Sunday Millions ITM strategy.

[dj11]

I just watched one of our members play well enough to get into the money in the big tourney, and once this happens a peculiar situation arises. I have noticed this before.

Todays they paid 900 players, as 180 players leave, the payoff goes up $120. (approx). Another 180, up the bucks another $120, for several levels.

Play before the bubble is tight, but loosens up fast after the bubble. The peculiarity is that since play loosens up so much, so fast, the next payoff level is reached in about 3 hands. Making each hand worth on average $40. And all you need do is fold, and take a while to do it.

Our player got through that first payoff level, into the next, and rather than wait for something commanding, played what I thought was less than premium, and got busted out for that effort.

He got into the money, played well and all congrats to him. But this isn't about him as much as how to maximize payoff in that situation. I think in that case you need to think about finishing money as much about the chance to do extra special well. I would not have played the cards he played in the situation he was in. I would have waited. He could have folded his way out and jumped at least 5 levels.

What do you think?

 

[Flops'm&Bets'm]

If you are referring to the guy that 'just' busted out with the
pkt. A's and finished in 822 place...I agree with you 100% and if I may add to the equation you put out there...in the stats tab on Pokerstars I have realized that in say a 5000 to 8000 player MTT the # of hands needed to make the final 4 tables is around 25-35 pots won (excluding split pots) and the other variable is of COURSE the size of the pots won...indeed!!
But the real problem and Habit lies with playing tight pre-bubble and the style carries over..or the deck goes cold. In that case poor Hole cards is a blessing in disguise..and a Great hand with position is a God Send..Catching a great Flop with a Premium Hand and playing it correctly is the key factor..
ie. pricing the players in enough and keeping the FISH out or Lowering the Boom at the right time to get a pot commitment from a flush draw or the nut flush over a barrel with the Boat!!

Anyhow, great post and a good tip for MTT players - INDEED!!

 

[OzExorcist]

I'll start by saying I've never played a Sunday Million or anything else this size - so take this how you will. But as a strategy problem, I think there's two factors that affect your decision making during this phase of a tournament:

1 - The size of your stack
2 - Your goal for the tournament (which may have been revised along the way)

If you've got a decent sized stack (around average, or better) and your goal is just to make the money and have a decent pay day, the strategy you've described isn't a bad one. You can fold everything but the premium hands, have others bust out around you, and watch your payout go up. You don't have to play extra aggressive or take any chances, because you've reached your goal, and anything extra is just gravy.

If you've got a decent sized stack and your goal is to win, however, you need to stay relatively active. If there's players shoving and busting out, somebody has to be taking their chips. If you're not taking some of them, you can be sure that the people who'll eventually make the final table are - you can't afford to fall too far behind. Some selective aggression is called for here, you need to remain active. Remember that people are shoving with all sorts of hands at this stage, so you don't necessarily need AA to be calling some of the shoves. All you need to do is stay out of the way of the big stacks.

It's the short stacks that characterise this phase of the tournament though, and there's two types: those whose only goal was to limp through the bubble and into the money, and those who still think they've got a shot at the final table or even the win.

If just cashing is the goal, it'd be perfectly reasonable to just sit out and hope people bust out fast enough to move you up the money list. It'd also be perfectly reasonable to shove all in at the first decent opportunity, in the hopes of doubling up and moving a couple more notches up the payout scale.

If the final table or a win is the goal... again, the move is still probably shove all in at the first decent opportunity - but a player with this motivation won't be shoving as conservatively as the one who just wants to quietly move up the payout ladder.

So... what was my point? I think it was:

Yes, tightening up as soon as the bubble bursts is probably a reliable way to get bumped up the payout ladder. But the kamikaze all-in moves will cease at some point, and you don't want to be left behind as the dust settles if your goal is to go deep and reach the final table. Staying active during the kamikaze period might just stop you being left behind. And if a move doesn't work out? You've got your cash as a consolation prize, I guess.

 

[Flops'm&Bets'm]

Perfect Alalysis

~Bravo OzExorcist..
I love the way you put thing into perspective!
I have not played in the Sunday Million,
But I have played in the Sunday Hundred Grand
and the difference being
the Hundred Grand has Max.20,000 players and 10 min Levels and starting stack of 3,000 chips.
Where as the Sunday Million has usually 6,000 to 7,500 and 15 min. Levels and 10,000 starting stack.

Though, as you put it Bubble 'floating' is usually where I'm at in those, as the Big Stacks tend to exploit the 'fact'. And since I play Tight most of the time
I have to have some 'nice' cards to make any sort of call or raise.
And position of course. Yet, I can make the Lay-Down if my flop missed.
I can often make Top 100/10,000 in the freerolls.
But when real $ is on the line it tends to be more conservative.
Before the Bubble even happens. Then I get left in the dust by the Agressive Players as I seldom have a stack that commands some respect.

Hence why I am here noodling around, gaining some wisdom, and perhaps getting my bankroll to where I can play in the Big $ Tourneys.

~A Tid-bit off the cuff..I started out playing the free-play ring games NL Hold'em 5/10 and there were a group of us 'gang' that played the same table every day and a few of them there told me I have a "Good Game" and many other asked me if I Play in $ Tournaments...and that if not that I should.
One player used to play me all the time and tell me I should play $ Tourneys
and "Stick to my Game"...but when I do the result is ITM but just..as in 2-5 levels up the pay scale..so there is that!
I have been playing the Freerolls and free-play 45ppl S&G's and I do well in them.
Making final Tables at 10,000ppl NL Holdem and NL and FL Omaha Hi.
So my game is good just not in the $ yet.

~I realize that there is a HUGE difference in Freerolls and $ Tourneys and the Risk Factors~ yet my results are remarkably seperate. I don't believe it is nerves, just the calibre of Players I believe!~
apology for the babble~LOL:joyman: ~ Thanks Oz..I added you as Buddy List~

 

[Flops'm&Bets'm]

**Note I play the micro and Low level tournaments right now**
(as the bankroll doesn't permit me to play in Med. to High) YET!!

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

What do you think?

I think we need a hand history. :/

 

[Goldog]

What was his hand, chip position etc...

When play nears the bubble and just beyond there is a dichotomy between passive "survivers" and agrressive "stack builders". Ideally you'd like to have a big stack at this point and continue building. A small/ medium stack would like to survive to at least get ITM. Once the money bubble has past, those smallish stacks have to get chips to reach the serious money at the final table.

Once you're ITM moving a few more steps doesn't make a lot of difference. I'm looking to get a real stack not just a few more bucks.

goldog

 

[hunterT1000]

It seems that alot of players only goal is to cash. Ive seen this myself on the micro-low level tourneys. As soon as the bubble bursts the rate of players going bust increases ten fold. Where-as on the bubble 99% of players are playing uber-tight. For this reason I like to (stack permitting) bully the table on the bubble and then tighten up once itm.

It seems quite strange that anyone would make the effort to get that far just to go crazy and bust out with the lowest payout. But as Oz says (backed up by slansky ) If your main goal is to make the final table, or even to win, now is the time to gamble.

At this point in a tourney (especially large tourneys like the sunday mil) sitting back, or even sitting out can be a very profitable strategy.



Great thread

 

[jeffred1111]

Wasn't the hand something along the lines of AJs against a lower pp (7s????) and the CC member lost with A high?

DISCLAIMER: I DON'T PLAY DONKAMENTS AND ONLY STICK TO DONK N' GO PLAY, OPINION MIGHT BE STUPID.

But in a situation extreme as the one enunciated (you gain 40$+ by folding nothing but premiums for a few minutes on a FR table), I wouldn't want to risk my tournament life and a chance at a higher payoff NOW by taking coinflips or near coinflips. QQ still gets pushed most of the time, and AA KK everytime, but JJ and down seem to be suspicious since we're coinflipping a lot more. I would also only play AK and AKs. Once the bloodbath has steadied, our stack shouldn't have dwindled down too much and we are more likely to e able to steal after folding our blinds to raises many times. This would be the time for me to 3-bet
AQs, AJs preflop.

 

[OzExorcist]

Once the bloodbath has steadied, our stack shouldn't have dwindled down too much and we are more likely to e able to steal after folding our blinds to raises many times. This would be the time for me to 3-bet AQs, AJs preflop.

This is true, if we've made it through with with a decent size stack and decide we just want to wait out the bloodbath, we shouldn't have dwindled too much by the time we reach the other side.

The point I was making though was that, during said bloodbath, chips are flying left right and centre, and someone is picking them up as the players bust out. Your stack might not have dwindled much in real terms when 'proper' play resumes, but you can bet that you'll have dwindled in relative terms to the stacks that have been putting the loose shovers out.

It's far from a hopeless situation, but you'll probably find yourself at a bigger disadvantage than you did before - or if you were one of the chip leaders, you could find that your competition has gotten a little bit more competitive.

 

[Wacky_Man]

in the sunday millions, the only time that you should look at the payment table is near the bubble. besides that you should play your game normally so you can be able to enter the big money prize. i've already played about 15 times in sunday millions, and busted out before enter the money about 10 times. But there were 2 times i went to the top 40 and top 20 and the money was pretty good. it depends a lot of the cards in your hand

 

[vanquish]

it depends a lot of the cards in your hand

Most true statement ever.

 

[dj11]

I think we need a hand history. :/

Not about any particular hand, but it is about a strategy to make money.

I think once in the money in these tigger tournies, and knowing that in 3 hands the payouts will jump, it is worthwhile being a ROCK, AA, KK, maybe QQ pf only. EVEN IF SHORTSTACKED!

The cards will dictate here. Especially if you are shortstacked. If the cards come, you will do good, if not, and you try to force something to happen you tend to bust out before you would if you are passive and let the blinds eat you. Every player at the table, once ITM, has some talent and savvy, and will know your M is low, and you are in a must hit situation. You will fool no one but yourself.

Imagine your M is 3, (you can make 3 orbits at the present blinds/ante level). In 3 orbits, at this stage of these tourney's, can see 25 hands (approx) which works out to approx 8 possible payout bumps. This is significant pocket change. In those 25 hands, you get 25 more chances to see monsters, and even as your stack reduction gets critical, your call equity goes up (for this discussion, call equity is the chance you will get called when you do shove, which will be exactly what you want).

Of course, if you are in your last possible orbit, you have to shove something. But having stretched it this far with nothing, you may have made yourself $1000. Or more!

This concept ties in with the AA near the bubble threads, where it can be argued that folding AA can be a +EV move. It gets tricky, especially right after the bubble bursts, when what I see normally happens is that all of those players who have shown restraint, suddenly blow up.

 

[Egon Towst]

Imagine your M is 3, (you can make 3 orbits at the present blinds/ante level). In 3 orbits, at this stage of these tourney's, can see 25 hands (approx) which works out to approx 8 possible payout bumps. This is significant pocket change. In those 25 hands, you get 25 more chances to see monsters, and even as your stack reduction gets critical, your call equity goes up (for this discussion, call equity is the chance you will get called when you do shove, which will be exactly what you want).

Dubious about this DJ.

Some of you will know, I`ve been known to go deep in the odd tourney myself. In the late stages, success is hugely about reading the table and playing the situation as much as the cards. General plans are not a great deal of use, since a plan that works on Monday may be no use at all on Tuesday.

However, the one more or less fixed method I do stick with is never to let my stack get so low that I will suck in multiple callers when I finally make a move. Pretty much everyone is smart enough to call with anything reasonable and check it down in that scenario. If you get four or five opponents doing that to you, you`re almost certainly history, even if you have been lucky enough to catch pocket AAs.

 

[OzExorcist]

I think once in the money in these tigger tournies, and knowing that in 3 hands the payouts will jump, it is worthwhile being a ROCK, AA, KK, maybe QQ pf only. EVEN IF SHORTSTACKED!

That's OK, but you're talking about a "just looking to cash" strategy. Keep in mind that not everybody's playing for the same goal, and different strategies will apply for them.