New Online Bankroll Theory

[GreenJigster]

So I started using correct and proper bankroll management last week after 6 months of serious play.

Before my initial deposit was about $150 and I played 10NL so 10 BI’s obviously. And this was after busting a few times. I was winning at a pretty decent rate (can’t really use the term winrate due to sample size and I wasn’t using any type of tracker. But I had an edge on a lot of the competition at that stake). I binked a micro stakes tournament and used my 10 BI model up to 25 NL. Between that and 20 dollar Heads Up Sit N Go’s it did not take me long to lose it all back. Every single river was a miracle card for my opponent it seemed like. So I went bust again.

And this time around I have about $140 in the roll and I am playing slightly over rolled at 2NL. So around 70 BI for cash games. And I have noticed that when I am rolled for whatever game I’m playing I run so much better. Could be coincidence for sure. But even today at the $5 buy in Heads Up Sit N Goes I couldn’t catch a break! Most people recommend 20-40 for those types of games and I was right around 30, but I still ran awful. Being as it was a sit n go tournament I had to get in there with sub par hands and a lot of those hands my opponent had it. Even my best bluffs didn’t get through because villain had TP or better.

So I step down to the 2 NL Heads Up a
Game and I ran like the sun. I intend to play over rolled for everything. It’s hard to get excited about playing a $50 GTD tournament but at least the risk of ruin is low. I was able to build a roll fast with 10 BI’s and lose it fast too. But now I believe that if you have a proper roll you make your own luck. What are your guys thoughts?

 

[puzzlefish]

You have a hypothesis. Now track it over a significant number of days/hours and/or games to see if it's actually happening or if variance eats up your proposed hypothesis.

 

[bigpappa325]

You have a hypothesis. Now track it over a significant number of days/hours and/or games to see if it's actually happening or if variance eats up your proposed hypothesis.

I see your skeptical of online.

I am retired and don't like all the extra stuff on the screen so my son tracks things i just don't use it. But i complain allot but its poker and poker is about making profit off that 2 to 5% of times when you win. I play live every Saturday 15/30 800 buy in. I'm rolled about 27 grand(well below 100bb but have been for years) but its because i now split winning and play with it since you cant take it with you. i do ok.

Now my son has pulled up some interesting things that seem to be bothering me. All my top pocket pairs hit according as they should. Over two years my aces are only winning just over 70%. Kings are around 65%. Low yes and I'm very aggressive so i get a lot of folds pre flop. So its disturbing to see the win rate. But they are just pairs.

The two things I'm having difficulty accepting is my so called flip 45 to 55% have only won 26% of the time.
My biggest concern is my hands that I'm 80% or better to win after flop are only winning 49%. Both of these are long term statistics that shows why I'm not profiting. I know only 2.4 million hands isn't a great number but opens the mind for sure.

Did you have similar issues if you don't mind i ask? Trying to stay positive but its becoming difficult. I don't mind being called a rigtard. It just shows I'm still thinking and not simulating.

thanks

 

[puzzlefish]

I see your skeptical of online.

I am retired and don't like all the extra stuff on the screen so my son tracks things i just don't use it. But i complain allot but its poker and poker is about making profit off that 2 to 5% of times when you win. I play live every Saturday 15/30 800 buy in. I'm rolled about 27 grand(well below 100bb but have been for years) but its because i now split winning and play with it since you cant take it with you. i do ok.

Now my son has pulled up some interesting things that seem to be bothering me. All my top pocket pairs hit according as they should. Over two years my aces are only winning just over 70%. Kings are around 65%. Low yes and I'm very aggressive so i get a lot of folds pre flop. So its disturbing to see the win rate. But they are just pairs.

The two things I'm having difficulty accepting is my so called flip 45 to 55% have only won 26% of the time.
My biggest concern is my hands that I'm 80% or better to win after flop are only winning 49%. Both of these are long term statistics that shows why I'm not profiting. I know only 2.4 million hands isn't a great number but opens the mind for sure.

Did you have similar issues if you don't mind i ask? Trying to stay positive but its becoming difficult. I don't mind being called a rigtard. It just shows I'm still thinking and not simulating.

thanks

I don't think I have as many stats to call out as you do, but yes I don't trust online poker. Even with 2.4 million hands, you will still have people say that it is a small sample size and that even if it wasn't, it is possible to just be an unlucky player. There's no light at the end of the tunnel for this approach to the problem. I would suggest stop looking at your stats and start looking at what's happening in your games. At this point I can't say with any confidence whether what is happening is due to rigging, collusion, or some kind of combination, but it's not normal poker. That's why I just encourage people to test their ideas and try to figure it (online poker) out.

 

[bigpappa325]

I don't think I have as many stats to call out as you do, but yes I don't trust online poker. Even with 2.4 million hands, you will still have people say that it is a small sample size and that even if it wasn't, it is possible to just be an unlucky player. There's no light at the end of the tunnel for this approach to the problem. I would suggest stop looking at your stats and start looking at what's happening in your games. At this point I can't say with any confidence whether what is happening is due to rigging, collusion, or some kind of combination, but it's not normal poker. That's why I just encourage people to test their ideas and try to figure it (online poker) out.

Twenty years i have played live poker. Agreement was it never came out of family funds. Busted my roll twice many years ago. Guys try and get me to go up in stakes to leave them alone. Online after a grand i realize there's some issues. Doesn't matter what site i try its ugly. I realize i cant use body language but odds should still work out the same. In two days kings have lost 24 times out of 25. I know its just a pair. but odd.
Im old and if it looks like crap and smells like crap i don't need to step in it to come to the conclusion its crap. have a good day sir

 

[GreenJigster]

Twenty years i have played live poker. Agreement was it never came out of family funds. Busted my roll twice many years ago. Guys try and get me to go up in stakes to leave them alone. Online after a grand i realize there's some issues. Doesn't matter what site i try its ugly. I realize i cant use body language but odds should still work out the same. In two days kings have lost 24 times out of 25. I know its just a pair. but odd.
Im old and if it looks like crap and smells like crap i don't need to step in it to come to the conclusion its crap. have a good day sir

Ya without trying to sound like a rigtard I was suggesting that variance might be in your favor if you are over rolled.

 

[bigpappa325]

Ya without trying to sound like a rigtard I was suggesting that variance might be in your favor if you are over rolled.

I get it. ooo I'm a rigtard. My son always called me that until we started filtering past hands. Its all good now. i play for entertainment. get enough from free stuff to stay to busy. i also have my Saturdays.

 

[pentazepam]

To have a relative big bankroll can be a psychological advantage.

You obviously have a lower risk of losing it all (if you can compete and win at the stake you are playing).

That can mean that you play more relaxed and therefore better.

Less risk of tilt also (and if you tilt it hurts your roll less).

So maybe you win more because you feel more secure, calm and confident.

 

[Reh1980]

Bankroll

I would recommend playing tournaments that your bankroll was 100 bbs so it would not break good luck.

 

[PLAYFUL1]

I prefer a big bankroll to a smaller bankroll

 

[GreenJigster]

To have a relative big bankroll can be a psychological advantage.

You obviously have a lower risk of losing it all (if you can compete and win at the stake you are playing).

That can mean that you play more relaxed and therefore better.

Less risk of tilt also (and if you tilt it hurts your roll less).

So maybe you win more because you feel more secure, calm and confident.

True, the other day I caught myself saying “did my Kings just get cracked by Jacks??” And kinda went oh well. I was up like 4BI’s and some guy joined the table, raised from the BTN I’m in the SB, looks like a squeeze to me and my 3bet looks like “I’m not getting squeezed mr. dealer” so he shoves I call. He flopped a set. Only thing that tilted me was I never win all ins with Jacks lol but ya I feel I have an edge in 2NL so I wasn’t tilting. At a higher stake I would’ve been thinking “Man +EV=-bankroll etc.” so you’re definitely right.

 

[GreenJigster]

I get it. ooo I'm a rigtard. My son always called me that until we started filtering past hands. Its all good now. i play for entertainment. get enough from free stuff to stay to busy. i also have my Saturdays.

Do you play any live? I feel live is more profitable. It’s an hour and a half drive for me to play live so it’s a rarity for me.

 

[bigpappa325]

Do you play any live? I feel live is more profitable. It’s an hour and a half drive for me to play live so it’s a rarity for me.

i play live every Saturday about 45 minutes away from home. I play 15/30 800 buy in and just found out out my BR is way under funded compared to these guys. But i have used 25 bb as my BR for years. At 27 grand i'm at 33 BB but in no hurry to move up. Just comfortable i guess. Starting to lose that spark i once had. Having a kid in middle school and being retired has me wore out just keeping up with her. Don't know how the wife did it alone all those years i traveled for work. Sorry i babbled to much.

 

[Ryan Laplante]

So I started using correct and proper bankroll management last week after 6 months of serious play.

Before my initial deposit was about $150 and I played 10NL so 10 BI’s obviously. And this was after busting a few times. I was winning at a pretty decent rate (can’t really use the term winrate due to sample size and I wasn’t using any type of tracker. But I had an edge on a lot of the competition at that stake). I binked a micro stakes tournament and used my 10 BI model up to 25 NL. Between that and 20 dollar Heads Up Sit N Go’s it did not take me long to lose it all back. Every single river was a miracle card for my opponent it seemed like. So I went bust again.

And this time around I have about $140 in the roll and I am playing slightly over rolled at 2NL. So around 70 BI for cash games. And I have noticed that when I am rolled for whatever game I’m playing I run so much better. Could be coincidence for sure. But even today at the $5 buy in Heads Up Sit N Goes I couldn’t catch a break! Most people recommend 20-40 for those types of games and I was right around 30, but I still ran awful. Being as it was a sit n go tournament I had to get in there with sub par hands and a lot of those hands my opponent had it. Even my best bluffs didn’t get through because villain had TP or better.

So I step down to the 2 NL Heads Up a
Game and I ran like the sun. I intend to play over rolled for everything. It’s hard to get excited about playing a $50 GTD tournament but at least the risk of ruin is low. I was able to build a roll fast with 10 BI’s and lose it fast too. But now I believe that if you have a proper roll you make your own luck. What are your guys thoughts?

Bankroll management is key to making $$.

If you don't use it you will go broke!

 

[djasset]

BR management is def my biggest problem... it always has been, i never learn!

 

[charliej]

If you are not bankrolled properly, you will pass up chances to play hands that perhaps you should out of fear of losing.