My Non-Showdown winnings are plummeting 6 feet under.

[Daithi]

I'm looking for leaks in my game.

I know that red line should be hugging or be slightly under the dividing line. Mine is shooting right down, on a decent sample.

What comes to my mind are Cbet, 3bet. call-3bet, 4bet. What could it be?

My 3bet is 4. Which I am quite surprised it's so low. It suggests range JJ+KQ+. But it's not true at all. My range is quite polarized. I do 3bet hands like 89s, T9s, 79s. Rarely total garbage, should do that more, and sometimes A2s-A5s.

My 4bet is polarised too, I 4bet with JTs,89s sometimes.

But of course still my 4bets and 3bets are heavily on the top range side.


Flop Cbet 53%
I know it's on the lower side. I find Flop Cbet isn't as effective as it used to, people constantly call it and fight the Turn
Turn Cbet 40%

VPIP 21/15
AF 2 which is quite low. I am working on this. I am mixing in check-raises, and Cbet raises IP. Actually quite surprised my Aggression isn't around 3.5

And yes I will admit. I donk sometimes (24%), rarely in certain situations. I find it gets the job done. More as a blocking bet tbh, but it can take the pot down. Of course I utilize check-raise for that too.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2fqy8z9evzy8916/Results.png?dl=0

 

[Daithi]

My redine looks a lot like here, only worse. My red line is consuming my winnings. I thought I was running bad, but I must have major leaks somewhere.
www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/the-redline-article/amp

 

[scubed]

Are the small blind and big blind causing the red line to tank? Filter your position on the graph to compare the red line with the SB and BB filtered out (do not include SB/BB). Does your red line go down at a reasonable? Now, filter your graph to show ONLY SB/BB - does your red line look terrible?
My understanding of the red line is....

• Every time YOU fold before showdown your red line goes down
• Every time you bet and make your OPPONENT fold before showdown your red line goes up

If you see a huge difference between red line in the blinds versus all other positions than perhaps you should inspect your statistics in the blinds. Are you folding too much?

If there is not a huge difference, look into stealing the blinds more and ensuring that you aren't folding too many c-bets when you have called a raise preflop (are you calling 3bets preflop too much?). Finally, you might try value betting thinner if you think your opponent will fold.

I read on another forum that to get a break even red line or maybe even a positive one that you must be able to extract a marginal profit in the following thin spots

• Cold call profitably from the blinds.
• Steal with a high frequency, and with a positive win rate.
• Float in position profitably.
• 3 bet light profitably from the blinds.

Hope this info gives you some ideas of where to start looking to improve!

 

[Daithi]

Are the small blind and big blind causing the red line to tank? Filter your position on the graph to compare the red line with the SB and BB filtered out (do not include SB/BB). Does your red line go down at a reasonable? Now, filter your graph to show ONLY SB/BB - does your red line look terrible?
My understanding of the red line is....

• Every time YOU fold before showdown your red line goes down
• Every time you bet and make your OPPONENT fold before showdown your red line goes up

If you see a huge difference between red line in the blinds versus all other positions than perhaps you should inspect your statistics in the blinds. Are you folding too much?

If there is not a huge difference, look into stealing the blinds more and ensuring that you aren't folding too many c-bets when you have called a raise preflop (are you calling 3bets preflop too much?). Finally, you might try value betting thinner if you think your opponent will fold.

I read on another forum that to get a break even red line or maybe even a positive one that you must be able to extract a marginal profit in the following thin spots

• Cold call profitably from the blinds.
• Steal with a high frequency, and with a positive win rate.
• Float in position profitably.
• 3 bet light profitably from the blinds.

Hope this info gives you some ideas of where to start looking to improve!

Yes. It definitely does. I was hoping for some filter tips. I will check it out tomorrow when at a PC. Thanks.

 

[Daithi]

Are the small blind and big blind causing the red line to tank?

You genius ya! I would kiss ya if you were over here! Check this....
EP, MP, LP,
https://www.dropbox.com/s/xt004a8bnwqdda6/NOn Blinds.png?dl=0

Blinds
https://www.dropbox.com/s/c1w508be6biispd/Blinds.png?dl=0

 

[scubed]

You genius ya! I would kiss ya if you were over here! Check this....

That is great! Improve your play from the blinds and that red line will get more happy! :handkiss:

 

[Daithi]

That is great! Improve your play from the blinds and that red line will get more happy! :handkiss:

Just checked each blind individually. I am getting wrecked in both, but more in BB.

 

[Daithi]

Still can't figure out where exactly is the problem. Biggest downward slopes are when in the Blinds and the VPIP is off, so the Blinds themselves are really bringing my winrate down. Another one about a quarter as bad was when I am flatting from the Blinds. Which kinda sucks, as I don't really enjoy making the pot big OOP. But I guess today's game requires it.

And From the Blinds partaking in Single Raised pots is just downward.

I guess today's game is about defending Blinds...

 

[Figaroo2]

Most winning players still lose from the blinds. Decent rates to aim for are -30bb/100 hands in the BB and half that -15 in the SB. Try to call less in the blinds that is the main leak. If you are playing 6 max then 4% 3betting is way to nitty, it should be at least double that and even more so versus stealers. Put steal% into your hud and 3bet players with higher than 35% steal. Then barrel their asses, their weak ranges usually can't stand a 2nd barrel. High 3betting protects you from steals. Try to think 3bet or fold player dependent. Calling oop with no initiative is burning money.

 

[Alucard]

Put steal% into your hud and 3bet players with higher than 35% steal. Then barrel their asses,

My steal is around 55-60%

 

[honeycrush]

Most winning players still lose from the blinds. Decent rates to aim for are -30bb/100 hands in the BB and half that -15 in the SB. Try to call less in the blinds that is the main leak. If you are playing 6 max then 4% 3betting is way to nitty, it should be at least double that and even more so versus stealers. Put steal% into your hud and 3bet players with higher than 35% steal. Then barrel their asses, their weak ranges usually can't stand a 2nd barrel. High 3betting protects you from steals. Try to think 3bet or fold player dependent. Calling oop with no initiative is burning money.

I agree with the above. I'm only losing 4bb/100 from the SB over more than 160,000 hands. I just checked my 3b from SB and it is 7.5%. This might be high but as the SB is the very worst position to play from, I usually fold or 3b. I do however defend my BB often. If the flop is favourable to our range in the BB, we can donk or check-raise.

I agree with what you say about players not respecting Cbets these days but yours is still too low. I would try to up it to at least 60%.

My red line has improved a lot since I first started playing and one of my leaks was the river. Have you checked river aggression and river call efficiency? If your river aggression is too low then you may be missing spots to bet where your opponent has a weak holding and is likely to fold. If your river call efficiency is too high then you might be folding hands that could win at showdown. For reference an ideal river aggression range is 21-28% (from LeakBuster) and river call efficiency should be higher than 1 (1 is breakeven). 1.5 is ideal but anything over 3 means you are calling only with the nuts.

Hope this helps. Good luck!

 

[Daithi]

Great and very informative replies HoneyCrush and Figaro. Will check it out over the weekend.

 

[braveslice]

Wide 3bet alone might have a negative effect to redline. Typically aggressive players have wide 3bet, but the red line comes when they make villain to fold on later streets or they can read the play and survive to showdown. If light 3bet gets a fold that is redline up 4.5bb per case, if 3bet gets called and we lose, the redline loses extra 10bb per case.

 

[scubed]

I stumbled on an article by BlackRain79 today that addresses this topic. Perform a Google search with the term "fix your red line." The results should include an article by BlackRain79 called Fixing Your Red Line: 9 Simple Ways to Increase Your Non-Showdown Winnings

 

[TheNutz4You]

Blinds are a good chunk of your redline loses. Good cash players can be +bb/100 in the SB, but I do not know anyone that has a +bb/100 in the BB over a large sample. 4% 3bet just isn't going to cut it in 6max by a long shot, full ring, that isn't as bad, but still not near enough 3betting. Red line is largely based on your aggression, and if your only 3betting 4%, cbetting only 50ish% on the flop and only double barreling the turn 40% with a 2 AF, the RL will never be where you want it to be.

 

[Ahoy]

Hey man, I dont know if this is still a problem for you as the thread is a bit older, but my two cents:

My first and most important piece of adice (which I didnt follow and wasted almost 8 months of progress because of this) is DONT GET LOCKED ON STATS !!!

Ignore stats. Dont analyse your own stats man. It makes no sense whatsoever, because everybody will tell you something different, where you should be "aiming for" which is a complete garbage. The player pool is heavily unbalanced and you should be looking to exploit every single player differently, based on their obvious imbalances.

Your red line problem looks like the typical problem with aggression or not bluffing whatsoever.

1. Against players who you see that overfold to 3bets (esp. the nitty regs - like you seem to be) bluff 3BET EXCESSIVELY. Esp. blocker range thus Ax

2. 3bet a lot from SB and BB against late position opens, again, against COMPETENT players who have big fold to 3bet stat

3. Cbet a bit more, doublebarrel favorable turns, esp. on low flops like 2 4 8 people tend to float a bit too much and then give up on most turns

4. Adjust your Cbet sizing

5. Exploit fish by NEVER 3BET BLUFFING THEM

6. Exploit fish by BETTING HUGE with your value hands

7. Play your draws passively VS fish and calling stations

8. Play your draws aggressively against competent players esp. the passive ones and scared ones

9. Bluff nitty regs on favorable runouts, if the SPR is not too low and if you know they are capable of folding on scarecard runouts (your hand strength doesnt matter)

GL

 

[TheNutz4You]

Hey man, I dont know if this is still a problem for you as the thread is a bit older, but my two cents:

My first and most important piece of adice (which I didnt follow and wasted almost 8 months of progress because of this) is DONT GET LOCKED ON STATS !!!

Ignore stats. Dont analyse your own stats man. It makes no sense whatsoever, because everybody will tell you something different, where you should be "aiming for" which is a complete garbage. The player pool is heavily unbalanced and you should be looking to exploit every single player differently, based on their obvious imbalances.

Your red line problem looks like the typical problem with aggression or not bluffing whatsoever.

1. Against players who you see that overfold to 3bets (esp. the nitty regs - like you seem to be) BLUFF 3BET EXCESSIVELY. Esp. blocker range thus Ax

2. 3bet a lot from SB and BB against late position opens, again, against COMPETENT players who have big fold to 3bet stat

3. Cbet a bit more, doublebarrel favorable turns, esp. on low flops like 2 4 8 people tend to float a bit too much and then give up on most turns

4. Adjust your Cbet sizing

5. Exploit fish by NEVER 3BET BLUFFING THEM

6. Exploit fish by BETTING HUGE with your value hands

7. Play your draws passively VS fish and calling stations

8. Play your draws aggressively against competent players esp. the passive ones and scared ones

9. Bluff nitty regs on favorable runouts, if the SPR is not too low and if you know they are capable of folding on scarecard runouts (your hand strength doesnt matter)

GL

Outstanding post here, on point with great info, well done

 

[braveslice]

Yes. It definitely does. I was hoping for some filter tips. I will check it out tomorrow when at a PC. Thanks.

One basic one should be stats by position. That should tell a lot. Only select hands that are 'current' in a sense ie. that same level, about the same strat.

 

[Daithi]

Hey man, I dont know if this is still a problem for you as the thread is a bit older, but my two cents:

My first and most important piece of adice (which I didnt follow and wasted almost 8 months of progress because of this) is DONT GET LOCKED ON STATS !!!

Ignore stats. Dont analyse your own stats man. It makes no sense whatsoever, because everybody will tell you something different, where you should be "aiming for" which is a complete garbage. The player pool is heavily unbalanced and you should be looking to exploit every single player differently, based on their obvious imbalances.

Your red line problem looks like the typical problem with aggression or not bluffing whatsoever.

1. Against players who you see that overfold to 3bets (esp. the nitty regs - like you seem to be) BLUFF 3BET EXCESSIVELY. Esp. blocker range thus Ax

2. 3bet a lot from SB and BB against late position opens, again, against COMPETENT players who have big fold to 3bet stat

3. Cbet a bit more, doublebarrel favorable turns, esp. on low flops like 2 4 8 people tend to float a bit too much and then give up on most turns

4. Adjust your Cbet sizing

5. Exploit fish by NEVER 3BET BLUFFING THEM

6. Exploit fish by BETTING HUGE with your value hands

7. Play your draws passively VS fish and calling stations

8. Play your draws aggressively against competent players esp. the passive ones and scared ones

9. Bluff nitty regs on favorable runouts, if the SPR is not too low and if you know they are capable of folding on scarecard runouts (your hand strength doesnt matter)

GL

Thanks for the reply.

I don't think I am that nitty actually. My last 6,000 hands my profile is
|VPIP 22|PFR 16.3|3Bet 6.8|Fold3bet 50.4|Agg. 2.3| Steal 32| My BTN stats 27/21

I think I need to widen my BTN range a bit, probably by 10%

My leak was not defending blinds and 3 betting enough. I am slowly improving on that now. party poker has launched this new feature. It's called Virtual Coach. It's basically leak buster. Very handy. Helped me find my my leaks.

But yeah I need to Cbet a bit more and fold a small bit less to 3bets

 

[Ahoy]

Thanks for the reply.

I don't think I am that nitty actually. My last 6,000 hands my profile is
|VPIP 22|PFR 16.3|3Bet 6.8|Fold3bet 50.4|Agg. 2.3| Steal 32| My BTN stats 27/21

I think I need to widen my BTN range a bit, probably by 10%

My leak was not defending blinds and 3 betting enough. I am slowly improving on that now. Party Poker has launched this new feature. It's called Virtual Coach. It's basically leak buster. Very handy. Helped me find my my leaks.

But yeah I need to Cbet a bit more and fold a small bit less to 3bets

Yea thats why I said that you should throw all the stats outta window... They dont matter.
You are probably too tight from BTN and CO (and I mean WAY too tight) against some opponents in the blinds you can open 100% of your hands profitably.

 

[Daithi]

Yea thats why I said that you should throw all the stats outta window... They dont matter.
You are probably too tight from BTN and CO (and I mean WAY too tight) against some opponents in the blinds you can open 100% of your hands profitably.

Oh come on, they do matter. #1 they just provided a detailed overview of my tendencies #2 they provide overview of other players' tendencies.

Of course I can end up all-in preflop with KK against a dude with a high 3bet and 4bet stat where he shows up with AA. Even though numbers suggest low likelihood. But numbers tell a lot.

But I agree with you that you adjust your play, which I do a long time.

But generally I find your post beneficial and informative. Thank you.

 

[Ahoy]

Oh come on, they do matter. #1 they just provided a detailed overview of my tendencies #2 they provide overview of other players' tendencies.

Of course I can end up all-in preflop with KK against a dude with a high 3bet and 4bet stat where he shows up with AA. Even though numbers suggest low likelihood. But numbers tell a lot.

But I agree with you that you adjust your play, which I do a long time.

But generally I find your post beneficial and informative. Thank you.

For sure they have a merit and informative value but what I was trying to say is that we are playing microstakes here. Its not rocket science. New players (me included) tend to heavily fixate their thought process towards their statistics which is not optimal. You dont have to be playing "optimally" by some numbers to crush. Thats absolutely misleading.

The number one thing I would recommend is always use all VALID PROVIDED DATA that you can during your gameplay. For example if you are facing a simple or complicated decision, always consider datapoints. For example, position, HUD stats, range vs range etc

These are things that you can consciously affect. You cant consciously affect the numbers that you see in your database. That is just a display of what you are doing but it cant be and shouldnt be (imo) bothering you during your game

PS: I was talking about your own personal statistic numbers and frequencies as unimportant. The numbers provided by your HUD on your opponents are of course important and should be used

 

[Ahoy]

Also OP, if you are playing on partypoker there are anonymous tables which is a big disadvantage to regulars like you. I really suggest you moving your BR elsewhere, somewhere you can use your HUD as that provides some really good datapoints on which you can base your decisions.

 

[Daithi]

These are things that you can consciously affect. You cant consciously affect the numbers that you see in your database. That is just a display of what you are doing but it cant be and shouldnt be (imo) bothering you during your game

I have to disagree with this. But to clarify, if we are talking about hero's session stats. Yes, sure. I don't mold my gameplay into the stats. You don't say "Hmm....my 3bet is low the past 40 hands, I must 3bet now". I agree with you 100%. But overall in my aggregate stats if I see that my 3bet is low. I must change my game. I must make a decision as to what do I add into my 3bet range and vs what players/situations/and position. Then I go to the tables, and when premeditated situation arises I apply the move. This will change my 3bet stat.
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
In a nutshell, I am not changing my 3 bet stat randomly only because it looks that it needs to be modified at the very moment. But I am changing my gameplay long-term and the stat will reflect respectively. I guess some players want to play their sessions into their stats. And perhaps that's what you meant when you said the numbers don't matter. But that's not what we're talking about here. The stats are reflection of long term play and strategy. And yes the numbers (not session stats) absolutely do matter.
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
About your other point regarding anonymous tables. Yes, that is something I have been thinking about a lot. Let's have a look at some of the pros and cons of playing at Party poker. Let's start with the disadvantages.

• You can't select a seat
• Players are anonymous until you're dealt in a hand
• Basically you can only collect session stats

Some of the advantages are:

• Without a doubt the rakeback. You can get 20%+ rakeback in cash weekly
• They have decent missions that actually reward
• Much fishier player pool than PokerStars for example.

I have come to realise that the session stats are generally enough to to get you by. 3bet stats show quite quickly, 40 ish hands. Basic profiles start to show over 20 hands. Yes, it isn't complete but the average player skill is quite low. I am okay with it. The rakeback helps so much. I am at a breaking point with my winrate right now, yet I made over 100$ just from rakeback and missions. On greedy stars you'd get a sweet fack'all.
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]I'm quite happy at party at the moment. Or am I missing out on something?..

 

[Ahoy]

I have to disagree with this. But to clarify, if we are talking about hero's session stats. Yes, sure. I don't mold my gameplay into the stats. You don't say "Hmm....my 3bet is low the past 40 hands, I must 3bet now". I agree with you 100%. But overall in my aggregate stats if I see that my 3bet is low. I must change my game. I must make a decision as to what do I add into my 3bet range and vs what players/situations/and position. Then I go to the tables, and when premeditated situation arises I apply the move. This will change my 3bet stat.
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
In a nutshell, I am not changing my 3 bet stat randomly only because it looks that it needs to be modified at the very moment. But I am changing my gameplay long-term and the stat will reflect respectively. I guess some players want to play their sessions into their stats. And perhaps that's what you meant when you said the numbers don't matter. But that's not what we're talking about here. The stats are reflection of long term play and strategy. And yes the numbers (not session stats) absolutely do matter.
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
About your other point regarding anonymous tables. Yes, that is something I have been thinking about a lot. Let's have a look at some of the pros and cons of playing at Party poker. Let's start with the disadvantages.

• You can't select a seat
• Players are anonymous until you're dealt in a hand
• Basically you can only collect session stats

Some of the advantages are:

• Without a doubt the rakeback. You can get 20%+ rakeback in cash weekly
• They have decent missions that actually reward
• Much fishier player pool than PokerStars for example.

I have come to realise that the session stats are generally enough to to get you by. 3bet stats show quite quickly, 40 ish hands. Basic profiles start to show over 20 hands. Yes, it isn't complete but the average player skill is quite low. I am okay with it. The rakeback helps so much. I am at a breaking point with my winrate right now, yet I made over 100$ just from rakeback and missions. On greedy stars you'd get a sweet fack'all.
[FONT=Lato, sans-serif]
[/FONT]I'm quite happy at party at the moment. Or am I missing out on something?..

Party/Stars obvious and I agree.

To the stats: no I didnt mean it session wise.

I will try to show you where I am aiming my thoughts right.

You said that after a decent sample you see that your 3bet stat is low so you start 3betting more... I get it okay.
But tell me, how do you define LOW? or TOO MUCH?
IT all comes down to how others are playing. If for example general playerpool tendency is to overcall 3bets you are not going to be 3betting them with your bluffs right? Because it makes no sense.
Similar if somebody fold to 3bet is 95% you are gonna 3bet him a lot lot wider because you print money right?

That being said, your stats should be affected based on what players you are playing against, thus making them unimportant.