This is a discussion on Views on this one? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Early - no info - it's a folder right? ...though in practice, I think some of us would choose to call/raise at least some of the |
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Views on this one? |
#1
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Views on this one?
Early - no info - it's a folder right?
...though in practice, I think some of us would choose to call/raise at least some of the time. If you decided not to fold here - explain why. Would you often call/raise in a similar situation? Would it depend and if so on what would it depend? Your mood? I'm not asking for views on cash games, short-handed tables etc, just on this particular situation. PokerStars Game #17294638829: Tournament #87654283, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/05/08 - 19:02:07 (ET) Table '87654283 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: juju1ner (1290 in chips) Seat 2: Grob_Andre (1490 in chips) Seat 3: DRoar8475 (1470 in chips) Seat 4: 7letters (1960 in chips) Seat 5: Nettech63 (1410 in chips) Seat 6: gordy74 (1220 in chips) Seat 7: inakika (1060 in chips) Seat 8: Dolfan1213 (2760 in chips) Seat 9: aejele (840 in chips) gordy74: posts small blind 10 inakika: posts big blind 20 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to 7letters [ Dolfan1213: folds aejele: calls 20 juju1ner: calls 20 Grob_Andre: folds DRoar8475: folds 7letters: raises 80 to 100 Nettech63: folds gordy74: calls 90 inakika: raises 960 to 1060 and is all-in aejele: folds juju1ner: folds 7letters: folds gordy74: folds inakika collected 340 from pot inakika: doesn't show hand *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 340 | Rake 0 Seat 1: juju1ner folded before Flop Seat 2: Grob_Andre folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: DRoar8475 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: 7letters folded before Flop Seat 5: Nettech63 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: gordy74 (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 7: inakika (big blind) collected (340) Seat 8: Dolfan1213 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: aejele folded before Flop __________________
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#2
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I call this 100% of the time without reads. This early in a SnG there are so many idiots you'll be up against a weaker ace enough to make the call very profitable IMO.
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Ffs no one cares about your bad beat! |
#3
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I'll go along with that WVHillBilly.
I asked this question elsewhere recently and got differing views - can't say I thought either view was especially wrong. The flip side of the argument was that it's an instant fold and that we should use our skill to win this game rather than rely on luck so early in the game. It's a 27 seat sng..I don't know whether the buyin should be a consideration or not. Any more views?
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#4
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Remember he could have Ax and be the one who needs to get lucky. Unless he has AA/KK you'll win half of the time he has a pair. I've never played beyond $20 SnGs but I wouldn't fold this at any level I've ever played.
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Ffs no one cares about your bad beat! |
#5
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snapcall/fistpump/ONE TIME DEALER
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#6
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Well said. Snapcall.
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#7
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For a $5 Sit and Go....I'd call in a heartbeat. If you're risking a good portion of your bankroll on this game....throw 'em away. It sucks getting drawn on by a 3 6 off suit and end up broke.
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#8
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Early no reads. Normally this is a snapcall, but if you are near you BR fine tuning point, a laydown here is not out of the question.
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#9
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I am pretty much on the same side as everyone else and I am really tight to start a game (forget I said this if you are playing against me). However, I would shove this in an instant. Maybe he has AA or KK but I would put him on a smaller pair or Ax where he has to improve to beat you. My only reservation is that if we lose this hand we are out before the seat gets warm, but if we're in it to win...I call.
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Poker after Black Friday may not be great but it is all we have.....so stop whining about it!! |
#10
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#11
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If you fold that hand in that situation, then what are you gonna call with? AA only? Because if you fold AK like this you're sure he has AA or KK, and therefore you must fold KK too because then his range is only AA, right? =)
Calling here is not luck based, you're clearly ahead of his range, which, with no reads, you have to assume consists of half the pairs and big aces. Think about it this way: if you fold this hand here, it's profitable to re-raise you everytime with any two cards, since you'll be folding everything but big pairs, which you won't get enough times to compensate...
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#12
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#13
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ARGH NO IT IS NOT |
#14
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i would fold i never risk too many of my chips early in the tournament, unless i got the nuts.
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#15
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Of COURSE it is 'luck based'. Any all-in call preflop is luck based. When someone posts about their AK loss to the 5,7soooooted, one of the most common replies is 'better luck next time'. As the all-in villain, you would have no idea what I folded. Maybe AA, maybe 3,8o, so it would not be 'profitable' to re-raise me every time, unless your strategy is to go all-in every hand. We're also talking about the diff between folding to an all-in pf and a call to a raise NOT involving an all-in pf. Money does make a difference too. If it were Chris Ferguson (or any other high stakes player) playing a $5 SnG, yea, they probably would instacall. When it's MY $5, it's an instafold.
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#16
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re: Poker & Views on this one?
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#17
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Sorry, but depending on the situation. I might not throw all of my chips in the pot while praying that I hit an A or a K and that the other player doesn't hit a set/straight/flush.
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#18
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#19
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Joe Navy,
Drawing hands are not typically defined as those hands that need to pair up. Draws are usually to straights/flushes so hands like A3s or 76 are drawing hands. Drawing hands are typically played when you can get in the pot relatively cheap with multiple way action. AK is NOT a drawing hand. AK is a hand you raise and can continue to play aggressive post flop. Even with an all under flop, you can maintain aggression and be comfortable you have overs. Certainly AK can rarely improve to a flush or straight, but you are not typically playing AK in hopes of hitting a draw.
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#20
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Perhaps I should have said. Why gamble so much with a hand that MUST improve. Before anyone gives me the argument "Play it agressively and take down the pot" Ok....in a $5 SnG....there are bound to be garbage player who play garbage hands....we all know it.
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#21
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It's not for everyone, but it works for me.
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#22
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#23
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ild gamble an call but wouldnt be that happy about it but as has already been said idiots abound and its a fairly strong hand that can improve a lot
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#24
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#25
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If it's a top heavy prize pool like first gets an entry to something I'd call, otherwise I'd fold it. The AK gets a lot of value from it's fold equity, while the guy might be pushing something like AQ or AJ giving you the best hand I'd often expect it to be something like a small pocket pair. Just not really worth the gamble this early I think.
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Oderint dum metuant |
#26
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This early in a tourney, and at this level, ppl are playing blind poker or atleast that one player was, what were the blinds 10/20, that one player risking all his chips to win so little, with AK, you really can't fold there because I mean yes it's not the best of hands, but your beating his hands I agree with Vanquish 's "Insta Call" theory and Second that motion
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#27
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With no info of the oppo I think I can fold this one.
It's only 1st level of the tourney, and my AKoff is a coinflip against every pair (47% me, vs 52% oppo) I don't want to risk the tourney in this situation, it's only the beginning and I have all the time to play better situations.
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#28
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If you enter a SnG or an MTT, best result obviously is to win it. Then of course it is to cash. After that, best result is to go out in round 1. I wouldn't advocate playing like a lunatic, but you'll probably be putting your MTT / SNG on the line with a lot worse than AK at some stage an hour down the line, so why so scared now? Easy call for me, especially if someone has taken a bit of a hit and is looking to bounce back - win and you're positioned to make a run at the win, lose and you're probably heading for an early exit, but there's always another SnG coming along in a minute. I wonder how many of the "folders" have won an MTT or a Multi table SnG, and if so how did they do it?
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#29
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I would of called that in a second pre-flop. I've seen so many people in those level tournaments push all-in with A/Q, A/J, A/10suited, ect. You probably had him crushed, and if not you were probably close to 50/50.
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#30
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Like others have implied, every hand is a drawing hand. For example, with AK vs QQ, the queens are drawing to non-Aces and Kings. It's just a psychological thing when people say they'd rather have a "made hand".
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#31
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If you want to get deep into this tournament you have to gamble in this situation.
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#32
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re: Poker & Views on this one?
Well lets not make generalisations here This is one single hand I chose to fold in one particular situation. If your assumptions about my play was as clear cut as you suggest then why would I bother posting this question? I felt I should call here but in that instance I folded. I thought I'd ask for views on the hand. As for your observations on opponent having AA/KK, I don't follow your reasoning. I've been following the thread and thanks to all those who posted here.
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#33
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#34
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why are you drawing your line at preflop? what about an all-in on the flop? you can still be outdrawn. in fact you'll often be a lesser % to win after the flop than you will preflop. i mean, if you're going to wait until you have the un-outdrawable nuts to get all-in, you're missing out on tons and tons of equity and you will absolutely never be a good player and don't say you're of the sammy farha thinking, because if he saw what you were saying he'd be like "R U SERIOUS?" don't mean to be harsh, this is just one of the most egregious things i've seen written around here in a while, especially in regard to tournaments. it's unfathomable and it's really in your best interest to either see the light and change this way of thinking or quit poker
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#36
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Ok, let's say he's shoving fairly liberally here with 22+, AKo, or AJs+ your pot equity is 45.3%, and you're paying 42.1% of the pot which seems all good on the surface, but this is a tournament, there's no reason to take such a marginal edge. When you consider your tournament odds from making this call which is likely at least a modifier of 1.2 you're a 3.1% favourite for pot odds but since this is a tournament your expected value from tournament payouts goes down 5.2%. It's a good play to call in a cash game if you think someone would make that play with that range, but it's bad for a tournament. He could of course be playing something like KQ and you have him dominated but I wouldn't put that in his range so I think it's a laydown here. If you were the one pushing and had fold equity on your side I'd definitely go for it, but not calling the all-in, you don't have to beat just him, you have to make it to the money.
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Oderint dum metuant |
#37
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AlexeiVronsky,
I don't see any real need to run the hand ranges. This is really not a mathematical question. So far I don't think any poster has denied this is a gamble, a coin flip. What if pot equity was 52%? Who cares it is still a hefty gamble. IMO, the question is more about tournament strategy. So I am interested in how you are trying to mathematically guess how it will effect making the money? If our hero loses, he still has 900 of the 1350 he started with with blinds 10/20. He is not in bad shape. If he wins he has 3020 and is able to losen up his play a bit and put pressure on the shorter stacks. The structure being 27 sng with 10 minute levels does not give our hero the luxury of waiting for many opportunities. I guess I'm wondering why you would say his overall odds are modified by 1.2 based on a single hand with less than 50% equity? If you knew for instance, that from this point on hero would be getting dealt only Q7, what would be the modification to his overall odds, 0 modification correct? And if instead you expected an equal distribution of hands, but know our hero would fold AK,AQ,22-88 to any all-in, how would that effect the odds?
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#38
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I'm not defending my play here just asking for members opinions. Bit of a delay in replying to this one, but I'll explain my thoughts at the time. It's just a fold I made during a game, we all have decisions to make, we make what we believe is the best decision and we all get that wrong at times. The general opinion here is that my fold was wrong and I'll take that on board. Yeah, I think my first instinct at the time was to call. I changed my mind. I have 1860 chips with the game at 20 BB's and I decided to fold and use that stack. Like you say, it's probably likely I'm ahead or I'm in a coin flip(rather than behind to an AA/KK) Considering he isnt playing an Ax/high cards, where I'll be favourite in a 70-30 or 60-40 race - a pocket pair of some sort was a distinct possibility and maybe I decided to make my judgement on a flip situation.. - Do I want a coin flip now? Is the question I asked myself. My choice - which I'm not saying is the right one - was that.. - I can call win a flip and have 2280 chips - I can fold and continue with 1860 chips which I'm happy with. - I can call, lose and have 900 chips, which isn't terrible but I'd be happier playing with 1860. Truth is, on stars this year I'm making a profit at cash games and losing at tourneys - my confidence on flips in tourneys is very low - if someone can hit a card on me on stars they seem to right now ...my choice was to continue patiently, make steals with a stack advantage and hopefully outplay some people along the way to obtain a win. Can't remember exactly but I think I got 2nd in this game for £36. Anyway.. appreciate the replies and I understand the reasoning.
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#39
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#40
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Yes your right it is. Addededed it up wrong. I do that all the time - no wonder
my corner shop is doing so well. Why do the Inland Revenue keep ringing me?
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#41
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Some very interesting points brought out in this thread and it's odd to see so many differing views. At the end of the day you can only lose if your in the hand and if your happy with the fold then so be it. For me it's an insta call as pre flop AK while many say is over valued, is still in the very top percentage of starting hands in terms of strength and well within my range to make the call. I know you said this was just one hand and the emphasis was that it was early in the game which implies that had it been later in the game you would have called? ( same Q goes to the others who said they would fold ). Would the same folders have folded with KK ? are you all basically saying irrespective of your hole cards you will fold to an all in pre flop early in a tournament ? Bad strategy to my way of thinking,,,,,,just my 2 cents.
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#42
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No I wouldn't fold KK. It would take a very exceptional circumstance to fold KK and I can't think of one right now.
AK, it would depend on the situation, stack sizes, blinds, opponent, so I couldn't give a straight answer there.
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#43
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Actually, I add it up to 3160 if I call and win.
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#44
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3060 is correct.
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#45
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they be like luda! i be like yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah
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#46
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I'm getting 3180 now lol
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#47
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Charting Strategy in Tournament Play
By Justin Rollo Many players seem to be caught up on the notion of when and when not to take coin flips or 60-40 situations in tournaments. While there isn't a concrete answer to this question, there are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the need to win flips to win a tournament. The only real question to ask is not one of if, but when. In the chart above, $ev is monetary estimated value, or how much in real dollars a move means to you; cEV is chip estimated value, or how much in chips you will gain from a move. As you see in the chart, as a tournament goes deeper, $ev becomes more important then cEV. When you are early in a tournament and are facing a situation in which you are likely 50-50 and have already put chips in, you are usually in a positive ev situation when calling. Therefore, based on this chart, I would likely be taking these risks early while not taking as many of them late. Taking 50-50s late creates large variance in your overall $ev, which is most important late in tournaments. Let's say that you have A-K early in a tournament and open for a raise, and then face an all-in bet by a villain who shows J-J faceup. I am more likely to make this call based on the fact that I have already committed chips and will likely show a profit based on the pot odds I am receiving. Now let us make this same hand the first hand of a final table, with the disparity between ninth- and first-place finishes. Assuming that I have an edge at the final table, I will fold the A-K many times, because I am generally not gaining enough $ev from the play, even though it might be barely a positive cEV. The times I lose, in general, cost me more money in the long run than the amount I lose when losing the flip (the difference between ninth and, say, third). Another good example of this topic would be if you have 12 big blinds and a stack of five big blinds pushes on you in the big blind. Generally, you would be getting more than 2-1 and should be making this call with any two cards against a normal villain, as having one live card gives you sufficient odds to call. However, now let's say that this situation happens with seven players left in a tournament, two of whom are also very short. When we look at the $ev, it now becomes a fold, as gaining the four big blinds available likely gains you little to no money long term, whereas waiting for a slightly better spot to get chips in the middle benefits you far greater in terms of $ev. In one of my recent videos, a hand came up that illustrates this concept: I held A-K late in a multitable tournament and opted to fold to a raise and a reraise preflop, because when factoring in player images and table position, I could be extremely confident that I was flipping a coin, at best. While I may happily four-bet early on in a tournament in this situation, the effect of taking this gamble in terms of $ev at the final two tables simply was not worth it. My stack was already healthy, and my chances of taking a top-three finish, while improved by a win on this hand, would not have improved enough to force a shove. There were other factors that made folding even more clear. My under-the-gun opponent's small stack and strong open from early position made it impossible for me to profitably call the reraise, as I would very often face an all-in bet. Also, the button's stack made this very tough to play post-flop, as I was out of position. Lastly, the button was new to the table, which meant I had no reads on his style or aggressiveness. These are obviously only some of the determining factors when deciding to call or fold. Yet, this is the general theme in how tournament decisions are made, in conjunction with pot odds, player images, and stack sizes. If nothing else, use this principle to help guide each play that you make.
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#48
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re: Poker & Views on this one?
Oh...and it's 3160
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#49
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I would call, this early, with the blinds low, if you were to not win the hand you would still have 900 chips left which to battle back with. You have to take some risk to win.
But then I have heard, "You can't loose what you don't put in the pot" You made what you believed to be the best decission for you at the time. Only PS and God knows what the outcome would have been had you called the Allin. Congratulations on your 2nd place finish.
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