Sample size / moving up

[cr0wn]

Hi guys,

A general question here.

What is considered a good sample size in terms of hands played, to determine if you are a winning player at the stakes you are playing?

Also should you consider moving up in stakes, only if you see that you are a winning player after let's say 30k hands minimum?

I believe I know that 30k hands is the bare minimum in which you can determine if you are a winning player in these stakes, and I would appreciate more information in regards to the matter.

Thanks

 

[kostja007]

Do you mean NL shorthanded? In PLO 30k is not a sample. At least 100k for PLO I would say. The variance in plo is so high. Also I think 50k at least at NL shorthanded. Better would be 100k for a good sample. Also it depends how do you feel. Are you moneyscared to move? If you are you beating the stake with 1bb/100 you should analyze your hands and improve the bb/100 winrate.

 

[cr0wn]

Do you mean NL shorthanded? In PLO 30k is not a sample. At least 100k for PLO I would say. The variance in plo is so high. Also I think 50k at least at NL shorthanded. Better would be 100k for a good sample. Also it depends how do you feel. Are you moneyscared to move? If you are you beating the stake with 1bb/100 you should analyze your hands and improve the bb/100 winrate.

Yeah exactly, I play 6max NL at low stakes )2NL) and I average 44BB/100hands, however sample size is quite low only 5k hands in, so I figure I am just on an upswing. I just want to have a clear guideline of when I can move up. I assume that if you have built a bankroll that allows it you can also take a shot.

 

[fundiver199]

There is no reason to spend a lot of time at 2NL just to prove, you are a winning player within the 99% confidence interval or whatever. 5NL is still very low stakes, and if you lose, just move back down again. Same with moving from 5NL to 10NL. Just set up some bankroll management rules and follow them.

 

[GregoryStellar]

I also try to establish good bankroll management! I consider this the basis of a successful game!

 

[Station_Master]

It depends how high your win rate is as well, the higher it is the fewer hands you need. Based on your win rate so far I think 10k hands would be enough. You could always move back down if you find 5NL too hard.

In general whilst you wont know your exact winrate after 10k hands, you should have a pretty good idea I think. Although variance also goes up as you move up the stakes