pot odds, impled odds and other calculations

[Nexar]

while i know that some people use them im wondering how many people use them and how much time do they take to calculate, probably less than a minute? less than 30 seconds? and im talking in real life where u have to count the chips pot than the odds

 

[dj11]

It is one of those things that will help make decisions. I've know about those particular odds for a long time, and have tried to make at least reasonable estimates at whether or not they were favorable. I have not been precise.

Reading HoH 1, there is a lot of reference to pot odds, implied odds etc, and I am learning to estimate better, and faster.

They may get more attention than they deserve. They may help you make a critical decision less than 10% of the time. Keep in mind how many hands are never brought to fruition, or are clearly decided without any regards to those odds. But every now and then, usually then, they might be the killer info that makes or breaks your day.

Hopefully several members will review some quick and dirty shortcuts on how to rapidly assess those odds. I have seen them pop up from time to time.

The very first section of the Articles tab will cover pot and implied odds. Find that button between Forums and Reviews in the light blue bar at the upper right of the main page.

 

[Four Dogs]

Calculating favorable pot odds doesn't take a minute or anything close to it. You don't have a minute, you have seconds. The good news is, that's all you need. More good news, you don't have to be a genius. ANYONE can do it. There is an amazingly simple trick called the rule of 2 and 4 which reliably produces pot odds accurate within a few percentage points, which is al you need. Here it is.

Simply count the number of outs you need to improve your hand and multiply by either 2 with one card to come, or 4 with 2 cards to come. For example, a flush draw has 9 outs, an open ended straight 8, and a gutshot 4.

Lets say you limp into a pot with [8h][9h] and the flop comes [2h][Ah][7s]. You check and the button bets 1/2 the pot. You want to see the turn, but is it worth the price? Your getting 3:1 odds to call, but is that favorable? The approximate odds of completing your flush draw with one card to come is 9 outs (memorize this) times the magic number 2 to arrive at 18% or about 4:1 (the true number is 19.5% but close enough). Not enough to make the call without considering the implied odds. However, suppose calling the 1/2 pot bet puts you all-in. Now you are guaranteed to see both the turn and the river. Instead of multiplying your 9 outs by 2 you multiply by 4. Your odds of completing your draw by the river improve to 9x4=36% or about 2:1 (actual odds are 35%). Now this becomes a favorable call or positive EV (expected value).

Strangly enough, provided a large enough chip stack for both you and your opponent, the first example might be more profitable than the second due to the implied odds of winning another bet should you complete your draw.

 

[Nexar]

Calculating favorable pot odds doesn't take a minute or anything close to it. You don't have a minute, you have seconds. The good news is, that's all you need. More good news, you don't have to be a genius. ANYONE can do it. There is an amazingly simple trick called the rule of 2 and 4 which reliably produces pot odds accurate within a few percentage points, which is al you need. Here it is.

Simply count the number of outs you need to improve your hand and multiply by either 2 with one card to come, or 4 with 2 cards to come. For example, a flush draw has 9 outs, an open ended straight 8, and a gutshot 4.

Lets say you limp into a pot with 8♥9♥ and the flop comes 2♥A♥7♠. You check and the button bets 1/2 the pot. You want to see the turn, but is it worth the price? Your getting 3:1 odds to call, but is that favorable? The approximate odds of completing your flush draw with one card to come is 9 outs (memorize this) times the magic number 2 to arrive at 18% or about 4:1 (the true number is 19.5% but close enough). Not enough to make the call without considering the implied odds. However, suppose calling the 1/2 pot bet puts you all-in. Now you are guaranteed to see both the turn and the river. Instead of multiplying your 9 outs by 2 you multiply by 4. Your odds of completing your draw by the river improve to 9x4=36% or about 2:1 (actual odds are 35%). Now this becomes a favorable call or positive EV (expected value).

Strangly enough, provided a large enough chip stack for both you and your opponent, the first example might be more profitable than the second due to the implied odds of winning another bet should you complete your draw.

ghee thanx ill start practicing this rule u just need to multiply thats easy

 

[amygrantfan]

i've found using a simple calculation like what you wrote about works really well in a limit game. but in a no limit game, it's much more difficult because if there are 2 cards to come,you don't know how much it will cost to see the 2nd card. also, this assumes you have a good read on your opponent. for instance, if you have a flush draw 9 outs, but you think they might also be 2 live cards, that could add 6 outs...but it depends if yoru opponent has already hit a 2 pair, or trip, or straight etc. so my humble opinion is you should use pot odds when you can, but it doesn't always quite give you the answer of what to do.

 

[Four Dogs]

i've found using a simple calculation like what you wrote about works really well in a limit game. but in a no limit game, it's much more difficult because if there are 2 cards to come,you don't know how much it will cost to see the 2nd card.

It is more useful in limit than no limit but not really for this reason. In limit there is a closer relationship between bet size and the final pot size. When you make your hand there's a strong chance you may not get much more out of your opponent. If he's worried about the way the board is shaping up he can control the pot size by merely calling you down. In no limit, implied odds play a much greater roll. If you make your draw you could end up stacking your opponent.

Knowing what it will cost to see the 2nd card doesn't come into play here. This short cut is based only on what you do know, that is, the cost to see the next card only, (the rule of 2) or the cost to see the next 2 cards should you or your opponent be all-in (the rule of 4). Sometimes you'll get lucky and buy a free card, but that should only be considered when you have reason to believe your opponent will check the turn card.

this assumes you have a good read on your opponent. for instance, if you have a flush draw 9 outs, but you think they might also be 2 live cards, that could add 6 outs...but it depends if yoru opponent has already hit a 2 pair, or trip, or straight etc. so my humble opinion is you should use pot odds when you can, but it doesn't always quite give you the answer of what to do.

It assumes only that your draw will be the best hand should you draw out, the rest is pure math. To be safe you should only count your live cards as possible outs. That is to say, don't count them at all unless they'll give you 2 pair or better. If you have a straight draw, count 8 outs and disregard any low pairs you may make.

 

[amygrantfan]

thx four dogs, that does make sense and is helpful

 

[jeffred1111]

Also, you can memorize the "regular" # of outs and the ratios attached to them (four to a flush 4.2:1, 4.9:1 on an open-eneded straight, etc.). Just substract the numbers of outs to the number of cards left in the deck and divide by the same number. Approximations can be done (50-9/9) = approx. 4.5 on the fly, but really, you should know pretty much every common odds from 14 outs to 2 outs by heart. Makes it easier this way and you can modify the forumal for any game (Stud doesn't have the same odds of making certain hands since there's only 1 card showing on third street and you thus have a certain number of cards "burned" and this number changes every street with players folding).