Premium Hands - Stack-offs with Nits

Grinderella

Grinderella

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Hi,

I've written this post to examine some common situations that arise between regs in Ring Games. Some of it may also apply to SNGs/MTTs. Hope you enjoy.




AA
has a preflop starting equity of 85.2% vs.1 opponent with any random hand. This is an enormous advantage and is the reason why during a stack-off nearly 9 times out of 10 the unfortunate caller/raiser gets totally crushed. It is such a strong hand that even if you give the other player a 3Bet/4Bet/5Bet stacking off range of 3%, the Aces’ equity in the hand only drops to 83.7% (almost nothing). If we add 1 additional villain, so that the Aces are stacking off multiway with 2 opponent’s their equity only drops to about 73.5%. This means they will still crush both of those opponent’s about 3 out every 4 times this happens. It’s no surprise then when we see a player’s face drop when their opponent flips this hand over. It’s a hideous monster with fangs and bad breath.


KK is not far behind rockets at all. Against a random hand the Kings have an average equity of 82.4%. Against two random hands Kings enjoy 70% equity. When played in a heads-up pot, they will crush a random hand 4 out of every 5 times you stack-off with them, but the keyword here is random. Most good players will be playing tight and only stacking off preflop with a value range of about 3%. This looks like {JJ+ AKo AQs}. In this case the Kings have an equity of about 63% and we expect to win just shy of 2/3rds of the time. This is not a huge advantage compared to the Aces and sometimes makes the Kings muckable against the tightest regs and nits. “Muck Kings you say?? He must be out of his mind”, well there’s method to my madness and here’s why: The tightest regs and nits will have dropped Jacks and Ace-Queen from their 4bet/5bet ranges. This makes their stack-offs look like {QQ+ AKs AKo} or 2%. In this case our Kings will have lost most of their strength as our equity vs. a 2% range is now only 57%. And the news gets worse. If they are the nittiest nits in nitland they will have even removed QQ giving their 4/5bet range 52% equity Vs. our KK and turning a stackoff into a coinflip. Now, there is light at the end of the tunnel, obviously facing a range of 1-2% is the extreme and not the norm. Against many opponent’s we will be in a strong position with KK, but it is good to have these statistics in mind in case we do run into heavy action from nits. You’re allowed to fold your Kings against those guys, and feel good about it afterwards. There’s no point in playing heads or tails with your bankroll. One caveat though: Against fish, bad regs and maniacs, your Kings are a dangerous weapon and should be played aggressively, although do take care on A-high boards!


QQ although beneath the Aces and Kings, Queens are still a powerhouse hand and should be played as such. In terms of equity, the hand has an impressive 80% vs. a random hand. Against 2 random opponent hands, the Queens’ equity will drop to about 65%. This is not terrible, but it means that Queens need to be played more cautiously than Aces and Kings. Let’s again examine a stack-off situation with a nitty opponent with a 3% 3Bet/4Bet range. Looking at equities again: QQ has about 48% equity against a 3% range which is just less than a coinflip. This is considerably weaker than the Aces (84%) and Kings (63%) Vs. this range. If we go to the worst case scenario again where the Nit has removed {JJ, QQ and AQ} from their range, our Queens now have only a 39.8% chance of coming out on top. It is very important not to limp or bet small with Queens as they do not perform well multiway. Queens need to be raised big or folded, as they are looking to get heads up with 1 weak ranged opponent. On that point, one of the biggest leaks I’ve seen at the micros and some of the higher stakes is players getting into stack-off wars with Nits and taking their Queens too far. As you can see from the running the numbers. This is not a good idea. Of course you will spike the odd Q by the river but in the long run you will get stacked by going head to head with nits. Just like the Kings, QQ should be played aggressively against fish and weak ranges but be ready to ditch them facing significant action from good tight regs.



AK Suited & Offsuit
are by far two of the biggest leak hands in many players’ games. When played correctly AK is a monster and commands respect. Unfortunately it has some of the highest potential for way ahead/way behind situations. Just looking at equity here AK Suited has 67% equity Vs. 1 opponent with a random hand while AK Offsuit has about 65%. If we’re going multiway with 2 opponent’s AKs will now only have 50.7%,at best a coin flip. Now if we return to the example of stacking off with 1 nitty 3% player, we will have an equity of only 45%. If they’re the super tight nit with no {JJ, QQ and AQ} this will drop to 40%, which is a losing proposition in the long run. I think a lot of players find this very surprising. When we think about Ace-King, we think about “Big-Slick”, the celebrity Powerhouse hand that Poker players love to be dealt. Yes, it’s true this hand can be very Powerful, but unlike Aces and Kings it is still looking for additional cards to improve. Unfortunately at least 1 or even 2 of the cards that it needs to improve is likely to be in the nits hand already. So how are you going to make money? If you have a habit of stacking off against regs pre-flop with AKs and AKo then I would suggest doing something about it. Your win-rate and bankroll will thank you. Just like {AA KK QQ} play AK Suited and Offsuit aggressively against A-x maniacs, bad regs and fish, and remember to proceed with caution against solid, tight opponents.



Thanks for reading. Questions and comments welcome.

G
 
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vinnie

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This is not a huge advantage compared to the Aces and sometimes makes the Kings muckable against the tightest regs and nits. “Muck Kings you say?? He must be out of his mind”, well there’s method to my madness and here’s why: The tightest regs and nits will have dropped Jacks and Ace-Queen from their 4bet/5bet ranges. This makes their stack-offs look like {QQ+ AKs AKo} or 2%. In this case our Kings will have lost most of their strength as our equity vs. a 2% range is now only 57%. And the news gets worse. If they are the nittiest nits in nitland they will have even removed QQ giving their 4/5bet range 52% equity Vs. our KK and turning a stackoff into a coinflip. Now, there is light at the end of the tunnel, obviously facing a range of 1-2% is the extreme and not the norm. Against many opponent’s we will be in a strong position with KK, but it is good to have these statistics in mind in case we do run into heavy action from nits. You’re allowed to fold your Kings against those guys, and feel good about it afterwards. There’s no point in playing heads or tails with your bankroll.

No, just no. This is such bad logic, because even when we lose 52% of the time, there is enough dead money after a 4/5 bet that we can profitably call with KK against a AK/KK+ range (true for most stacks, but especially true for 100xbb stacks).

A 4-bet spot:
He raises to 3xbb, you 3-bet to 8xbb, he 4-bets to 20xbb, you ???

... Can shove here profitably as long as you have more than 46% equity (92/200) when called. You are only in bad shape when he removes QQ and AKo from his range (a 1.2% range). If he calls with AKo and QQ 50% of the time, you are fine and have more than enough equity. We prefer QQ to AKo, but adding either of these to his range gives us enough equity.​

A 5-bet spot

You raise to 3xbb, he 3-bet to 8xbb, you 4-bet to 20xbb, he raises to 100xbb all-in, you ???

... Call!!! Obviously. You are risking 80 to win 120. That means you only need 40% equity to call (80/200). We know that you have more than this most of the time. Again, we are only in bad shape when there are no combinations of AKo and QQ in his range. I don't think this is reasonable for nearly any players. Maybe, maybe an 8%/5% set-miner... but even then I think he's still going to town with QQ hoping you have AK.

If you are folding KK pre-flop, you likely are making a mistake.

Edit: I realize that this feels like an unnecessary risk, but cash is about taking the most +EV spot whenever possible. Since getting the money in with KK is higher EV than folding, you get the money in.

Edit 2: In case it isn't clear, I call or shove KK against even the nittiest of nits. Unless I have seen many, many 4-5 bets from that player and every single one of them was AA, I can't fold KK.
 
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Grinderella

Grinderella

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Hi Vinnie,

I'm just dealing with average hand equities in isolation here. (Not expected value). I know that certainly there are situations that warrant calls based on pots/dead money etc because it pushes the EV into positive. This post has been designed for less experienced players who are just getting to grips with relative stack-off equities (Prior to this info being input into EV calcs). Thanks for commenting.

G
 
vinnie

vinnie

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You can't talk about equity in isolation. It is meaningless. There's no way that you are getting 4-bet or 5-bet and there isn't enough money to call with 48% equity. I even went with HUGE shoves over small raise, 3-bet, and 4-bet sizing. And I also put both players in the blinds to give the worst possible scenario. In almost all other spots, you are better off.

You can't ignore the expected value in these spots. The whole purpose of understanding your equity is to determine if your expected value is positive or negative. It is a mistake to refuse to play unless you have greater than 50% equity, when the pot is offering you the right price. That's like stating that a player should always fold a nut flush draw on the turn against an all-in, since they will only make it 9 times out of 46 (less than 20%). But, if the all-in was $6 into a $30 pot, you would be burning money by folding there. That's because folding has an EV of $0 and calling has an EV of +$2.22. You can't just pass on an extra $2.22 very often and be a winning player.

Consider if all the raises were pot-sized and both players are outside the blinds.

Original raise to 3.5xbb, 3-bet to 12xbb, 4-bet to 37.5xbb, 5-bet all-in 100xbb.

If you 3-bet and got 4-bet, you have 12 in and are risking 88 more. You need (88/201.5) 43.7% to put that 5-bet shove in.

If you 4-bet and face the 5-bet shove, you have 37.5 in and are risking 62.5 more. You need (62.5/201.5) 31.0% equity to call profitably.​

You can't ignore the dead money in the pot. Your scenario only works if you are facing a shove with KK, having no money in the pot, and your opponent signs a sworn affidavit that they have KK+ or AK.
 
Grinderella

Grinderella

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Again, you're completely right. But just to reiterate. My post is about comparing the average strength of premium hands Vs. tight ranges that are associated with 3Bet/4Bet/5Bet ranges, not about the exact EV of calling/folding. Your replies are great, and are a natural extension of my equity study. If readers use them in tandum, they will get great results. Thanks.

G
 
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Samuel Kollapso

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:)

Hi Vinnie,

I'm just dealing with average hand equities in isolation here. (Not expected value). I know that certainly there are situations that warrant calls based on pots/dead money etc because it pushes the EV into positive. This post has been designed for less experienced players who are just getting to grips with relative stack-off equities (Prior to this info being input into EV calcs). Thanks for commenting.

G

Publication of great value for people who are starting now, as it improves the interpretation it will increase the other% that our friend mentioned above, I got to understand your intentions very well!
:acordo:
 
Grinderella

Grinderella

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Absolutely. It is only an overview of relative premium hand equites, and not meant to be a Fold/Call set of instructions. There are too many variables in all of the different kinds of stackoff situations such as: Dead money from ColdCall/Folders, Situational considerations, Opponent tendencies which may affect their ranges, and affect our calling decisions. I am happy to delete the thread and reformat it with Vinnie's analysis added, as I think it is extremely valuable. If he is ok with that then I will do it.

Thanks

G
 
Keith_MM

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above post doesn't correlate with the original post . Where you say that you should be folding KK preflop and feel happy about it and stop stacking off with AK vs regs they are just wrong especially if its 6max and 10nl+ where regs will be 3betting 8%+
 
N

Neek4555

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What. I'll never understand is when people call an..all in knowing they are at BEST CASE flipping. I just cannot grasp that concept. Not even talking 6BB. I just do not get it
 
vinnie

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Absolutely. It is only an overview of relative premium hand equites, and not meant to be a Fold/Call set of instructions. There are too many variables in all of the different kinds of stackoff situations such as: Dead money from ColdCall/Folders, Situational considerations, Opponent tendencies which may affect their ranges, and affect our calling decisions. I am happy to delete the thread and reformat it with Vinnie's analysis added, as I think it is extremely valuable. If he is ok with that then I will do it.

Thanks

G

I don't think we need to delete it. There's a lot of good stuff here, we just need to work on it and improve it. There are a few things to discuss, like hand ranges. You are on the right track for good poker. You are making assumptions about you opponents, and then you are trying to find the best play based on those assumptions. We can improve on the plays by discussing certain situations and specifics we might find ourselves in. A 50xbb situation is going to play differently than a 250xbb situation. And, yes, I have folded KK to a five hundred big blind cold 3-bet-shove before (did I ever mention how much I miss the FTP micro zoom player pool from before Black Friday?).

The other thing to consider is that ranges are going to be different when stack sizes are different. I have a lot more suited connectors and very few hands like AJo and 33 in my EP ranges when 300+ effective big blinds deep than when I am 80xbb effective. There are reasons for that, which we can get into later.

What we should do is develop this discussion here, and let everyone participate. Then, when we feel ready, we can work on compiling a summary post.

above post doesn't correlate with the original post . Where you say that you should be folding KK preflop and feel happy about it and stop stacking off with AK vs regs they are just wrong especially if its 6max and 10nl+ where regs will be 3betting 8%+

This is a valid point, and one that I hadn't gotten around to. There is definitely some need to work on the hand ranges in the OP. But, he's got the right idea. Formulate a reasonable range for your opponents, and then consider your equity against that range. The following is from a PLO book, referencing a Limit Hold'em Player's statement, but it is apropos.

2.1 Good Poker
"Good Poker" is a model of poker decision making presented by high stakes LHE player Bryce "Freedom25" Paradis in one of his early videos for Stoxpoker.com. The Good Poker model describes the poker decision making process as a two-step process:

1. Formulate a set of accurate assumptions
2. Find the best play based on these assumptions

Step 2 is the simplest part of the process. Step one can be very difficult, and we have to use a combination of generalized assumptions, specific opponent information and logic. This process is difficult to learn in a systematic manner, and experience is very important. The more we play, the better we get at perceiving what goes on around us. But when a set of assumptions exists (whether they are good or bad), it's easy (in principle) to deduce the best play based on these assumptions. Going from assumptions to a conclusion about the best course of action is a process governed by mathematics and logic. So Step 2 in the Good Poker decision making process can in principle be done exactly. In practice we rarely find the mathematically best line of play, but we can train ourselves to at least find a find a good line most of the time.

Since improving on Step 1 is a difficult and slow process, we want to put most effort into Step 2 when we want to improve our poker decision making process. Our goal is to always find the best line (or at least a decent line) given what we know, or think we know. If we can get Step 2 right, we will always be able to get the most out of whatever information and assumptions we have. And the more experience we gather, the better our assumptions will become, and the better our poker decisions will become.

-- From: "Pot Limit Omaha from Scratch" by Bugs​

I agree that step 1, of the original post, might be improved on. So does step 2. That's the one that I started with. I agree that there are some ranges that I don't agree with. First off, there are nits who literally will not 4-bet or 5-bet without AA. They won't even do it with KK. You exploit those players by folding to their 4-bets and 5-bets, while 3-betting to take advantage of their frequent folds and clearly defined calling range. These aren't your regs, who are 3-betting 8%.

Anyway, accurate ranges are something that should probably be addressed.

What. I'll never understand is when people call an..all in knowing they are at BEST CASE flipping. I just cannot grasp that concept. Not even talking 6BB. I just do not get it

Would you be willing to flip a coin under the following conditions: if it lands on heads, I pay you $2, but if it lands on tails, you pay me $1?

I hope you would be eager to flip this coin, and be willing to do it as often as I was willing to allow. On average, you will make $0.50 every time we flip. In fact, you should be willing to do it even if the amounts were +$2,000 for heads and -$1,000 for tails. In that case, you are averaging $500 a flip. This is a situation where you are losing half the time, but you are making more money from your wins than from your losses.

How about if I rolled a fair die, and you paid me $1 if it was 4 or lower, but I paid you $3 when it was 5 or higher? Again, you should be eager to take this bet even though you are going to lose twice as often as you win. For every 6 rolls, I win 4 and you only win 2. But, you win $6 from your 2 wins and only lose $4 from the 4 losses. That's +$2/6 per roll.

A 50/50 spot, in poker, is similar. If you are being offered enough money that it will average a profit, you should take it. If you can't afford to take those opportunities, when they come up, you are playing outside your bankroll.
 
Grinderella

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Really interesting replies guys. I think it's a good idea to keep this post going. Great analysis of stackoff situations. Yes in terms of determining the equity of a premium hand vs a certain range, that was the basis of my entire post, to share interesting facts about the differences in equity between different premium hands. I accept that I did make a few statements that recommended folds in certain spots. My examples did not take dead money or stack sizes into account, as I was trying to simplify the examples and make them more accessible. It seems I over-simplified them. I do apologise for any confusion. Please continue to post replies and examples as this is becoming a very valuable thread.

G
 
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davidhoyle107

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What are we defining as a nit. Also, what are the nits 3 bet and all in stats? If he's got like 5 or 6 percen vpip and a 1 or 2 % 3 bet range after several hundred hands, I may fold king king pre flop. If its a average nit its probably good to go all in.
 
taurusix

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Very interesting topic. Thanks Grinderella and others for valuable inputs.
Is there any calculation on premium hands equity (lets take only AA and KK) vs multiway pushes from 3+ players, which from time to time occurs in tourneys? Will a Hero still call profitably (50%+) against shoves from 3+ pushers?
 
sryulaw

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Very interesting topic. Thanks Grinderella and others for valuable inputs.
Is there any calculation on premium hands equity (lets take only AA and KK) vs multiway pushes from 3+ players, which from time to time occurs in tourneys? Will a Hero still call profitably (50%+) against shoves from 3+ pushers?

THE MORE PLAYERS REMAIN TO SPEAK AFTER YOU, THE STRONGER YOU SHOULD BE WITH AS LETTERS TO OPT FOR THE PUSH.
Similarly, and with much more intensity, when some opponent has already entered from all in before you its tendency to continue to decrease further. That's because you lose one of the main ways to win the hand, that is, the opponent's fold.

BE MORE LOOSE TO BET ANYTHING AND MUCH MORE TO PAY AN ALL IN.
For simplicity, let's say you're in a currency situation and your opponent, all your with 20% + initiatives. In this case, you go from PUSH you have a 90% chance of winning (80% with the opponent's fold and 10% in the times you pay and you win). Now imagine yourself paying the same on all your chances of victory dropped to 50% missiles.
 
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