My theory got tested

A

abbershey

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I was playing cash yesterday and had a 3/5 the person to my left raised the max at the limit table. It was called by several , i saw many players in and figured they all were probly had big cards so i thought chances of the flop having small cards where greatly increased. I called and that is exactly what happened. It was awesome and really left people cussing at me. I already had 2 bucks in and if i chance 10 more i can pay off big if i hit and if the flop does not hit its only 10 , big pay out for small risk.
 
Mikeisanace777

Mikeisanace777

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It's called flop variation.

Overall there will be low flops and high flops in a cyclical fashion usually not exceeding what I call the rule of ''3" in a row



This means flops like 4-9-3-a-k I consider this a low flop if you get three or 4 of these in a row it's now like 80% sure the next flop will be what I consider high such as q-2-10-k-5 Three cards above nine as the median as high. This literally has no meaning in Nl holdem and much more in limit where you often see all streets.


Even then speculation based on Variation can flow to like 70/30 in favor of low or high and maybe connecting. Say you have 6-8 offsuit in the blinds so gamble it up perhaps? It's still poker though and even if you speculate low in the favor of the flop or total a hand like QQ plays big because it could roll as a total like Q-76-A-6 Full house low flop maybe the flush hit no matter.


As you said though lots of players with qk-aj-10-j and ak to ace weak in the mix vs 56 off suit can be a killer from negated outs,live cards and variables. Remember though it's still poker and beware of a wild hare to play these little cards like 5-7 off suit or suited in NL you may get sucked into a flopped flush that goes runner equaling river counterfeit. Just like 2 pairs on the flop 5-7-k-4-4 vs a loose passive player calling your mid-size bets with K-J to the river losing you 40-50% of you buy in.
 
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abbershey

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thanks for the info... i know it can go wrong I was happy to hit it. Funny thing after i hot that win i was golden i just kept winning for about 6 hands after people were getting mad.
 
bkniefel

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Those are the best ones to nail. Especially when they hit one of their high cards and you hit two pair and let's say turn a full house.

I've done that exact move and hit works every time. Especially when the limits are high and you take the risk of calling after everyone has called and you just pray that you nail the flop. I would say suited connectors in those positions work out more than AK in early position does!
 
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Cenanin

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My style is I'll call with low cards only if the previous few boards were high cards and vice versa.

You'll start to see patterns at any given table if you sit there awhile.
 
vinnie

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Overall there will be low flops and high flops in a cyclical fashion usually not exceeding what I call the rule of ''3" in a row



This means flops like 4-9-3-a-k I consider this a low flop if you get three or 4 of these in a row it's now like 80% sure the next flop will be what I consider high such as q-2-10-k-5 Three cards above nine as the median as high. This literally has no meaning in Nl holdem and much more in limit where you often see all streets.

The cards have no memory or knowledge of the previous flops. The odds of a flop with low cards or high cards is completely unrelated to the type of flop (or flops) immediately preceding them.

Your mind is trying to find patterns where there are none. Don't let these misconceptions take hold. It will make you a much worse player.
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

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That is the joy of the game any 2 cards can win from certain positions good luck
 
Jblocher1

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Overall there will be low flops and high flops in a cyclical fashion usually not exceeding what I call the rule of ''3" in a row



This means flops like 4-9-3-a-k I consider this a low flop if you get three or 4 of these in a row it's now like 80% sure the next flop will be what I consider high such as q-2-10-k-5 Three cards above nine as the median as high. This literally has no meaning in Nl holdem and much more in limit where you often see all streets.


Even then speculation based on Variation can flow to like 70/30 in favor of low or high and maybe connecting. Say you have 6-8 offsuit in the blinds so gamble it up perhaps? It's still poker though and even if you speculate low in the favor of the flop or total a hand like QQ plays big because it could roll as a total like Q-76-A-6 Full house low flop maybe the flush hit no matter.


As you said though lots of players with qk-aj-10-j and ak to ace weak in the mix vs 56 off suit can be a killer from negated outs,live cards and variables. Remember though it's still poker and beware of a wild hare to play these little cards like 5-7 off suit or suited in NL you may get sucked into a flopped flush that goes runner equaling river counterfeit. Just like 2 pairs on the flop 5-7-k-4-4 vs a loose passive player calling your mid-size bets with K-J to the river losing you 40-50% of you buy in.



Each flop is independent probability and the deck is reshuffled every hand so don't be silly about stuff like this there's no way to predict flop texture
 
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SeriousBizzness

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I was playing cash yesterday and had a 3/5 the person to my left raised the max at the limit table. It was called by several , i saw many players in and figured they all were probly had big cards so i thought chances of the flop having small cards where greatly increased. I called and that is exactly what happened. It was awesome and really left people cussing at me. I already had 2 bucks in and if i chance 10 more i can pay off big if i hit and if the flop does not hit its only 10 , big pay out for small risk.
ive tried that method before and people cant stand it when i do it. but im a player that likes to play a lot of hands anyway. they say that i dont know how to play or that i should have folded. but how would anyone ever get a low straight flush if you dont play a low hand every once in a while? know what i mean
 
monstr999999

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you played well ...)) and the position helped you ...
but I advise cautiously to play according to your theory ...
it will have jumps up and down ..
do not hit yourself hard ..)))
:angel:
 
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braveslice

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Having low board coverage against high range is valid strategical tool in poker and widely used for example when choosing bluff 3bet hands or raising range on the flop.

Having low coverage is not dominant tool though, meaning it’s only used as a backup giving you some extra EQ. This is not something you desire to drive your game to because small pair is worse than big pair, and low straight is worse than high straight etc. In the long run this strategy is losing one if it’s the only idea behind the play.

Not that it’s matter in this topic, but maybe someone with interest of learning the game is reading this too.

Overall there will be low flops and high flops in a cyclical fashion usually not exceeding what I call the rule of ''3" in a row
You use lot of energy to make theories but are too lazy to actually test your theories. I don’t like that at all. If you would be honestly interested about math behind poker you would a) read a book (any book really), but Bill Chen's "The Mathematics of Poker is the king warning though that book takes about a year to understand and learn b) would learn to use any math program that can do random values I suggest for example https://www.gnu.org/software/octave/

The quoted part of your claim for exmple could be tested in one to 3 hours in octave.
 
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