Probability question....

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redfish99999

Guest
For any given card on the flop, a K for example, what is the probability that another K will be dealt on the turn or river?????? given that a full nine table exists.........

A very pertinent question if I had pocket Qs..............

I think the answer is about 8 in 16 maybe 8 in 13........

KyleJRM

Visionary
The number of players at the table doesn't matter. It only matters how many cards we know.

Presuming this is some variety of holdem, and the card in question didn't pair you, there are three remaining Kings. We know our 2 cards and the 3 cards on the board, so there are 47 unknown cards, 44 of which will not pair the card in question.

44/47*44/47 gives us the odds of "not-King" hitting twice, or roughly 87%. So roughly a 13% chance of that card pairing in the next two cards.

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redfish99999

Guest
Thanks,

Now, for the question I meant to ask.....

For that same K that came up on the flop, and a full table of nine players, what is the probability that one of the other players has a K ??????????

So, I sittin' here with pocket Qs, what is the probabiliity that some other player has Ks?

TIA

dj11

Legend
Thats digging into the very meat of poker.

Several considerations. What hand you put your opponents on, and have they proved to you they can pull off a bluff? 3rd consideration....do you have alternate plans?

zachvac

Legend
Now, for the question I meant to ask.....

For that same K that came up on the flop, and a full table of nine players, what is the probability that one of the other players has a K ??????????

So, I sittin' here with pocket Qs, what is the probabiliity that some other player has Ks?

TIA

Well we can do that math, but it would be irrelevant. The pure fact that they called preflop means they're more likely to call with a K, and if you're considering calling a bet from them on the flop this also increases their odds of having it (unless they're cbetting 100%). In short, it doesn't matter what the odds are given no other information, because we have information. It would be like saying you should call a 4-bet shove with K9o because the odds are you have the guy beat. Before all the action this is true, but this action has given you evidence for you to use and you have to consider that. So basically the answer is that depending on reads you can make an estimate, but any exact answer is going to be flat out false because it's impossible to quantify exactly the opponent's range. The best we can do is estimate or make a move that will enable us to be more precise on the range.

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redfish99999

Guest
Thanks Guys, but.....

there IS a specific probability that someone (of the eight other players) has a K....

You guys are answering me with the 'people' considerations not the 'number' considerations.........

I'm just trying to establish a probability in my mind.....then, armed with the odds, can take a strategic move....

TIA

KyleJRM

Visionary
18 cards, each drawing to 44/47 (pool of cards that isn't a king). 44/47 to the 18th power is 30.5%.

So there's roughly a 70 percent chance that someone was dealt a king at the full ring.

Wait, I don't htink that's right, because each of the 18 cards takes away from the pool.

So it's 44/47*43/46*42/45...etc.

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zachvac

Legend
there IS a specific probability that someone (of the eight other players) has a K....

You guys are answering me with the 'people' considerations not the 'number' considerations.........

I'm just trying to establish a probability in my mind.....then, armed with the odds, can take a strategic move....

TIA

There's a probability if all the players are playing randomly or playing blind. This is what way too many people don't understand. It's not that there's math and numbers and then there's the psychology and making reads. The math is based on reads as well. A good poker player applies the math using all the information they have. This includes tells, history, playing style. But if you want the odds given a random hand it's 1-((44/47)(43/46)), if there are 2 people in the hand it's 1-((44/47)(43/46)(42/45)(41/44)), etc. adding 2 more cards for each person in the hand. But again, using this number would be absolutely moronic, because you would be ignoring a lot of the data that you have. Math is not something abstract, it's a tool used to analyze the concrete, and you are trying to use math and ignoring a shitload of concrete information you have. The numbers based on a random hand, a completely faulty assumption, are completely useless.

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redfish99999

Guest
Thanks

I figured about eight out of 13 as the probability = 62%....therefore close.......

I'm not a 'people person (hell, i'm an electrical engineer) so therefore have to work the numbers side of the game a little more...... I know this means I'm not very good at it but its pretty good fun and costs me only about \$2. per week...............

Thanks again.........

zachvac

Legend
I figured about eight out of 13 as the probability = 62%....therefore close.......

I'm not a 'people person (hell, i'm an electrical engineer) so therefore have to work the numbers side of the game a little more...... I know this means I'm not very good at it but its pretty good fun and costs me only about \$2. per week...............

Thanks again.........

It's just that numbers mean nothing without context. Every number ha assumptions in poker. You got the number assuming everyone is playing every hand. This is a bad assumption. Believe me I use and apply the numbers to my game a lot more than other people (too much according to some here), but the important thing is to apply them correctly.

If you are fine just having it as a side hobby and having fun and not being that good than you can ignore most of this, but if you really want to get better you should visit the forum, read some of the hand analysis posts and see the numbers really being applied the way they should be, to a likely range of hands, rather than assuming everyone has a random hand.

B

/\ /\

Word

PokerPete

RIP Logic And Sanity
Loyaler
But if you want the odds given a random hand it's 1-((44/47)(43/46)), if there are 2 people in the hand it's 1-((44/47)(43/46)(42/45)(41/44)), etc. adding 2 more cards for each person in the hand.
(hell, i'm an electrical engineer) so therefore have to work the numbers side of the game a little more......
It's just that numbers mean nothing without context.

OK... what Zach is trying to tell you is "yes, there is an answer to your question.... but the answer I give you is not really useful and you really need to be asking a different question"....

kind of like calulating the current through one of eight +/-10% resistors in parrallel to ten decimal places.... sure you can do it... but just how much value is there in the answer?

For that same K that came up on the flop, and a full table of nine players, what is the probability that one of the other players has a K

again, this really doesn't matter.....
maybe the guy has k9os and paired his king..... maybe the guy has ppAces, maybe the guy paired two cards on the flop, maybe the guy has ppJ's and his read says that you'll fold to a bet... what matters is what you think he might have ( i.e. what do you put him on )... or better yet, what is the best hand he could have and can you still beat it given your two cards, the flop, turn and river? What do you think might beat his hand.... hitting a set? a full house? a flush?

Once you've determined all of these things in you mind, now you can use math to calculate your odds of winning this pot!

Under the articles tab above you'll find this: Poker Odds for Dummies - Poker Odds Made Simple!

This has some really good "math stuff" in it for us folks who just plain love the numbers.... plus it will help you frame your way of thinking so that you can apply the math

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donkeykiller

Enthusiast
Good odds post that was good questtion and a good answer

47 cards remain and 4 K's so divde the equation and there you go.