourney, and my AKoff is a coinflip against every pair (47% me, vs 52% oppo) I don't want to risk the tourney in this situation, it's only the beginning and I have all the time to play better situations.
47/52 IF he's got a pair (and with money in the pot you've got those odds). Better chance if he has unmatched unders. Much better if he has Ax.

If you enter a SnG or an MTT, best result obviously is to win it. Then of course it is to cash. After that, best result is to go out in round 1.

I wouldn't advocate playing like a lunatic, but you'll probably be putting your MTT / SNG on the line with a lot worse than AK at some stage an hour down the line, so why so scared now?

Easy call for me, especially if someone has taken a bit of a hit and is looking to bounce back - win and you're positioned to make a run at the win, lose and you're probably heading for an early exit, but there's always another SnG coming along in a minute.

I wonder how many of the "folders" have won an MTT or a Multi table SnG, and if so how did they do it?
 
TWiTCHaH

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I would of called that in a second pre-flop. I've seen so many people in those level tournaments push all-in with A/Q, A/J, A/10suited, ect. You probably had him crushed, and if not you were probably close to 50/50.
 
K

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Like others have implied, every hand is a drawing hand. For example, with AK vs QQ, the queens are drawing to non-Aces and Kings. It's just a psychological thing when people say they'd rather have a "made hand".
 
D

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With no info of the oppo I think I can fold this one.

It's only 1st level of the tourney, and my AKoff is a coinflip against every pair (47% me, vs 52% oppo) I don't want to risk the tourney in this situation, it's only the beginning and I have all the time to play better situations.

But you don't have all the time to play better situations. Blinds are going up every 10 minutes. So in 1 hour you will be up 6 levels. How many hands will you be dealt in one hour, 45 if your lucky? Of those 45 hands you will be the SB and BB roughly 8 times. You really are looking at having very few opportunities. I think because of the structure of the tournament, 27 opponents with blinds moving up every 10 minutes this is an insta call situation. You have AK and are at worst a coin flip. If you plug in the potential for Ax, you are actually ahead.

If you want to get deep into this tournament you have to gamble in this situation.
 
7

7letters

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If you fold that hand in that situation, then what are you gonna call with? AA only? Because if you fold AK like this you're sure he has AA or KK, and therefore you must fold KK too because then his range is only AA, right? =)

Calling here is not luck based, you're clearly ahead of his range, which, with no reads, you have to assume consists of half the pairs and big aces. Think about it this way: if you fold this hand here, it's profitable to re-raise you everytime with any two cards, since you'll be folding everything but big pairs, which you won't get enough times to compensate...



Well lets not make generalisations here :)
This is one single hand I chose to fold in one particular situation.

If your assumptions about my play was as clear cut as you suggest then why would I bother posting this question?

I felt I should call here but in that instance I folded. I thought I'd ask for views on the hand.

As for your observations on opponent having AA/KK, I don't follow your reasoning.


I've been following the thread and thanks to all those who posted here.
 
vanquish

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I don't play many SnG's, but it really does not matter. Any all-in preflop is an instafold for me. Doesn't really have anything to do with BR size or BRM. The game is supposed to be No Limit Holdem, not All-In Luckem. I'm of the Sammy Farha thinking. Show me cards and I play, and not just the 2 in the hole. there's 5 more hiding out there. Too much like playing hide 'n seek for all-in pf's.

It's not for everyone, but it works for me.

man im facepalming so hard from reading this. what you're saying basically is a pure indication that you have a weak fundamental understanding of no limit hold em.
 
blankoblanco

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I don't play many SnG's, but it really does not matter. Any all-in preflop is an instafold for me. Doesn't really have anything to do with BR size or BRM. The game is supposed to be No Limit Holdem, not All-In Luckem. I'm of the Sammy Farha thinking. Show me cards and I play, and not just the 2 in the hole. there's 5 more hiding out there. Too much like playing hide 'n seek for all-in pf's.

It's not for everyone, but it works for me.

dude, you have to accept that there is an element of gambling and luck to poker that is unavoidable if you want to play well. what you're saying makes absolutely no sense and would be scoffed at by anyone who understands the game

why are you drawing your line at preflop? what about an all-in on the flop? you can still be outdrawn. in fact you'll often be a lesser % to win after the flop than you will preflop. i mean, if you're going to wait until you have the un-outdrawable nuts to get all-in, you're missing out on tons and tons of equity and you will absolutely never be a good player

and don't say you're of the sammy farha thinking, because if he saw what you were saying he'd be like "R U SERIOUS?"

don't mean to be harsh, this is just one of the most egregious things i've seen written around here in a while, especially in regard to tournaments. it's unfathomable and it's really in your best interest to either see the light and change this way of thinking or quit poker
 
ABorges

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Any all-in preflop is an instafold for me.
First word that came to mind was "leak".

Well lets not make generalisations here
smile.gif

This is one single hand I chose to fold in one particular situation.

If your assumptions about my play was as clear cut as you suggest then why would I bother posting this question?

I felt I should call here but in that instance I folded. I thought I'd ask for views on the hand.

As for your observations on opponent having AA/KK, I don't follow your reasoning.


I've been following the thread and thanks to all those who posted here.


If you felt you should call why exactly did you fold? Why do you miss on +EV when you actually BELIEVE it's +EV? I don't get that. I get why you posted, sure, you wanted insight on what other people do in that situation and I provided my insight... all I'm trying to do is help you with your play, that's it.

Why don't you follow the reasoning behind folding only to AA/KK? Unlike an alarming number of people stated in this thread, AK is NOT a drawing hand. There's a reason it's one of the few called premium and there's a reason why it's one of the hands that yields you the most profit long term. By knowing a little bit about preflop percentages, you know you're only a really significant underdog versus those two hands. There's absolutely nothing that should make you think you're up against either of those right now. You're flipping against all pairs except those two and you smash any other big ace or king. Therefore, it's a clear call and you're missing on tons of value when you make folds like these.
 
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AlexeiVronsky

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Ok, let's say he's shoving fairly liberally here with 22+, AKo, or AJs+ your pot equity is 45.3%, and you're paying 42.1% of the pot which seems all good on the surface, but this is a tournament, there's no reason to take such a marginal edge. When you consider your tournament odds from making this call which is likely at least a modifier of 1.2 you're a 3.1% favourite for pot odds but since this is a tournament your expected value from tournament payouts goes down 5.2%. It's a good play to call in a cash game if you think someone would make that play with that range, but it's bad for a tournament. He could of course be playing something like KQ and you have him dominated but I wouldn't put that in his range so I think it's a laydown here. If you were the one pushing and had fold equity on your side I'd definitely go for it, but not calling the all-in, you don't have to beat just him, you have to make it to the money.
 
D

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AlexeiVronsky,

I don't see any real need to run the hand ranges. This is really not a mathematical question. So far I don't think any poster has denied this is a gamble, a coin flip. What if pot equity was 52%? Who cares it is still a hefty gamble.

IMO, the question is more about tournament strategy. So I am interested in how you are trying to mathematically guess how it will effect making the money? If our hero loses, he still has 900 of the 1350 he started with with blinds 10/20. He is not in bad shape. If he wins he has 3020 and is able to losen up his play a bit and put pressure on the shorter stacks. The structure being 27 sng with 10 minute levels does not give our hero the luxury of waiting for many opportunities.

I guess I'm wondering why you would say his overall odds are modified by 1.2 based on a single hand with less than 50% equity? If you knew for instance, that from this point on hero would be getting dealt only Q7, what would be the modification to his overall odds, 0 modification correct? And if instead you expected an equal distribution of hands, but know our hero would fold AK,AQ,22-88 to any all-in, how would that effect the odds?
 
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7

7letters

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First word that came to mind was "leak".




If you felt you should call why exactly did you fold? Why do you miss on +EV when you actually BELIEVE it's +EV? I don't get that. I get why you posted, sure, you wanted insight on what other people do in that situation and I provided my insight... all I'm trying to do is help you with your play, that's it.

Why don't you follow the reasoning behind folding only to AA/KK? Unlike an alarming number of people stated in this thread, AK is NOT a drawing hand. There's a reason it's one of the few called premium and there's a reason why it's one of the hands that yields you the most profit long term. By knowing a little bit about preflop percentages, you know you're only a really significant underdog versus those two hands. There's absolutely nothing that should make you think you're up against either of those right now. You're flipping against all pairs except those two and you smash any other big ace or king. Therefore, it's a clear call and you're missing on tons of value when you make folds like these.

I'm very happy to hear your views, so thanks for those.
I'm not defending my play here just asking for members opinions.

Bit of a delay in replying to this one, but I'll explain my thoughts at the time.
It's just a fold I made during a game, we all have decisions to make,
we make what we believe is the best decision and we all get that wrong at times.
The general opinion here is that my fold was wrong and I'll take that on board.

Yeah, I think my first instinct at the time was to call. I changed my mind.

I have 1860 chips with the game at 20 BB's and I decided to fold
and use that stack.

Like you say, it's probably likely I'm ahead or I'm in a coin flip(rather than behind to an AA/KK)
Considering he isnt playing an Ax/high cards, where I'll be favourite in a 70-30 or 60-40 race - a pocket pair of some sort was a distinct possibility
and maybe I decided to make my judgement on a flip situation..
- Do I want a coin flip now? Is the question I asked myself.

My choice - which I'm not saying is the right one - was that..
- I can call win a flip and have 2280 chips
- I can fold and continue with 1860 chips which I'm happy with.
- I can call, lose and have 900 chips, which isn't terrible but I'd be happier playing with 1860.

Truth is, on stars this year I'm making a profit at cash games and losing at tourneys - my confidence on flips in tourneys is very low - if someone can hit a card on me on stars they seem to right now ...my choice was to continue patiently, make steals with a stack advantage and hopefully outplay some people along the way to obtain a win.
Can't remember exactly but I think I got 2nd in this game for £36.

Anyway.. appreciate the replies and I understand the reasoning.
 
robwhufc

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My choice - which I'm not saying is the right one - was that..
- I can call win a flip and have 2280 chips
- I can fold and continue with 1860 chips which I'm happy with.
- I can call, lose and have 900 chips, which isn't terrible but I'd be happier playing with 1860.

It's 3,060 chips not 2,280, and it's either a flip or better (or worse :( ).
 
7

7letters

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Yes your right it is. Addededed it up wrong. I do that all the time - no wonder
my corner shop is doing so well. Why do the Inland Revenue keep ringing me?:)
 
Pothole

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Some very interesting points brought out in this thread and it's odd to see so many differing views. At the end of the day you can only lose if your in the hand and if your happy with the fold then so be it. For me it's an insta call as pre flop AK while many say is over valued, is still in the very top percentage of starting hands in terms of strength and well within my range to make the call. I know you said this was just one hand and the emphasis was that it was early in the game which implies that had it been later in the game you would have called? ( same Q goes to the others who said they would fold ). Would the same folders have folded with KK ? are you all basically saying irrespective of your hole cards you will fold to an all in pre flop early in a tournament ? Bad strategy to my way of thinking,,,,,,just my 2 cents.
 
7

7letters

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No I wouldn't fold KK. It would take a very exceptional circumstance to fold KK and I can't think of one right now.
AK, it would depend on the situation, stack sizes, blinds, opponent, so I couldn't give a straight answer there.
 
vanquish

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they be like luda! i be like yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah
 
JimmyBrizzy

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Charting Strategy in Tournament Play
By Justin Rollo

Many players seem to be caught up on the notion of when and when not to take coin flips or 60-40 situations in tournaments. While there isn't a concrete answer to this question, there are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the need to win flips to win a tournament. The only real question to ask is not one of if, but when.

chart-1.jpg


In the chart above, $ev is monetary estimated value, or how much in real dollars a move means to you; cEV is chip estimated value, or how much in chips you will gain from a move. As you see in the chart, as a tournament goes deeper, $ev becomes more important then cEV.

When you are early in a tournament and are facing a situation in which you are likely 50-50 and have already put chips in, you are usually in a positive ev situation when calling. Therefore, based on this chart, I would likely be taking these risks early while not taking as many of them late. Taking 50-50s late creates large variance in your overall $ev, which is most important late in tournaments.

Let's say that you have A-K early in a tournament and open for a raise, and then face an all-in bet by a villain who shows J-J faceup. I am more likely to make this call based on the fact that I have already committed chips and will likely show a profit based on the pot odds I am receiving. Now let us make this same hand the first hand of a final table, with the disparity between ninth- and first-place finishes. Assuming that I have an edge at the final table, I will fold the A-K many times, because I am generally not gaining enough $ev from the play, even though it might be barely a positive cEV. The times I lose, in general, cost me more money in the long run than the amount I lose when losing the flip (the difference between ninth and, say, third).

Another good example of this topic would be if you have 12 big blinds and a stack of five big blinds pushes on you in the big blind. Generally, you would be getting more than 2-1 and should be making this call with any two cards against a normal villain, as having one live card gives you sufficient odds to call. However, now let's say that this situation happens with seven players left in a tournament, two of whom are also very short. When we look at the $ev, it now becomes a fold, as gaining the four big blinds available likely gains you little to no money long term, whereas waiting for a slightly better spot to get chips in the middle benefits you far greater in terms of $ev.

In one of my recent videos, a hand came up that illustrates this concept:
saavy_box.jpg


I held A-K late in a multitable tournament and opted to fold to a raise and a reraise preflop, because when factoring in player images and table position, I could be extremely confident that I was flipping a coin, at best. While I may happily four-bet early on in a tournament in this situation, the effect of taking this gamble in terms of $ev at the final two tables simply was not worth it. My stack was already healthy, and my chances of taking a top-three finish, while improved by a win on this hand, would not have improved enough to force a shove.

There were other factors that made folding even more clear. My under-the-gun opponent's small stack and strong open from early position made it impossible for me to profitably call the reraise, as I would very often face an all-in bet. Also, the button's stack made this very tough to play post-flop, as I was out of position. Lastly, the button was new to the table, which meant I had no reads on his style or aggressiveness.

These are obviously only some of the determining factors when deciding to call or fold. Yet, this is the general theme in how tournament decisions are made, in conjunction with pot odds, player images, and stack sizes. If nothing else, use this principle to help guide each play that you make.
spade.gif
 
I

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I would call, this early, with the blinds low, if you were to not win the hand you would still have 900 chips left which to battle back with. You have to take some risk to win.

But then I have heard, "You can't loose what you don't put in the pot"

You made what you believed to be the best decission for you at the time. Only PS and God knows what the outcome would have been had you called the Allin. Congratulations on your 2nd place finish.
 
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