This is where Stu is "flat wrong". He's figuring the odds as being one draw to make my hand, instead of two draws. He's saying it would be 15 outs times two, if it was an all-in bet. He's saying I only get one draw for that bet, and denying that I can multiply by two, the way he counts outs. But I can make it two draws for the one bet by pushing all-in. Therfore, I am entitled to use the times two multiplyer, which I count as 30 outs, and he counts as 15 outs times two.
This is just dumb. Just admit you have no idea what you are talking about.
Whether you shove all in to see a turn and river or you call a flop bet to see a turn and then see river, you still have 15 outs only and 2 draws (2 cards to come). You can not increase your total number of outs just because you have more than one draw. Poker does not work that way, sir. The odds of you hitting your hand may increase, but not the number of outs. There are situations where the number of outs may increase-example: flopping a set, followed by a non-paired card on the turn increase your flop to turn, turn to river outs. However, this does not apply to your OP.
If what you are saying is true, then in an AA vs KK all in situation preflop, then KK has 2 outs left and 5 cards to come. There for 2 outs x 5 draws = 10 outs (kings) he can hit. But how is that possible? It's not because there are only 4 kings in a deck.
Another example is: You have $15 and you save it 3 days (no spending anything) how much do you have on the 3rd day? Well $15 x 3 = $45, but that's not possible is it? Money does not magically double up each day other wise I'd be rich by now. If you have $15 on day 1 and keep it until day 3, you still have the same $15 you started off with.
I believe you're confusing the % chance of hitting your hand on the turn using the rule of x 2. Simply put, take the number of outs you have and multiply by 2. So, if you're looking at flop bet to see a turn and you have 15 outs...15 x 2 = 30% chance of hitting one of your outs on the turn. This only applies if there is to any action on the next street (checking or betting). The same thing applies for call in a turn bet to see a river. However if you're facing an all in on the flop, if you call you'll know you're seeing both a turn card and river card. So, the rule is to multiply by 4...15 outs x 4 = ~60% of hitting your hand. Its actually less, but this is a simple rule of thumb. You mulitply by 4 since you figure out for both draws since in an all in you are guaranteed to see both cards. Where as, if it's just a bet, you figure outs for each draw individually since you still have the options to fold on a later street and may only see one draw.
Also, we're trying to help you since you, so quit being such an asshat.
