This is a discussion on Picking bluffs on the turn within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; Guys, can we share strategies on how you pick your bluffs on the turn. So, let's say we open from BTN, BB calls. Flop comes: |
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Picking bluffs on the turn |
#1
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Picking bluffs on the turn
Guys, can we share strategies on how you pick your bluffs on the turn. So, let's say we open from BTN, BB calls. Flop comes: A83 rainbow, we c-bet range with a small bet sizing, BB calls. Turn comes K. What hands would you bluff and why?
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#2
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In that situation, I bluff almost everything! It might well be a major leak in my game and I should probably put some time and effort into collecting the actual stats but, just from my own anecdotal experience in that situation, a double-barrel gets the blind to fold after the turn far more often than not. The amount that I bet (half-pot, two-thirds, full, etc) would vary depending on what I know of my opponent, such as if I bet half-pot on the turn will they recognise that as seeming value-y and hence are they more likely to fold, or will two-thirds be more likely to scare them off, etc. Of course, the check-raise from the BB does bite me in the bum every now and then in this kinda situation, but hey, c'est pokerrr!
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#3
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When we are bluffing we are allways telling a story. And the story got be good enough that our opponent will believe it.
So ask yourself what is my perceived range and what my opponents range. How hard does this board hit my range, how many value combos do I have/ how many bluffs should I have. Is my opponent over or undercalling etc.
For instance let's assume we had QJo and no FD possible on the Turn. Vs a vacuum at nl2 f.e. I would not bluff. Vs certain Villains stats I would again. Do we pick up equity and so on also plays a big role. Work with you're range and understand boardstructures, as you can't replicate every play on every board. As for balancing you're range that's solely villain depended. Do we have a CS with WtSD 40 or a nit with WtSD 20? And so on. There is no simple answer to this. People use solvers for things like these, and if you don't have the money to afford one you got to do it the old fashioned way with pen paper and lot of time.
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Poker is a game of skill against your opponents luck |
#4
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@Luepso,
well even though UTG tells a better story, BTNvsBB situation happens 10 times more often, that's why we need to analyze this spot. When I study I don't want to think exploitatively, I want to study how to have GTO-ish, balanced ranges. In this spot for example, on the turn I like overbet, but it's very hard to have enough bluffs.
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#5
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re: Poker & Picking bluffs on the turn
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#6
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If you play lower stakes keep your strategy simple but consisted. If you move up to nl50 you can worry about that. If you haven't been trying yet and are interested get something like a trial for pokerstove or snowie. But as said focus on range. Take you're range and run it against certain random flops /turn... Look up your hands in you're hm2/pt... GTO is not the strategy we win the most past a certain skilllevel. And as good players are few in between Maxev can boost our win rate much more than GTO. You only want to play that aggressive vs Regs. And z25 on stars is still beateble as biggest nit on earth. So set priorities
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Poker is a game of skill against your opponents luck |
#7
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Well, if you are going to run a bluff from the btn what does it matter which cards you have? Your bluff has little to do with your cards. It's about your read on the opponent, the nature of the board on the flop, stack sizes, your image, etc.
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#10
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re: Poker & Picking bluffs on the turn
In my opinion, giving bluffing strategies is very difficult, since they are things that we all use and it is like a secret of state ald art those tips the same opponents of the forum will know when you do or try to make a bluff now to make a bluff is just in some occasions because when you meet a person who makes many lanterns you will almost always lose in tournaments
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#11
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On K turn we have a lot of hands that we want to check back. Like Kx, 8x, weak A. As value bets we have A with good kicker and better. That means we have very few value bets, and if we bet all out air we will be ridiculously overbluffing. On this turn I like overbetting, because K gives us extra 3 sets to our range, so it improves our nuts advantage. We can have roughly 1 bluff for 1 value. I would say from top of my head we will have roughly 75 value hands and we should hat 75-80 bluffs. The problem is to pick these 75-80 bluffs, hence this thread.
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#12
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I bet any increase in nut potential, even picking up back door draws. I also bet more vs people who fold allot of the turn.
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If you don't know who the sucker is ... ... ... |
#13
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#14
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Holy Makeral
Yikes! Ill make sure to keep an eye out for that one!
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#15
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re: Poker & Picking bluffs on the turn
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#16
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I think I'm either firing a 30-40% barrel at that board or giving up. The K is a good card for villain if they called a cbet on the flop. They'll have a lot of Ax suited and the K is a pretty good card. The only hands you are folding out are 8x, which will probably fold to a small barrel.
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#17
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1. Well, in tournaments we have wider ranges, so in most cases we will have more value bets and we will need more bluffs. However, depending on the bet sizes, ratio of bluff to values should remain same. For pot bet for example it is roughly 1 to 1. However, this is deepr topic, because, before reaching flop it is better to think of your hands not as bluffs or values, or rather bet-calls and bet-folds. Because in some cases you bet fold with value hand and bet call with bluffs(for example with nut flush draw). Regardless, you never want to have more than 45% automatic bet-folds, otherwise villain would print money raising every hand. Also in tournaments we should use smaller bet sizings, because of icm. Icm implies that every cheap we earn is less valuable than every cheap we have(and risk to lose). Thus, it is better to play for smaller pots. Also, in tournaments, a lot of time we have 20-30-40bb stacks, where on turn or river villain can check-raise all in, so we need to bet narrower ranges in general. 2. I use 25% and 33% when I range bet. It is just simple way to simplify your complex strategy. Because, no way we can implement GTO strategy, and on some boards we simplify it by betting whole range, 100% of our holding. It works great really, because villains never raise or/and call enough. With small bets a lot of our second, third pairs become thin value bet, and our bluffs have great price. If we bet half pot, now suddenly our small pairs are not profitable bets and our bluffs are more expensive, which in the end means we can not range bet and we need to have complex mixed strategy.
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#18
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