Trip K facing Triple barrel / How to use equilab

[siwanat99]

pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players


(UTG): $12.22 (122 bb)
(UTG+1): $10.65 (107 bb)
(MP): $10.43 (104 bb)
(MP+1): $10.94 (109 bb)
(LP): $9.60 (96 bb)
Hero (CO): $22.78 (228 bb)
(BU): $10.00 (100 bb)
(SB): $10.45 (105 bb)
(BB): $13.71 (137 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J♥ K♥
3 players fold, (MP+1) raises to $0.30, 1 fold, (CO) calls $0.30, 2 players fold, (BB) calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) K♦ 2♥ 6♠ (3 players)
(BB) checks, (MP+1) bets $0.50, Hero (CO) calls $0.50, (BB) folds

Turn: ($1.95) K♣ (2 players)
(MP+1) bets $1, Hero (CO) calls $1

River: ($3.95) 8♦ (2 players)
(MP+1) bets $1.60, Hero (CO) calls $1.60

Total pot: $7.15 (Rake: $0.32)

Showdown:
(MP+1) shows K♠ A♣

siwanat99 (CO) mucks J♥ K♥

Villian stat : Vpip : 29 PFR : 19 AF : 2 (PFR MP : 20) CBF : 67 CBT : 44 CBR : 75

I use equilab and put his range 20% vpip against my KJs
is this call profitable in long run?

 

[fundiver199]

There are no draws and therefore no natural bluffs on this board, which is obviously bad. But that being said there are also so few hands, that beat you. The second K remove half his combos of AK/KQ, and you now beat AA. Its also very unlikely, he has a boat, other than 66 or 22. And finally he bet half pot on turn and even less on the river. So I am also not folding here, and all in all I think, you played the hand well. The only thing, I would possible consider, is to 3-bet pre instead of flatting.

 

[Aballinamion]

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players


(UTG): $12.22 (122 bb)
(UTG+1): $10.65 (107 bb)
(MP): $10.43 (104 bb)
(MP+1): $10.94 (109 bb)
(LP): $9.60 (96 bb)
Hero (CO): $22.78 (228 bb)
(BU): $10.00 (100 bb)
(SB): $10.45 (105 bb)
(BB): $13.71 (137 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J♥ K♥
3 players fold, (MP+1) raises to $0.30, 1 fold, (CO) calls $0.30, 2 players fold, (BB) calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) K♦ 2♥ 6♠ (3 players)
(BB) checks, (MP+1) bets $0.50, Hero (CO) calls $0.50, (BB) folds

Turn: ($1.95) K♣ (2 players)
(MP+1) bets $1, Hero (CO) calls $1

River: ($3.95) 8♦ (2 players)
(MP+1) bets $1.60, Hero (CO) calls $1.60

Total pot: $7.15 (Rake: $0.32)

Showdown:
(MP+1) shows K♠ A♣

siwanat99 (CO) mucks J♥ K♥

Villian stat : Vpip : 29 PFR : 19 AF : 2 (PFR MP : 20) CBF : 67 CBT : 44 CBR : 75

I use equilab and put his range 20% vpip against my KJs
is this call profitable in long run?

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Hello there siwanat99, thank you very much for posting your hand.
Now, what I found interesting here was the use of Equilab.
When you say that MP+1 has PFR 20 from MP, are you saying that it has a Raise First from MP of 20%? For how many hands?
One data that isn't relevant here is c-bet river. To have a decent statistic about c-bet river we must have played at minimum 5000 hands with Villain which I believe it is not the case.
And even for stats such as c-bet flop we need something between 300-1000 hands sample for decision making. For c-bet turn stats we need 1000-5000 hands sample. For the river 5000 is the minimum ammount we need, so forget about it.

The Preflop and the postflop

Given that this Villain is way out of line opening 20% hands from MP we should start to create a decent 3-bet light range in position (if it folds a lot to 3-bet). IMO KJs is the best candidate to be 3-betting light versus UTG, because it blocks significant combinations Villain could have been raising with such as KK, JJ, AK, AJ, KJ, etc.
Your decision line was correct though. Because this Villain raises too much, KJ can be a damn good bluff catcher and then when you hit your equity you will let Villain betting flop/turn all day long.
Unfortunately for us, we were coolered, but it is what it is, you played the hand fine. Good that you decided not to raise flop/turn or river just because Villain has 20% Opening Range from UTG, you kept your range protected for the times Villains elect to keep barreling 3 streets of value.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[siwanat99]

I played with him only 438 Hands
I'll try it I never 3-Bet KJs is that for value or 3-Bet light he fold to 3-Bet 60
Can u guys explain me more about 3-Bet hands like this ? Should I 3-Bet KQs QJs AJs ATs and I saw blackrain79 suggest 3-Bet AJo KJo QJo versus LP raise but I don't get it . is that for bluff right ?
I only 3-Bet light hands like suited connector / suited ace

 

[fundiver199]

Its kind of a semibluff just like suited aces. Hands like KQs and KJs does have some decent removal, because they block AK and some big pairs. I would mainly do this against someone, who open wide, and who fold to 3-bets a reasonable amount of the time.

 

[Alucard]

putting a 20% vpip range hardly matters here because it isn't like he's gonna triple with 7s or 8s
you should range him according to the board & what makes sense tripling both value & bluffs.

 

[Aballinamion]

I played with him only 438 Hands
I'll try it I never 3-Bet KJs is that for value or 3-Bet light he fold to 3-Bet 60
Can u guys explain me more about 3-Bet hands like this ? Should I 3-Bet KQs QJs AJs ATs and I saw blackrain79 suggest 3-Bet AJo KJo QJo versus LP raise but I don't get it . is that for bluff right ?
I only 3-Bet light hands like suited connector / suited ace

438 hands is a good sample to observe 3-bet preflop. The sample for 3-bet preflop good is 500 hands but optimal is from 1000 to 2000 hands.
In this case I believe that KJs is a 3-bet light because in spite of MP+1 to have 20% RF, most of times our KJ will be dominated by EP's range.
Given that Villain opens 20% and folds 60% to 3-bet I believe KJs it is a 3-bet for value against this range.
When we get called we have position and initiative.
Versus a regular I am folding this KJs on the middle of the table, because calling sucks, 3-betting sucks and I will be dominated by better kings almost always.
Versus your Villain/MP+1, I am more inclined to 3-bet.
IMO, some hands do not play very good by calling versus EP, even when we have position:
AQ, AJ, AT, A9, etc, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, etc, QJ, QT, Q9, etc, so I would go for a more straightforward approach by either 3-betting and folding to 4-bet or folding when I am not in the BTN, and when I am in the BTN and there are no recreational in the blinds, I see no reason to be fancy too.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Sintubai]

I think this hand is profitable in the long run! You played well, and the villain knew how to make a good move, and he might even have forced a bigger call from you! it was a hand that happens with some frequency at the tables and we can get involved without regrets.. GL!

 

[kingofnaps]

He isn't tripling a bluff there, fold. dont need equity calcs.

 

[Aballinamion]

How to use Equilab

PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.05/$0.10 - 9 players


(UTG): $12.22 (122 bb)
(UTG+1): $10.65 (107 bb)
(MP): $10.43 (104 bb)
(MP+1): $10.94 (109 bb)
(LP): $9.60 (96 bb)
Hero (CO): $22.78 (228 bb)
(BU): $10.00 (100 bb)
(SB): $10.45 (105 bb)
(BB): $13.71 (137 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J♥ K♥
3 players fold, (MP+1) raises to $0.30, 1 fold, (CO) calls $0.30, 2 players fold, (BB) calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) K♦ 2♥ 6♠ (3 players)
(BB) checks, (MP+1) bets $0.50, Hero (CO) calls $0.50, (BB) folds

Turn: ($1.95) K♣ (2 players)
(MP+1) bets $1, Hero (CO) calls $1

River: ($3.95) 8♦ (2 players)
(MP+1) bets $1.60, Hero (CO) calls $1.60

Total pot: $7.15 (Rake: $0.32)

Showdown:
(MP+1) shows K♠ A♣

siwanat99 (CO) mucks J♥ K♥

Villian stat : Vpip : 29 PFR : 19 AF : 2 (PFR MP : 20) CBF : 67 CBT : 44 CBR : 75

I use equilab and put his range 20% vpip against my KJs
is this call profitable in long run?

View attachment 266610

View attachment 266611

How to use Equilab​

Well, today we are going to make a more deep analysis on how to use the range calculator.
We assume that MP is opening 20% range OOP, which means:

22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (20.36%)

Considering this flop: K♦ 2♥ 6♠, and the fact that there are 3 players involved in the hand, we believe that MP would not be c-betting 20% range here, a 100% of times versus 2 players yet to speak.
There are no flush draws and we don't expect in a high frequency small combinations of straights on MP's range right now such as 43, 54, for example.
So, without further duo, which part of MP's range is betting for value and which part of MP's range is betting for bluff.

The Values.​

KK, 22, 66 and AA are the only hands that could be c-betting "safely" here. Other hands are AK, AA, QQ, JJ, TT, etc. We are not very safe betting these hands when it comes a King on the flop and most of players are not comfortable as well.

From 20% range that MP opens which part is checking this flop?
We see that almost 15% of that range is checking this flop:
almost all the pocket pairs are not safe betting for value here such as QQ-77, 55-33, our aces have only back doors versus two players yet to speak AQs-A2s, our medium kings we are also not happy on betting this flop KJs-KTs, and the same goes for our Qx and Jx, such as QTs+, JTs, AQo-ATo, QTo+, JTo. (considering we are on MP's shoes right now).

When MP c-bet this flop, there is only 5% hands that feel safe here, so we must be looking for 5% of bluffs, although we know that at the micros/mid stakes players are not balancing their ranges so good.
I confess that it is hard for me to find bluffs on its 20% range that could be c-betting here, mostly are BDF+BDS with two overcards, besides that MP has no bluffs.
So let's assume the overall range that bets for value and for bluff on this flop:

For value we have on MP's range: KK+, 66, 22, AKs, AKo, 3% of hands

For Bluff we have on MP's range: QQ-JJ, AQs-AJs, AQo-AJo, and although QQ and JJ are not bluffs because they have showdown value, a weak player is likely to be c-betting QQ and JJ, thus, turning a value hand into a bluff, because it is real hard to find decent bluffs on MP's range. QQ and JJ would be bluffs here because there are great chance of us being paid by Kings.
Now we have 3% values and 3% bluffs, which means that already on the flop, MP's range is reduced from 20% range to 6% range.
The total range is: JJ+, 66, 22, AJs+, AJo+, 6% give or take. (Value+Bluffs)

Now we know that MP is betting its flop (worst case ever) with 6% range including bluffs and values.

The Turn is a King of Clubs and MP elects to c-bet again. And now, by logic, QQ, JJ should be checking here, even AA could be checking here because the board is very dry and very easy to Hero/CO to fold a bunch of pocket pairs and whiffed draws.
So, let's remove some combos that MP could be bluffing turn:
Now we believe the only decent bluff MP can have is AA, which it decided to turn into a bluff because now that it double pairs Kings on the turn, CO has all the Kings combinations and MP has none (when MP has AA)
Now on the Turn, MP's range has only 3% hands, because we believe now that this player has no bluffs out of position to justify its c-bet of 1/2 pot and his range contains only:

KK+, 66, 22, AKs, AKo, 3% of hands.

The 8 of diamonds doesn't change anything on MP's range and it will continue to value bet its AK's, Pockets 2's and 6's and KK we know Villain can never have given that we have trips.
So Villain doesn't have KK and AA could also be checking a fair chunk of times this river to evaluate CO's action, the range that continues betting on this river is only 2% of hands, which means AK, 22 and 66 only.
Given that this Villain will never bet this river with bluffs, we never have the proper odds to be calling here, no matter sizing.

PS: I could include KQ on Villain's range but it doesn't make much difference because we are losing for KQ as well.


Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[Aballinamion]

I forgot to mention that because we are holding KJ, we are blocking most significant combinations of Kx that could be betting river, so MP/Villain will have 1% bluffs on its river if it has that much and 1% value range.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa