Quick hand quiz: What's the correct move?

[F Paulsson]

equity(%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.8650 % 32.84% 00.02% { JdJs }
Hand 2: 16.1377 % 16.11% 00.02% { 7c7h }
Hand 3: 16.7794 % 16.41% 00.37% { QhTc }
Hand 4: 14.6336 % 14.61% 00.02% { 9d8d }
Hand 5: 19.5843 % 19.21% 00.37% { AsTd }

I think it's pretty clear you need to cap it preflop. Solid poker is based on getting as much money in as possible while you have the best hand.

Also, if you know what everybody else has, it makes your postflop decisions far easier.

I think most of who will vote would have done so by now, so here's what I wanted to say:

Chris has got it precisely right, and even (which I was hoping someone would) used the odds Calculator to see why. We know precisely where we stand, here, and we know that our hand is 33% to win at this point, but we have four opponents. Put in other words, since we will win this pot 33% of the time, you could say that 33% of THIS pot's money belongs to us. What happens if we raise?

... we get another 5 dollars in the pot.

... Another 5 dollars that we "own" 33% of.

... 33% of $5 is $1.7.

... In other words, we're getting a 70% return on our investment. That's awesome.

This is the basic idea of "equity". We want to push as much money as we can into this pot right now, because every cent that goes in means more profit for us. The point where it breaks even, of course, is at 20% - so the guy with A-10 is close.

In other words, the only reason that we would ever consider doing anything but raising here is if we believe that we could somehow win something on disguising our hands. However, I don't believe this to be a good enough reason, because we have such a strong lead here that we want to make the maximum of it right now.

Now, as for calling and "safing" (checking that there are no queens or aces on the flop before continuing), there's a problem with that: Don't you suppose the other hands are also safing? If this is a good flop for you, it's often a bad flop for them. Woo, you hit a safe flop and bet! ... aaand they fold. You raise now, because now is when they're likely to pay you off. When people talk about aggressive poker players, this is what they mean: Pushing your edges. You have an edge - backing down and not taking advantage of it is passive, and it's costing you money.


And never - ever - fold.

 

[robwhufc]

And just to clarify for the 4 "folds", yes you are more likely to lose this hand than win it, but long term winning a third of these big pots is going to leave you well ahead.

 

[F Paulsson]

And just to clarify for the 4 "folds", yes you are more likely to lose this hand than win it, but long term winning a third of these big pots is going to leave you well ahead.

Precisely.

 

[t1riel]

I wonder whether Poker is really the game for you if you think this! Although there is every possibility that you could lose this hand, the potential rewards far outweigh the risks. If you play 10 hands like this you will make a significant profit. Pot odds are what poker is all about, and need to be understood if you are ging to make poker pay.

Now that I have re-read this post. I have changed my mind. Yes, there are starting hands that could beat pocket Jacks depending on the flop. But if I make a large raise, some players will probably fold giving me better odds to win. I must have been tired when I first read this or wasn't thinking. So, I change my vote to raise and a big raise at that.

 

[Osmann]

Now that I have re-read this post. I have changed my mind. Yes, there are starting hands that could beat pocket Jacks depending on the flop. But if I make a large raise, some players will probably fold giving me better odds to win. I must have been tired when I first read this or wasn't thinking. So, I change my vote to raise and a big raise at that.

It's a limit game, so you can't make a big raise. Besides you know from the predetermined rules that they are going to call if you raise.

 

[twizzybop]

*Smacks* self with spooon.. *smacks again*.. lol.. for purpose of me being________(insert whatever word you want here). or words if you prefer.

Call or raise here cause it won't matter what comes for the flop you will know exactly where you stand from there. Unless of course for sceintifically purposes the god allmighty lets you also see the cards in the deck that is coming for the flop.

 

[dinosdynasty]

Since everyone else is breaking the rule, I voted to raise with the best hand, if an A hits and you lead out then the other players have to at least think that you could have A/A or A/K.

 

[dinosdynasty]

Oops, didn't see the 2nd page until after I posted, rookie mistake.

 

[mjr_jojo]

I would call. Now we have to see what is correct?

 

[mjr_jojo]

I also did not see the second page!

 

[~~Shelynn~~]

I'm with Sammy on this one, like him can't wait to hear the ending.

 

[Stick66]

Honest question & forgive me for sounding negative: If we have a 33% chance of winning, that means we have a 67% chance of losing. Please explain to me why it's a good idea to risk MORE money by raising on odds that are 2-1 against us.

(My vote was to call, because of the multi-way pot.)

 

[robwhufc]

Honest question & forgive me for sounding negative: If we have a 33% chance of winning, that means we have a 67% chance of losing. Please explain to me why it's a good idea to risk MORE money by raising on odds that are 2-1 against us.

(My vote was to call, because of the multi-way pot.)

Because you are getting 4-1 on a 2-1 chance.

 

[F Paulsson]

Honest question & forgive me for sounding negative: If we have a 33% chance of winning, that means we have a 67% chance of losing. Please explain to me why it's a good idea to risk MORE money by raising on odds that are 2-1 against us.

(My vote was to call, because of the multi-way pot.)

Rob's explanation is correct, but I'll try to expand a bit on it.

Let's say that we play this hand 100 times. We expect, then, to:

* Lose 33 times.
* Win 67 times.

Right?

If we raise in this situation, we will lose $67 (67*1). But we will win $132 (33*4). This is why we should raise. If this was a heads-up situation, and we were still only 33% to win, raising would be bad. But here, you're the favorite.

 

[Stick66]

* Win 33 times.
* Lose 67 times.

Ahhh, I see now. Thanks FP!

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

/me shakes her blond hair and says, even a blond got this one right.

 

[Styrofoam]

knowing the hands...i'd probably fold. Simply because 2 over cards and 4 people in teh pot is not good odds...

However, i'd call anything if i didn't know the hands with JJ...

 

[Insomniac_1006]

call, assuming I didn't know the players

 

[aliengenius]

Honest question & forgive me for sounding negative: If we have a 33% chance of winning, that means we have a 67% chance of losing. Please explain to me why it's a good idea to risk MORE money by raising on odds that are 2-1 against us.

(My vote was to call, because of the multi-way pot.)

A lot of people probably are thinking this (^), and it was explained well here. Just to put it another way: the goal in poker isn't to win hands or pots, it's to win money. Understanding the concept of equity is so crucial I might go so far as to say that it's the big "secret" of poker. Of course you need to add the words "long term" on to my statement to make it technically correct.

 

[blankoblanco]

Also, if you know what everybody else has, it makes your postflop decisions far easier.

this is the easiest reason to raise and it's not even close.

but just knowing we're 33% to win alone should be enough

 

[robwhufc]

20 month old thread alert!

 

[ChuckTs]

^^^

And after all the explaining as to why raising is the right move all of the time, you still say call, Insomniac?

 

[Insomniac_1006]

welp, considering I'm not sleeping much these days, I will have to look at this when I can do some ana. ooops almost derailed the thread. Will look at it when I can actually stop and think about.

 

[Insomniac_1006]

Nope changed my mind.

Fold.

Are we talking the Fundmental therom of poker, and if so doesn't it apply to seeing all of your opponents cards, not just the hole cards.

With everybody in, with a raise and a reraise, someone is going to shove the pot and I don't tend to risk all of my chips preflop so I would be out the cost of the bet and one big blind.

I'll wait for a better hand.

 

[blankoblanco]

Nope changed my mind.

Fold.

Are we talking the Fundmental therom of poker, and if so doesn't it apply to seeing all of your opponents cards, not just the hole cards.

With everybody in, with a raise and a reraise, someone is going to shove the pot and I don't tend to risk all of my chips preflop so I would be out the cost of the bet and one big blind.

I'll wait for a better hand.

you know everyone's cards and you're favored to win over anyone else. if you can't use that to your advantage to the point where you want to pump as much into the pot as possible preflop, there's a huuuuge problem with the way you're playing