That is basically trying to determine the mathematically correct BR size based on win-rate and SD we will call that figure X
Which I can completely accept and from that you get an estimate of how many buyins required to play your style.
What I cant see a shred of evidence for is that if you temperarily move up to a higher level where you winrate is unknown although estimated to be comparable yet less than your current winrate and your SD again is unknown although estimated to be higher as the general caliber of players are expected to be better is that somehow you come up with a number of buyins less than X.
That bit seems to elude me.
If people want to reduce or increase their number of required buyins in accordance with the data shown in that thread then that makes sense, but I still cannot see how a temporary shot at a higher stake could be done with fewer buyins than required at your current stake and I dont think that the author of that thread is making that claim.
Perhaps I am wrong.
Perhaps you could explain it in your own words.
Ya ok.
You have to realise that a good player will take a "shot", when the known winrate will be higher than the norm, not lower.
A decent example would be a fish that I'm stacking at nl$50 decides to move up to nl$200 to chase down his winnings, generally I will have an edge much greater for a decent amount of time even against the reg's at that level, at least until they adjust. This would also be taking into account the risk of ruin at that level. Remember a good player just won't take mindless shots, because well, thats mindless and not a sign of a decent player.
Lets take yourself Stu, I not 100% of what limits your playing atm, but from memory its nl$10. Lets say a total maniac sits on your table and shoves every hand until he loses 10 buyins. Then he go's and sits at a nl$25 table, do you follow ? Because if your risk of ruin at nl$25 is acceptably low, then thats a very acceptable shot.
Edit : A "shot", should never be a mindless foray into a limit that your underollerd for. If the game is good, and your edge is significant then imo, its acceptable. Sitting into a random higher table is a massive mistake, and one that you will likely spend a while recovering from. Also when your moving up, you should be taking shots on a very regular basis, moving directly from nl$50 to nl$100 is also a mistake, that move should be done in stages, usually in gradually increasing shot taking.