Pokertracker database - losing with pairs and vs pf raises

[GreenDaddy1]

I've noticed some interesting stats in my database and wonder how they compare to other people, potentially some leaks here I can look at.

Database is 66,782 hands at 2NL, mostly zoom. I've adjusted my game a lot over the past year, so I am sure I am not playing exactly the same now as I was in the earlier hands.

Regardless, it does seem to illustrate two potential issues:

1. Under Statistics tab, filtering by 'Facing Preflop Action', I can see that although I have won $139 by entering unopened pots, I have LOST $100 facing 1 raiser. I could literally have folded instead of getting involved vs a raiser every single time and be $100 better off. Crazy!

2. Under Results tab, filtering by 'Final Hands at Showdown', I can see I am getting absolutely thrashed at showdown with one pair hands, and also doing pretty badly with 'high card'. To an extent I'd expect this, but could it be suggesting I need to showdown less with these hands?


Three images attacked:
a) My graph over the 66k hands.
b) The Facing Preflop Action report with the graph focused on 'vs 1 raiser'.
c) Final hands at Showdown with the graph focused on 'one pair'.

Anyone have some experience analysing these sorts of stats have any thoughts on how useful these observations are?

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Just ran these out of curiosity. Pretty much the same story for me. The first report I'm not that concerned about. There are just too many variables to playing a pot facing one raise. Who was in position? Did we flat vs 3 bet, was it squeezed behind? Did someone jam? How multi way was it on average. Definitely an interesting question but I think we need to dig deeper to make any sense of it.

The last report is more interesting to me. I'm wondering if it means we should be going to showdown a lot less often with one pair or less. Polarizing more, bluff catching less, etc. I'll have to pay more attention to my showdown stats and make sure I'm not overcalling where I should be raising or folding. I would imagine that racing big pocket pairs with AK pre flop could have a very dramatic effect on these stats though so there may be some filtering that needs to be done here as well to get anything meaningful out if it. All of the times your AK misses when you get it in pre will be caught in this one category (High Card) for instance. That's probably enough to drag it into the abyss. The one pair category may reveal some leaks but I'd need to find the right filters to make it make more sense.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Very interesting discovery delving deeper into this. Filtering out all hands folded pre flop the result is very different!! Do that and facing preflop action shows profit everywhere. Reverse it and filter only for hands folded pre and it shows massive loss... like $500 or something crazy.

 

[MoCoSolo]

Thanks for the share! Always interesting to look at hand histories. Those Zoom games are tough to crack against the hardcore players. Hopefully you have stats on the players that raise against you to help out.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Very interesting discovery delving deeper into this. Filtering out all hands folded pre flop the result is very different!! Do that and facing preflop action shows profit everywhere. Reverse it and filter only for hands folded pre and it shows massive loss... like $500 or something crazy.

This makes sense. At a 6 max game 2 out of 6 hands you're in the blinds which is 1/3 of the time. All the times you folded to a raise and didn't defend your blinds should add up fast. Not necessarily a bad thing depending on frequencies.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Thanks for the share! Always interesting to look at hand histories. Those Zoom games are tough to crack against the hardcore players. Hopefully you have stats on the players that raise against you to help out.

Thanks. Stats on the player pools at 888 Snap add up quite fast, you're playing with as few as 60 off peak, about 100 quite often and up to 150 at peak. This is at both 2NL and 5NL.

I find the fast fold format much less likely to tilt me. And I love the volume I can get in two tabling. I have a 4BB/100 win rate with over 90k hands which not amazing but at least it is in profit.

With such a decent volume of hands it is now very interesting looking at Pokertracker's hand range tool as well.

 

[DevaCat]

Very interesting discovery delving deeper into this. Filtering out all hands folded pre flop the result is very different!! Do that and facing preflop action shows profit everywhere. Reverse it and filter only for hands folded pre and it shows massive loss... like $500 or something crazy.

I have 41k hands at Zoom NL10 in my current database, and the results are very much the same- profitable in all situations excluding paying the blinds. There's a column you can add in the report specifically for this: "My C Won w/o Blinds". That's slightly more accurate than where you folded preflop (because you might have 3-bet and then been 4-bet off your hand, or called and been squeezed from behind, both of which are player induced losses). In actuality, excluding the blinds, facing one raiser is the most profitable situation for me, running at over 30bb/100, a bit more than an unopened pot.

 

[BustedKing]

Somewhat off topic but those of you who are tracking stats for zoom what is your preflop all in equity for QQ+ ?

AA and QQ are performing well for me but I'm being annihilated with KK, over 100k hands I've got it all in pre 36 times and lost 50% which seems insane to me. QQ is winning 60% and both KK and QQ have greater than 50% average all in equity so it doesn't seem like the problem is villain's range being too tight. I've been through all my all in pre hands, not including less than half stacks, and there are plenty of AK, AQ and even a few worse hands that are getting it all in yet I'm still being destroyed.

Is this just variance or are other people seeing similar?

 

[DevaCat]

Somewhat off topic but those of you who are tracking stats for zoom what is your preflop all in equity for QQ+ ?

AA and QQ are performing well for me but I'm being annihilated with KK, over 100k hands I've got it all in pre 36 times and lost 50% which seems insane to me. QQ is winning 60% and both KK and QQ have greater than 50% average all in equity so it doesn't seem like the problem is villain's range being too tight. I've been through all my all in pre hands, not including less than half stacks, and there are plenty of AK, AQ and even a few worse hands that are getting it all in yet I'm still being destroyed.

Is this just variance or are other people seeing similar?

Variance. I'm running at over 3500bb/100 when getting it in pre-flop with QQ+ at Zoom NL10 on 888 across >30k hands dealt. I'm positive AIEV with all of QQ, KK and AA. I just wouldn't look at actual money won, as if your bankroll management is solid that really doesn't matter: it's the AIEV which says if you made good decisions or not. If that were negative, I'd be concerned, but if the cash outcome is negative then so what? You get it in good, they suck out. Stuff happens.

36 is a pretty small sample size when you're only a 69% chance to win against AK which, as you've said, there're plenty of in villains' ranges, along with presumably a lot of AA and some other stuff. If you had KK v AK 18 times, there is a 7% chance you'd be losing money post-rake over this sample size. Just some everyday runbad.