
Dorkus Malorkus
HELLO INTERNET
I'm making a separate thread for this so I can make a poll. Keep discussing the hand (if you must
) in that thread, this thread is just intended as a 'fun' little aside.
Scenario A
A man walks up to you, says he's feeling very generous today, and offers you a choice of two one-time only deals.
1) He gives you $1m, no questions asked, there and then.
2) He offers you the chance to flip a coin. If it comes up heads, he will give you $3m there and then, if it comes up tails, you get nothing.
You know this man is honest and the coin is completely unbiased (it's a hypothetical question, let's not go down that route). Do you take option 1 or 2?
Scenario B
A man walks up to you, says he's feeling very generous today, and offers you a choice of two one-time only deals.
1) He gives you $3m, no questions asked, there and then.
2) He offers you the chance to flip a coin. If it comes up heads, he will give you $2m there and then, if it comes up tails he will give you $5m.
Again, you know this man is honest and the coin is completely unbiased. Do you take option 1 or 2? Should we be more inclined to take option 1 or 2 than we are in Scenario A, and if so why? What's the practical 'difference' between the scenarios (note that in both scenarios the $EV difference between options 1 and 2 is exactly the same - $500k)?
Scenario A
A man walks up to you, says he's feeling very generous today, and offers you a choice of two one-time only deals.
1) He gives you $1m, no questions asked, there and then.
2) He offers you the chance to flip a coin. If it comes up heads, he will give you $3m there and then, if it comes up tails, you get nothing.
You know this man is honest and the coin is completely unbiased (it's a hypothetical question, let's not go down that route). Do you take option 1 or 2?
Scenario B
A man walks up to you, says he's feeling very generous today, and offers you a choice of two one-time only deals.
1) He gives you $3m, no questions asked, there and then.
2) He offers you the chance to flip a coin. If it comes up heads, he will give you $2m there and then, if it comes up tails he will give you $5m.
Again, you know this man is honest and the coin is completely unbiased. Do you take option 1 or 2? Should we be more inclined to take option 1 or 2 than we are in Scenario A, and if so why? What's the practical 'difference' between the scenarios (note that in both scenarios the $EV difference between options 1 and 2 is exactly the same - $500k)?