Need opinion on hero call

[TonyTwoCheeks]

The following hand is $1-$2 NL at Harrah's in Cherokee, NC. Wednesday 3pm


Hero stack: $210 (

I didn't play a hand for the first three orbits. In 4th orbit, I won a small pot without showdown and opened a hand and then folded to A-high flop with donk bet into two players.)​

Villain stack: $200 (Super aggro, middle-aged Asian male. I estimate his VPIP at 50% and PFR 25-30% and he knew what he was doing. Also, I noticed him always topping his stack off to ensure he had $200 max)

*** PRE-FLOP ***
UTG: folds
UTG+1 (V): limps $2
Lo-Jack: limps $2
Hi-Jack (H): bets $15 with [ ] (Normal opens are between $6-$11.)
Cutoff: folds
Button: folds
Small Blind: folds
Big Blind: folds
UTG+1: calls $13
Lo-Jack: folds
Pot Size: $32

*** FLOP *** [ ]
UTG+1: checks
Hero: bets $20 (63% pot) (V has been way wide on all other hands)
UTG+1: calls $20
Pot Size: $72

*** TURN *** [ ]
UTG+1: checks
Hero: bets $50 (69% pot) (I hold no diamonds, so flush draws are a real possibility. So I keep telling my story that I have a big pair.)
UTG+1: calls $50 (As he's counting out calling chips , the only thought going through my head was "He's gonna shove the river no matter what comes.")
Pot Size: $172

*** RIVER *** [ ]
UTG+1: insta-shoves for $126 (73% pot)
Hero: calls $126 (I did not consider 89 as a possibility as I didn't believe he cared what the river was. The only thing I thought about was how many different fives he could have. I almost folded just due to the size. In the end, I went with the live read and was ready to reload.)
Pot Size: $424


Villain shows

My thinking was that most two pair combinations would have check raised the flop or turn. So it was the turned straight or a bluff. I did briefly consider T7 as a possible holding. Opinions welcomed.

 

[Gutshot90]

Nice read sir, i dont play live so i dont know about the overall ability of the players on this limit, but i would have checked behind the turn and then probably just call his river bet depending on his sizing.

 

[bellicoso]

I like the aggression here. Very well done. And awesome job knowing your opponent! I hope you continue to have many of these kinds of successes. I'm always envious of live players and their abilities at the table. Again, great job and best to you going forward!

 

[c0rnBr34d]

This board crushes a 50% VPIP range. I check back turn and probably call a reasonable river bet. In general I don't think we want to be bloating the pot with Ace high here unless we are reasonably certain we are getting folds. Against described V I think we are getting looked up on the turn quite often.

River is tough but since the pot is so large it's close. If V can have T8 here he can also have 89dd, T7, or a set of 3s. I would also expect 2 pair to raise before the river but if Hero appears tight V may not be concerned with the flush and straight draws as much and put us on over pairs and slow play a set or a flopped top two with some frequency. I think V made a bad call pre and a bad flop call but once he has two overs and a double gutter on the turn I don't blame him for continuing to peel. In fact he should probably have check raised all in on the turn and taken it down. V does have some bluffs we can catch with missed diamonds or a hand like 78, or T8 but it's still a gross spot. After only 4 orbits this is probably a fold OTR without live reads. If you have a read I don't mind a bluff catch at some frequency. 4 orbits is only 35 hands or so though. I think we were a little hasty to play for stacks with this limited of a read and only TPTK. I think we avoid this spot by checking back turn. If he can still overbet jam river he wins but if he bets pot or less we can more profitably bluff catch as we don't need to be right as often.

 

[TonyTwoCheeks]

Thank you for that analysis. Despite doubling up, I didn't like the hand and didn't like relying 100% on a live read. Checking the turn seems safer.

I just saw the following video from Bart Hanson that is extremely relevant to this hand. It has to do with bet pacing (a.k.a. insta-shove).