Overpair vs big all in - is this foldable?

[GrammaKing]

I have AcAd here - no heart. Is this foldable? Or are we always calling?

PokerMelee.com Free turn-based Simul-Poker™
[ Preflop ‧ 7 players ‧ $1000 effective ]
UTG+2 folds
Lojack folds
Hijack folds
Cutoff raises to $23
Hero 3-bets to $74 with AcAd
Small Blind folds
Big Blind folds
Cutoff calls $51


Flop: 5h 7h 5d

Cutoff checks
Hero bets $82
Cutoff raises to $926 (all-in)

 

[fundiver199]

I am calling here. There are so few hands, that beat you, and so many hands, he might be going crazy with, which you are ahead off. 88-QQ, 7X, draws. Also if people flop a full house and even trips, they typically tend to play slower. These hands want to keep you in, not scare you away with a massive overbet jam.

 

[puzzlefish]

Without any more information about the villain, this would be a call but a very high variance spot only profitable over the very very long run.

 

[Igor Popadyk]

unfamiliar opponent? I'm for the call

 

[rj_montana]

This is not foldable without stats and even with 100s of hands classifying the villain as a super nit it's a tough fold. Who would just jam with 55 or 77 there. The line makes no sense for a nutted hand it looks like a steamy bluff or a guy who possibly has AA/KK himself

 

[jcxmendes]

various players involved in the hand and an all-in, but it would certainly lead!

 

[GrammaKing]

Thanks for all the replies! I agree the opponent matters a lot. Villain here is unlikely to jam with 88 -> QQ. He might have decided to play AA or KK tricky, can have certain combo draws, or a hand like A5s (though there is only one combo of this), 56s, 54s. I also agree he's not doing this with 77 or 55.

I agree with Puzzlefish - a high variance call. I ended up calling and he had 56s.

 

[TheDude6622]

The way over bet on this board makes no sense. It feels like KK, QQ, or JJ. It has to be a call in my opinion.

 

[TheDude6622]

Thanks for all the replies! I agree the opponent matters a lot. Villain here is unlikely to jam with 88 -> QQ. He might have decided to play AA or KK tricky, can have certain combo draws, or a hand like A5s (though there is only one combo of this), 56s, 54s. I also agree he's not doing this with 77 or 55.

I agree with Puzzlefish - a high variance call. I ended up calling and he had 56s.

That's a really ambitious call with the 56s after you 3bet so big. Just got to say nice hand and move on there. You want those awful calls to be made more often than not.

 

[fundiver199]

I assume, that blinds were 10/5, and in that case you could make your 3-bet a little bigger to cut down on his implied odds, if he want to make this kind of speculative call. 90$ would be completely reasonable.

 

[Gamebreakr25]

I have AcAd here - no heart. Is this foldable? Or are we always calling?

PokerMelee.com Free turn-based Simul-Poker™
[ Preflop ‧ 7 players ‧ $1000 effective ]
UTG+2 folds
Lojack folds
Hijack folds
Cutoff raises to $23
Hero 3-bets to $74 with AcAd
Small Blind folds
Big Blind folds
Cutoff calls $51


Flop: 5h 7h 5d

Cutoff checks
Hero bets $82
Cutoff raises to $926 (all-in)

Hi there. I'm definitely calling in that spot. AA is foldable after the flop for sure, but in this specific instance, I'm calling his all in shove. If the flop showed 3 hearts, it would be a little easier to fold since you don't have a heart, and could lose to a flush. Have a good day !!!

 

[TonyTwoCheeks]

I've seen this before. I had JJ on a 733 board. He limped-called my isolation raise. I was SB, he was UTG. I bet out the flop and he jammed; I called. The effective stack was $300 or so. He turned over 88 claiming "I thought you were on AK". I think that is an important factor, "What does he think you have?" JJ held up.​

Jamming with 77 or A5 doesn't make sense.

 

[CallmeFloppy]

I would call this as well. Only hands that I would be worried about are 55 and 77. Without other information I doubt my opponent is calling preflop with a 5 or 7 in their hand. I would put them on an overpair or AK.

 

[Vallet]

You had two choices:
1 Assume that he has a pocket pair and make a call.
2 Believe in fiction that he has a fiver or a full house.
Fiction happens sometimes. Players can enter the flop with any cards. You should always remember this.

 

[GrammaKing]

Thanks for all the replies and thoughts! I was able to compile relevant stats - does this change action for anyone?

PokerMelee.com Free turn-based Simul-Poker™
[ Preflop ‧ 7 players ‧ $1000 effective ]
UTG+2 folds 76.9% (269 / 350)
Lojack folds 72.2% (197 / 273)
Hijack folds 78.7% (155 / 197)
Cutoff raises to $23 28.4% (44 / 155)
Hero 3-bets to $74 with AcAd 20.5% (9 / 44)
Small Blind folds 88.9% (8 / 9)
Big Blind folds 87.5% (7 / 8)
Cutoff calls $51 71.4% (5 / 7)

[ Flop: 5h 7h 5d ‧ 2 players ‧ $163 pot ]
Cutoff checks 100% (5 / 5)
Hero bets $82 60% (3 / 5)
Cutoff raises to $926 (all-in) 33.3% (1 / 3)

 

[Tyler Finnimore]

In my opinion you will almost always have to call here cause not much beats you besides 77 i guess.

 

[gabryyyel31]

unfamiliar opponent? I'm for the call

Still to a call I would have been tempted to opt in that situation. :five:

 

[quick]

He jams a massive stack over your flop bet. As others said it's a bit odd to do with trips or a full house here, you'd think villain wants max value...then again you might assume villain is thinking. Likely villain is either a.) thinking you'll think (if they're thinking at all) they're trying to push you off your hand or b.) more likely "I haz trips and board is wet, must shove."

But others also point out that villain could have a lot of overpairs here, 88-AA are all reasonable here.

If I had no info on villain here I'd probably sigh call the shove with AA; he can only hold 5 possible cards that beat you on the flop (any or both remaining 5s, any or two 7s). If I had observed villain limping a wide range of hands (and observed them showing down with garbage trips and such) and playing loosely like this for a few hours I'd likely fold.

 

[xxxSSSxxx]

For me would be a call if player isn't too tight, then I would consider set on the flop.

 

[Vallet]

Thanks for all the replies and thoughts! I was able to compile relevant stats - does this change action for anyone?

PokerMelee.com Free turn-based Simul-Poker™
[ Preflop ‧ 7 players ‧ $1000 effective ]
UTG+2 folds 76.9% (269 / 350)
Lojack folds 72.2% (197 / 273)
Hijack folds 78.7% (155 / 197)
Cutoff raises to $23 28.4% (44 / 155)
Hero 3-bets to $74 with AcAd 20.5% (9 / 44)
Small Blind folds 88.9% (8 / 9)
Big Blind folds 87.5% (7 / 8)
Cutoff calls $51 71.4% (5 / 7)

[ Flop: 5h 7h 5d ‧ 2 players ‧ $163 pot ]
Cutoff checks 100% (5 / 5)
Hero bets $82 60% (3 / 5)
Cutoff raises to $926 (all-in) 33.3% (1 / 3)

The opponent does not need further strengthening on the turn and river. He wants to win now with a ready hand or a full house. I wouldn't risk everything without information.

 

[Vilgeoforc]

This is a heavy call if the player is unknown to you. The standard player would play check/raise strong draws on the flop, and also would protect my over pair. But not overbet pushem! Such a bet with 65 indicates either a very big stupidity, when the opponent is very afraid of the flush and so rudely protects his hand, or a very big trick, when the opponent already knows that in 3-bet pots you will not retreat with an overpara.

 

[Rahatis]

Easy call if he is a maniac.

 

[ga25x]

I feel like he had 88, 99, TT (even 66 or 44) or most likely 2 hearts. I've seen some plrs playing draws like that.
I've seen some1 playing with trips like that. Some times i make calls in spots like this even against my gut feeling just out of curiosity

 

[Fenix7]

Having an over pair is not a guarantee of winning. one must always act based on the information of the opponent whom we face in that Allin. Because it is not a guarantee, we can assume that he has the top pair of the Flop and that we are beating him, but in reality he could have connected to Set and we are well lost there. it all depends on the information of the opponents to how they have been playing their hands and their bets.

 

[jesuisjesus]

I think its the easiest call I have ever seen