Polished Poker Vol. I Study Group

Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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Bah... I missed the utg limp, which is why I only made it 30 to open. If id noticed id have made it 100-120, they will limp call up to 15-20bb this early and with the aces I would have bumped it up there.
That makes a big difference to the utg range and the hand as a whole. I thought in-game it was the SB 3 betting and the BB flat calling the 3 bet which totally alters the hand.
Yes in that case UTG he could have a much wider range and is getting implied odds to call just about any pair.. The BB (who I thought was the SB) is still a problem but there is enough AK and draws to call it off. I still wouldn't have been happy GII this early but it would have changed my thinking totally.
I want to swear...but in a way I'm actually much happier that I simply misread it and i can feel the weight lifting off my shoulders as I type.
Oh well there is a lesson here for not paying full attention. Apologies for my earlier bluntness but perhaps you can now understand why.

Ya I mean he first limps UTG then calls a 3 bet then calls a 4 bet seems like someone who has no clue what they are doing. So our only worry is the BB who is simply never betting that big if he is beating you on the flop.

Sent from my XT1032 using Tapatalk
 
John A

John A

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Bah... I missed the utg limp, which is why I only made it 30 to open. If id noticed id have made it 100-120, they will limp call up to 15-20bb this early and with the aces I would have bumped it up there.
That makes a big difference to the utg range and the hand as a whole. I thought in-game it was the SB 3 betting and the BB flat calling the 3 bet which totally alters the hand.
Yes in that case UTG he could have a much wider range and is getting implied odds to call just about any pair.. The BB (who I thought was the SB) is still a problem but there is enough AK and draws to call it off. I still wouldn't have been happy GII this early but it would have changed my thinking totally.
I want to swear...but in a way I'm actually much happier that I simply misread it and i can feel the weight lifting off my shoulders as I type.
Oh well there is a lesson here for not paying full attention. Apologies for my earlier bluntness but perhaps you can now understand why.

It happens, but it is a critical miss. If it was a higher buy-in, maybe you don't miss it?

10 lashes for you... ;)
 
Figaroo2

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Another crazy shove from a whale. I'm like trying to get him to raise the whole way through this hand and then he shoves on the end. I tanked for ages here, the question is could he be doing this with a pair of aces or say AJ 2pair on the end or did he play AA JJ stupid...I dunno hes stupid enough and my hand is well disguised.
poker stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $6.54 (65.4 bb)
MP1: $9.85 (98.5 bb)
MP2: $10.67 (106.7 bb) vpip 62 pfr 15/36 agg% 44 hands
MP3: $11.25 (112.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.91 (109.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
spade4.gif
8
heart4.gif

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25) 8
diamond4.gif
4
spade4.gif
J
spade4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP2 calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.49) 6
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.23, MP2 calls $0.23

River: ($0.95) A
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, MP2 raises to $10.22 and is all-in
 
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Figaroo2

Figaroo2

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Another awkward spot. Do we call or fold on the end?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $17.07 (170.7 bb)
BB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): $10.64 (106.4 bb)
MP1: $10 (100 bb)
MP2: $13.08 (130.8 bb) 21/15/50% agg in 36 hands so he's a bit loose.
MP3: $10.41 (104.1 bb)
CO: $2.15 (21.5 bb)
BTN: $11.53 (115.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T
club4.gif
T
heart4.gif

Hero raises to $0.30, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($1) 3
spade4.gif
2
heart4.gif
2
diamond4.gif
(3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, MP2 calls $0.60, SB folds

Turn: ($2.20) J
spade4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

River: ($5) 4
heart4.gif
(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $3.50,
Hero?
I'm putting him on a mid pair most of the time, in which case should I be 3 barrellng for value?
I'm not sure I liked the way I handed over the initiative here.
 
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jh1spartanfan

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I just downloaded the book, I'm pretty excited to read it.
 
Thinker_145

Thinker_145

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Another crazy shove from a whale. I'm like trying to get him to raise the whole way through this hand and then he shoves on the end. I tanked for ages here, the question is could he be doing this with a pair of aces or say AJ 2pair on the end or did he play AA JJ stupid...I dunno hes stupid enough and my hand is well disguised.
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $6.54 (65.4 bb)
MP1: $9.85 (98.5 bb)
MP2: $10.67 (106.7 bb) vpip 62 pfr 15/36 agg% 44 hands
MP3: $11.25 (112.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.91 (109.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
spade4.gif
8
heart4.gif

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25) 8
diamond4.gif
4
spade4.gif
J
spade4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP2 calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.49) 6
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.23, MP2 calls $0.23

River: ($0.95) A
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, MP2 raises to $10.22 and is all-in
You should be betting more on a wet board.

Anyways I would never even contemplate folding that for 100 BB. The only hand I am worried about is 75 but if we are up against that then so be it we are beating so many hands here. He could by all means be doing that with Aces up.

I personally believe that one should never be worried about a higher set with 100 BB.
 
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mottotom27

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Another crazy shove from a whale. I'm like trying to get him to raise the whole way through this hand

i don't get this logic. you bet less than half pot on each street to try and induce a passive 62/15 whale to raise? and on a wet board too? no, just bet close to pot on each street otherwise you're missing a huge amount of value from a whale who does nothing but call all day. river is a tough spot i think, i mean when a passive whale just shoves the money in you have to consider the possibility he just has the nuts
 
John A

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Another crazy shove from a whale. I'm like trying to get him to raise the whole way through this hand and then he shoves on the end. I tanked for ages here, the question is could he be doing this with a pair of aces or say AJ 2pair on the end or did he play AA JJ stupid...I dunno hes stupid enough and my hand is well disguised.
Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players

SB: $10 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $6.54 (65.4 bb)
MP1: $9.85 (98.5 bb)
MP2: $10.67 (106.7 bb) vpip 62 pfr 15/36 agg% 44 hands
MP3: $11.25 (112.5 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)
BTN: $10.91 (109.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8
spade4.gif
8
heart4.gif

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 4 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25) 8
diamond4.gif
4
spade4.gif
J
spade4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP2 calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.49) 6
diamond4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.23, MP2 calls $0.23

River: ($0.95) A
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $0.45, MP2 raises to $10.22 and is all-in

It sucks if you got snookered by 75 here, which is probably what happened, but AJ, 44/66 and even A8 could have a whale shoving. Add in a decent aggression by the whale and some missed draws and I don't think you're ever folding here.

But man... You're against a whale on a wet board and hit gin, why are you betting so small? You know what you should be doing. Think about if he just called with whatever hand he has by the river with this bet sizing versus proper bet sizing. How many bb's is that losing by the river? That's a huge leak. :(
 
Figaroo2

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Interesting that there are lots of hands with big shoves being posted around the forums and they are all turning out to be value shoves. I think its right to default think value at anything under 10nl.
I always used to fold pretty much automatically to these big over shoves but now I have a better understanding of ranges I find im talking myself into calling much more often. This is costing me too much and having withdrawn a large chunk of my bankroll to pay the bills I now find im not properly rolled for 25nl and have dropped back down to 10nl.
Add to this some tilt issues my Volume is down by 50% this month, my confidence is low. Attempts to raise aggression levels are often backfiring as I keep just running into the nuts. People are calling big 3bets with 33 66 and hitting sets and stacking me. I'm trying to fight my way through this horrible phase. One of my major irks is that you work really hard on your game and things just seem to get worse.
And yes the whale had 75 sigh just typical of my current running.
 
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or3o1990

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Hello all. I've been quietly following this thread for some time now as I have been attempting to transition to cash games from sng.

I just put down my latest poker book and I've been anxiously waiting to read this one. Big thanks to John A for giving the book away for free! I was equally surprised and impressed by that! Also, props on the HH converter tools, many of us in the USA would be lost without it!

So, like I said I'm just now transitioning and I don't have that much cash game experience but I'm eager to learn. So I'm going to give your book a read and I'm hoping it would be ok for me to jump into some conversations and maybe post some hands in the future?
 
John A

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Interesting that there are lots of hands with big shoves being posted around the forums and they are all turning out to be value shoves. I think its right to default think value at anything under 10nl.
I always used to fold pretty much automatically to these big over shoves but now I have a better understanding of ranges I find im talking myself into calling much more often. This is costing me too much and having withdrawn a large chunk of my bankroll to pay the bills I now find im not properly rolled for 25nl and have dropped back down to 10nl.
Add to this some tilt issues my Volume is down by 50% this month, my confidence is low. Attempts to raise aggression levels are often backfiring as I keep just running into the nuts. People are calling big 3bets with 33 66 and hitting sets and stacking me. I'm trying to fight my way through this horrible phase. One of my major irks is that you work really hard on your game and things just seem to get worse.
And yes the whale had 75 sigh just typical of my current running.

So keep in mind a few things:

1) Most people are posting hands in forums where they called and lost. You're not seeing many ones where they called and won. People tend to be very results oriented by nature.
2) It's true that at these stakes, when players are aggressive or shove, they often have big hands more than bluffs. We've talked about this a ton. That doesn't mean they will never bluff, so you have to consider hand ranges, but in general you need to weight the nutted hands much stronger at micro stakes.
3) You're in that learning limbo spot. I've told you this before. You're learning and understanding the game better, and you need to learn how to balance that learning and know how to apply it against the types of players you're facing. Players at 200nl+ will talk about ranges in a very similar way to a 25nl player today, but the weight and balance of those ranges are much different between stakes.
4) You made lots of mistakes in that hand. Some of that could have avoided you getting stacked.

You should be betting near to slightly above pot against someone like this on the flop. If you bet .25+ maybe he just folds his 7 high. But in general, you don't want him folding of course, but his continuing range on that board will be so wide you want to take advantage of it.

You bet too small on the turn.

You should have check raised the river. This is a prime spot that the standard line should be CR. All the draws miss basically on the river, and a scare card comes against an aggressive player. The only hand he's calling if you bet that he might check behind is Jx. He's betting everything else and his missed draws (and he's aggressive). So the weight of those hands he's betting versus calling is much much higher.

You're putting good work in, but there's still lots more to learn. Just take a small break, and don't play poker for a day or so. No study or anything. Just get your mind clear. You're making great progress and you're hitting a learning hole that you'll climb out of soon enough.
 
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mottotom27

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You should have check raised the river. This is a prime spot that the standard line should be CR. All the draws miss basically on the river, and a scare card comes against an aggressive player.

This is actually a really interesting point. I often get into the habit of just auto betting my strong hands without actually thinking things through properly. leakbuster shows my river aggression too high so since i'm not bluffing all that often i'm guessing it's just that i'm not checking to induce often enough vs aggressive players
 
Figaroo2

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Take a break...hmmmfp I was actually itching to play last night after a very low volume week and the feeling like the fog of tilt has lifted.
Mottotom sweated with me for a few hours (thanks buddy) and I got back to basics, cut out the fancy plays and booked my best session of the month. It's very useful having someone sweat with you, its really helps keeping you focused when you are verbalising your reasoning.
I also cut down the number of tables and spent more time studying the opponents stats before acting. I also spent more time considering my bet sizing all of which has helped. After Tom left I logged off and had a break but felt I was playing so nicely I played for another hour and won another couple of buyins on top of the two won earlier So obviously feeling much better after this session.
 
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Figaroo2

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Ok so the feel good last 30 mins must run better

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players

SB: $24.75 (99 bb)
BB: $30.58 (122.3 bb)
Hero (MP1): $28.47 (113.9 bb)
MP2: $25 (100 bb)
MP3: $45.53 (182.1 bb)
CO: $25 (100 bb) Just sat down
BTN: $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9
club4.gif
9
diamond4.gif

CO posts BB OOP, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) 4
spade4.gif
9
spade4.gif
2
heart4.gif
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.68, CO calls $1.68, BB folds

Turn: ($5.71) A
spade4.gif
(2 players)
I think he is calling here with a flush draw a good amount so just pot controlling. Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($5.71) A
club4.gif
(2 players)
Hero bets $4.08, CO raises to $17.75, Hero raises to $26.04 and is all-in, CO calls $4.82 and is all-in

Results: $50.85 pot ($2 rake)
Final Board: 4
spade4.gif
9
spade4.gif
2
heart4.gif
A
spade4.gif
A
club4.gif

Hero showed 9
club4.gif
9
diamond4.gif
and won $0.00 (-$25 net)
CO showed A
diamond4.gif
4
club4.gif
and won $48.85 ($23.85 net) WTFNOOOOOO

Two minutes later same table I get aces all in pre against AK and lose to runner runner straight.
two buy ins in 10 mins....welcome back to the tables....
 
John A

John A

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This is actually a really interesting point. I often get into the habit of just auto betting my strong hands without actually thinking things through properly. leakbuster shows my river aggression too high so since i'm not bluffing all that often i'm guessing it's just that i'm not checking to induce often enough vs aggressive players

Yeah, it actually is an important point to keep in mind on the river. I'm not a big advocate of check raising, but this is one of those spots you'd want to. As a general rule, if the calling range and betting range don't change much for your opponent, and there's lots of missed draws, then it's best to check/call or CR the river.
 
John A

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Take a break...hmmmfp I was actually itching to play last night after a very low volume week and the feeling like the fog of tilt has lifted.
Mottotom sweated with me for a few hours (thanks buddy) and I got back to basics, cut out the fancy plays and booked my best session of the month. It's very useful having someone sweat with you, its really helps keeping you focused when you are verbalising your reasoning.
I also cut down the number of tables and spent more time studying the opponents stats before acting. I also spent more time considering my bet sizing all of which has helped. After Tom left I logged off and had a break but felt I was playing so nicely I played for another hour and won another couple of buyins on top of the two won earlier So obviously feeling much better after this session.

That's good you have someone sweating you. That can help you stay grounded.

What I've been trying to emphasize to you is that as you're going through this learning curve to take the next poker jump, you're going to get over zealous, or make plays in the wrong spots. You'll eventually learn when to ratchet it up, or when to tone it down, but it takes time and practice. It just doesn't happen over night.

I had one student a while back that I was explaining the dynamics of a profitable squeeze. Even though I said, you need to manage frequency with your table image, or expect to get played back at. There's a balance between image and opportunity, and when you get into unbalanced areas of your game, you have to know how and when people are playing back at you. It's a quantum leap in poker if you will. I told him to take it slow, but of course he started having success right off the bat and then pushed it way too far because of his initial success and it spun his game out of control. Now if he had not had initial success, he probably would have just instantly dialed it back and cursed me for being a bad coach. But because of his initial success and new confidence, he just went bonkers.

Do you understand what I'm saying? You're on the right path, but you just need to fine tune how, when, why you're doing what you're doing, and then know how to manage your image as you make these changes.

You can of course keep a basic TAG game and win. And there's still plenty to learn within that framework as well.
 
John A

John A

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Hello all. I've been quietly following this thread for some time now as I have been attempting to transition to cash games from sng.

I just put down my latest poker book and I've been anxiously waiting to read this one. Big thanks to John A for giving the book away for free! I was equally surprised and impressed by that! Also, props on the HH converter tools, many of us in the USA would be lost without it!

So, like I said I'm just now transitioning and I don't have that much cash game experience but I'm eager to learn. So I'm going to give your book a read and I'm hoping it would be ok for me to jump into some conversations and maybe post some hands in the future?

Sorry missed this... yes, of course you're welcome to post hands. I'd encourage you to. If you have questions about the book, then post away. It's all a learning process here.
 
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mottotom27

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good spot to triple barrel?

BTN: 106.7 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 115.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BB: 113.9 BB (VPIP: 16.51, PFR: 13.46, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 331)
UTG: 366.2 BB (VPIP: 8.89, PFR: 7.74, 3Bet Preflop: 6.93, Hands: 862)
UTG+1: 215.3 BB (VPIP: 17.11, PFR: 11.84, 3Bet Preflop: 3.53, Hands: 459)
MP: 110.6 BB (VPIP: 15.58, PFR: 8.62, 3Bet Preflop: 3.55, Hands: 387)
MP+1: 223.5 BB (VPIP: 19.35, PFR: 10.75, 3Bet Preflop: 4.05, Hands: 186)
Hero (MP+2): 100.5 BB
CO: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 10.73, PFR: 8.22, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 438)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:diamond: K:diamond:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 4:heart: 5:spade: 8:diamond:
Hero bets 4.6 BB, BTN calls 4.6 BB

Turn: (16.7 BB, 2 players) 3:diamond:
Hero bets 11 BB, BTN calls 11 BB

River: (38.7 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
Hero bets 25 BB

villain 13/0 over 15 hands. picked up diamond draw on turn so with two overs to go with it i felt i had to barrel even though he won't be folding that often on that turn card. by the river i thought his range was capped at like JJ given he hadn't raised at any point (and it's a fairly coordinated board) so you think betting quite big to get him off most pairs when the scare card Q comes off is a good play?

also if he's a thinking player he should know that i can't have too many bluffs in my tripling range given backdoor diamonds is essentially the only missed draw, which should give him more incentive to fold. but is the average 10nl player capable of folding a hand like TT by the river?
 
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mottotom27

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here's another spot where i decided to triple...

PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 103.2 BB (VPIP: 10.53, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (BTN): 102.7 BB
SB: 76 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 30)
BB: 93 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 19.51, PFR: 19.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 43)
UTG+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 20)
MP: 139.6 BB (VPIP: 21.95, PFR: 14.63, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 41)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:heart: J:spade:

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) T:heart: 4:spade: 9:spade:
BB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, BB calls 4 BB

Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) K:diamond:
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River: (31.5 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
BB checks, Hero bets 22 BB

villain 17/12 over 43 hands, like it? again i feel his range is somewhat capped, he could have two pair or QJ, but can also have pair + draw that missed
 
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Figaroo2

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Ewweeee yuk Tom please don't ever play K9 it is the worst trap hand in the deck. If you flop a straight with TJQ you are crushed by AK. If you flop top pair you are dominated all day by all the other playable Kx hands. If you flop a pair of 9 its not too bad but tight players will usually play A9 as their lowest cut off (A8 being called the dead mans hand).
Doyle Brunson recommends never playing K9 which is enough for me. You can look up what he calls players that do.
Back to the hand itself he is calling in position with a very wide range. Why would you have a Q here? You are bluffing in a very dark tunnel here my friend. But as your hand is so weak and unlikely to win at showdown id bluff purely for that reason alone.
 
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mottotom27

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Ewweeee yuk Tom please don't ever play K9 it is the worst trap hand in the deck.

so on the button you fold K9s? i think on the cutoff too it's pretty much a snap open vs most players. i agree on the hijack it's kinda marginal and borderline but i will sometimes open it if there's a whale and/or if players are tight and passive left to act. here i felt the latter was true, everyone seemed tight with low 3bet % on CO and BB. i don't blame you for folding it but i still think my open is ok, it is definitely the worst suited king i will open from this position.

i recommend watching this video on opening ranges for more info, i found it pretty useful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FnXJe9hACeU
 
Figaroo2

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Ok let me rephrase...I suggest you rarely play K9 it unless its unopened and its late position and suited, at least the cutoff, and not until the button with unknowns.
Imo mp2 is too early and I can't see how you can have any reliable reads with the stats on show for the BUT and SB.
In the AJ hand I'm not sure you need to barrel the river as you will pick up the pot enough with your high cards when his draws have missed
 
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mottotom27

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Ok let me rephrase...I suggest you rarely play K9 it unless its unopened and its late position and suited, at least the cutoff, and not until the button with unknowns.
Imo mp2 is too early and I can't see how you can have any reliable reads with the stats on show for the BUT and SB.
In the AJ hand I'm not sure you need to barrel the river as you will pick up the pot enough with your high cards when his draws have missed

tbh i treat hijack as kind of an early late position as opposed to middle position, so i think you can use it to steal vs the right opponents. given that we know two of the players are definitely on the tight side and unlikely to 3bet us, and the other two over a small sample haven't shown any aggression, i feel like the open is reasonable. after all, we're opening KTs from the HJ and K9s is only one card different so it can't be that bad :) i'm also starting to loosen up a bit more, beginning to open hands like 89s and A9s from 4th position. i feel i need to get away from being a 13/10 nit to improve.

the AJ hand is interesting, not sure how much showdown value i have tbh. my reasoning at the time was i didn't want to let him showdown all his pair+gutter draws like JT, J9, QT. i also can't see too many draws he'll be defending from the blind and then calling twice with, since most flush draws make strong combo draws that he'll likely check/raise flop with. when he check/calls flop and turn his range is pretty capped imo i doubt he'd play a set like this, but still i think most of his range is ahead of ace high.
 
John A

John A

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villain 13/0 over 15 hands. picked up diamond draw on turn so with two overs to go with it i felt i had to barrel even though he won't be folding that often on that turn card. by the river i thought his range was capped at like JJ given he hadn't raised at any point (and it's a fairly coordinated board) so you think betting quite big to get him off most pairs when the scare card Q comes off is a good play?

also if he's a thinking player he should know that i can't have too many bluffs in my tripling range given backdoor diamonds is essentially the only missed draw, which should give him more incentive to fold. but is the average 10nl player capable of folding a hand like TT by the river?

Pretty marginal pre-flop, especially considering you don't have much info on your button.

I think flop and turn are fine. The problem is that by opening this hand and not having any info on your button, now you're asking the obvious question. When you're playing really good poker, you're thinking about all of this ahead of time, and avoiding putting yourself in these positions. Something to consider.

Your only chance is to bluff, and he seems like a tight player. It's probably pretty close to neutral to slightly - EV with the bet sizing. I think the sizing is ok. The big mystery in the equation is we don't know much about the button and you're OOP tripling with K high. :) I think we know where the main mistake was made here.
 
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