PT4 - Overall Luck Bell Curve

wrzlbrnft

wrzlbrnft

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I use now arround 6 months PockerTracker4 and still there is a lot to discover in this tool. I found the "Overeall Luck Bell Curve" and this graph shows me, what I assumed already last year. I am rather unlucky...:(
Here my "Luck Bell Curve" for flushes, straights and sets from more than 10k cash game hands at 888 in 2021.
An explanation can be found here: https://www.pokertracker.com/videos...iew-stats-leaktracker-overall-luck-bell-curve
Anyone else wants to share his curve?
 

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LetterRip

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Interesting idea. Other stuff would be how frequently villain hits their full house when they are drawing versus your made flush or straight.

Or how often your two pair are counterfeited versus expectation.
 
GreenDaddy1

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226k cash game 6 max hands lol!!
 

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puzzlefish

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Eventually when I play on a laptop, I will get PT and get this graph. Out of curiosity, can it generate this graph as a function of time? Let's say you want to see how your luck changes every week/month/year?
 
GreenDaddy1

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Eventually when I play on a laptop, I will get PT and get this graph. Out of curiosity, can it generate this graph as a function of time? Let's say you want to see how your luck changes every week/month/year?

Yeah you can use all the usual filters for time period, stake etc and generate the graph with just that data. For example I can see with the sneaky 2700 10nl hands I've played this year that I am definitely not bankrolled for my luck is superb and it is no wonder I am up about $50 :p
 

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TomCj

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Probability versus Program

Statistics (Analysis of Data) was one of my favorite courses in college

The bell curve distribution applies to almost everything in the world that has anything to do with numbers, events, characteristics, etc - almost everything

However, there are always extraneous factors that can "Skew" the distribution in favor of one direction

If you had been playing with real cards, in actual physical card rooms, your data would probably be somewhat more reliable as to your "luck"

Online, there are a host of factors that could enter into your actual data to "confound" the distribution, not the least of which are the players you are typically up against, or even the actual poker programs themselves.

That being said, Good Luck!


TC
 
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fundiver199

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When looking at curves like these or for that matter all-in adjusted EV, its important to remember, that they only measure a selected part of variance or luck. Our results will also be influenzed by, how often our opponents make big hands, when we are playing with them, and by the distribution of coolers like AA vs. KK or set over set. Or even just how often we hit top pair vs. miss completely.

Also a standard deviation will be way smaller after 200k hands than 10k hands. So even if the graph show, we have been running cold with sets, flushes and straights over 200k hands, that might only mean, we have hit them a few percent less often than statistically expected. Say we only saw a flop with a pocket pair 8 times. Then we were expected to flop a set once, but of course many samples will see us flopping a set 0 or 2 times and occationally 3+. So even a large relative deviation like seeing 100% fewer or more sets wont put us far out on the bell curve, because its a fairly common outcome.

If however we saw a flop with a pocket pair 10.000 times, then flopping a set 1.100 times or 1.400 times rather than the expected 1.250 times will already put us far out on the bell curve, because not many people will run this cold or hot. But its not like, the unlucky player never saw a set. He just did not see quite as many of them as statistically expected. So if we have bell curves like those of GreenDaddy1 for 6-max games after 200k hands, thats obviously not great. But at the same time it probably also did not have that huge of an impact on our overall results. If we are beating the games, we should be able to show a profit even with this little bit of headwind.
 
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