Middle pairs utg

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Gorblimey

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180 big blinds in a $5-$10 NLH full table. Hero has pocket 99 and raises to $50 and only a middle position player calls. Flop is KT9 semi suited. Hero overbets the pot to $155 and villain calls. Turn is off suit 8. Hero bets half the pot and gets called. River is off suit deuce. Check and villain shoves for all Hero's stack. I'm a deer in the headlights. Is this snap fold? I don't have a read on this villain.
 
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Kmason531

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Why such a big raise pre? On the flop there is no benefit to an overbet. You don't have nearly enough of an advantage in ranges to overbet here. MP definitely has TT, KTs, T9s, and QJs in his range. You only want to use flop overbets when you have a huge advantage at the top of the ranges. On this board you still have a decent advantage since you have AA/KK/AK that MP shouldn't have so I think that calls for a 2/3-3/4 pot bet.

Not sure why you checked the river, you should definitely be betting here, after you check with a bricked flush draw (I'm assuming there was a flush draw on the flop when stated it was semi suited) out there you kind of have to call. You lose to QJ and TT but you beat bluffs which he could have a lot of with the drawy nature of the board and he has very strong hands that may be tempted into shoving too thinly, like KT. There is also the off chance that he has 76s but it's such a small part of his range it's not worth considering. If he does show up with 76s make a note that he calls preflop and on the flop too wide.
 
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Gorblimey

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Why such a big raise pre? On the flop there is no benefit to an overbet. You don't have nearly enough of an advantage in ranges to overbet here. MP definitely has TT, KTs, T9s, and QJs in his range. You only want to use flop overbets when you have a huge advantage at the top of the ranges. On this board you still have a decent advantage since you have AA/KK/AK that MP shouldn't have so I think that calls for a 2/3-3/4 pot bet.

Not sure why you checked the river, you should definitely be betting here, after you check with a bricked flush draw (I'm assuming there was a flush draw on the flop when stated it was semi suited) out there you kind of have to call. You lose to QJ and TT but you beat bluffs which he could have a lot of with the drawy nature of the board and he has very strong hands that may be tempted into shoving too thinly, like KT. There is also the off chance that he has 76s but it's such a small part of his range it's not worth considering. If he does show up with 76s make a note that he calls preflop and on the flop too wide.
I overbet the flop because it was well coordinated for his ranges. When he called the turn bet, I felt I had to slow down on fifth Street. When he shoved I just knew it was over and I mucked Never saw his cards.
 
Evan Jarvis

Evan Jarvis

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180 big blinds in a $5-$10 NLH full table. Hero has pocket 99 and raises to $50 and only a middle position player calls. Flop is KT9 semi suited. Hero overbets the pot to $155 and villain calls. Turn is off suit 8. Hero bets half the pot and gets called. River is off suit deuce. Check and villain shoves for all Hero's stack. I'm a deer in the headlights. Is this snap fold? I don't have a read on this villain.


What is the worst hand you think he would take this line with?

Are there any flush draws that your opponent will take this line with?

I don't know about 'snap' folding, I always like to take my time, make my opponent sweat a little bit and see if I can pick up a read. It's so villain dependent whether or not you can hero call here...
 
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Gorblimey

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I'm thinking KJ is villains worst hand or possibly JT. Two overs makes my nines rather shabby.
 
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Kmason531

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I overbet the flop because it was well coordinated for his ranges. When he called the turn bet, I felt I had to slow down on fifth Street. When he shoved I just knew it was over and I mucked Never saw his cards.


When you're overbetting with the hope to get him to fold draws you have to think will he actually fold them? What you're doing here is trying to deny equity, you only deny equity if a person folds. So in this spot what ends up happening is you're bloating a pot to deny equity to hands that are never folding so if any of those scare cards come on the turn or river you'll be OOP in a big pot and not know what to do. Additionally on the turn after you make a big flop bet like this you should never then bet half pot on the turn when the turn card changed nothing. This is a spot where you either want to check or continue betting big. If someone calls an OB on the flop there is nothing scary about them calling a half pot turn bet, they should be calling nearly everything they called the flop with.

The river fold is a case of seeing "monsters under the bed." You got 1 of the best possible runouts you could hope for with your hand and still never considered calling.
 
Collin Moshman

Collin Moshman

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I agree that this spot is very opponent dependent. Generally though I would fold for a few reasons:

** You're facing an overbet;

** You only beat a bluff unless Villain is a maniac;

** Most live players at 5/10 are unbalanced toward value hands when they overbet.
 
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gustav197poker

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I honestly believe that your actions did not have the necessary consistency in this hand. In preflop I think an opening at 3x is more than enough at 5/10. You are in the strongest position of full ring, so you should not polarize your opening bet since this could be interpreted as a sign of weakness by some aggressive player, who could perform a 3bet IP and in that case your call / 3bet It would place your range in the lowest structure of it, because it does not block high pockets or high scale connectors.
Overbet in the flop is not a good idea here. The reason why a great cbet is not good is because your range has been polarized in preflop. So now if you continue with this attack intensity, you are blocking all the bluffs of the villain range and it will only continue to call the strongest part of the V range. Which in this case is made up of better sets than yours and a straight line. The lowest part of rank V is made up of double pairs, but even with this you are not in good shape because you don't block their outs.
On the turn the 8 does not change the structures of the ranges involved at all. If they called you on the flop, there would be no reason not to call you now. On the other hand, your range is limited in action, as you are on the verge of fully engaging with the pot. So this is not the right time to provide good odds for calls, as this will happen anyway.
On the river your check is quite unbalanced and shows weakness. Preflop and flop you played very aggressive, then the turn and river were out of proportion, regarding the attack sequence that you previously carried out.
Since you played the hand this is a clear fold on the river.
Greetings.
 
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Gorblimey

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I honestly believe that your actions did not have the necessary consistency in this hand. In preflop I think an opening at 3x is more than enough at 5/10. You are in the strongest position of full ring, so you should not polarize your opening bet since this could be interpreted as a sign of weakness by some aggressive player, who could perform a 3bet IP and in that case your call / 3bet It would place your range in the lowest structure of it, because it does not block high pockets or high scale connectors.
Overbet in the flop is not a good idea here. The reason why a great cbet is not good is because your range has been polarized in preflop. So now if you continue with this attack intensity, you are blocking all the bluffs of the villain range and it will only continue to call the strongest part of the V range. Which in this case is made up of better sets than yours and a straight line. The lowest part of rank V is made up of double pairs, but even with this you are not in good shape because you don't block their outs.
On the turn the 8 does not change the structures of the ranges involved at all. If they called you on the flop, there would be no reason not to call you now. On the other hand, your range is limited in action, as you are on the verge of fully engaging with the pot. So this is not the right time to provide good odds for calls, as this will happen anyway.
On the river your check is quite unbalanced and shows weakness. Preflop and flop you played very aggressive, then the turn and river were out of proportion, regarding the attack sequence that you previously carried out.
Since you played the hand this is a clear fold on the river.
Greetings.

Since by the river I no longer felt I was ahead and the odds of facing the nuts seemed high, I was done with the hand. I decided to play the hand weirdly to try and confuse the villain. But I don't know if that's really a valid reason.
 
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Gorblimey

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I agree that this spot is very opponent dependent. Generally though I would fold for a few reasons:

** You're facing an overbet;

** You only beat a bluff unless Villain is a maniac;

** Most live players at 5/10 are unbalanced toward value hands when they overbet.

I own your book on Sit&Go Strategy, so I'm one of your avid fans. Great book in case I start playing online tournies.
 
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Kmason531

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Since by the river I no longer felt I was ahead and the odds of facing the nuts seemed high, I was done with the hand. I decided to play the hand weirdly to try and confuse the villain. But I don't know if that's really a valid reason.


This is something that happens often, we try to confuse our opponent and all we do is confuse ourselves. That's why it's best to have a standard play and deviate when necessary not just because.
 
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Gorblimey

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This is something that happens often, we try to confuse our opponent and all we do is confuse ourselves. That's why it's best to have a standard play and deviate when necessary not just because.
Gotcha!
 
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