JJ hands | facing turn and river decision

[Killdalimper]

Villain's stats: VPiP/PR : 22/14

I put villain on QQ KK AA. The way he bet the turn seemed like a value bet to me. Would you play this hand any different?


Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 8 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $0.76 (38 bb)
UTG+1: $2.00 (100 bb)
MP: $1.72 (86 bb)
MP+1: $2.51 (126 bb)
CO: $2.57 (129 bb)
BU: $2.90 (145 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $1.65 (83 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with J♣ J♠
4 players fold, CO calls $0.02, BTN raises to $0.09, Hero calls $0.08, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.22) 4♣ 5♦ 5♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.22, Hero calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.66) T♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.49, SB (Hero) folds

Total pot: $0.66 (Rake: $0.03)
BU wins $0.63

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What's villain's range given the call pre and calling 2 continuation bets on flop and turn? Some sort of diamond draw? Hard to think he was bluffing on river imo. Dont know if this was a good lay down or not.


Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
CO (Hero): $2.37 (119 bb)
BU: $2.51 (126 bb)
SB: $1.94 (97 bb)
BB: $1.72 (86 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with J♦ J♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) T♣ 4♦ 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.41) 8♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

River: ($1.01) Q♦ (2 players)
BB bets $1.22 (all-in), CO (Hero) folds

Total pot: $1.01 (Rake: $0.05)
BB wins $0.96


.

 

[eetenor]

Ranging Villains early.

Villain's stats: VPiP/PR : 22/14

I put villain on QQ KK AA. The way he bet the turn seemed like a value bet to me. Would you play this hand any different?


Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 8 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $0.76 (38 bb)
UTG+1: $2.00 (100 bb)
MP: $1.72 (86 bb)
MP+1: $2.51 (126 bb)
CO: $2.57 (129 bb)
BU: $2.90 (145 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $1.65 (83 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with J♣ J♠
4 players fold, CO calls $0.02, BTN raises to $0.09, Hero calls $0.08, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.22) 4♣ 5♦ 5♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.22, Hero calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.66) T♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.49, SB (Hero) folds

Total pot: $0.66 (Rake: $0.03)
BU wins $0.63

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What's villain's range given the call pre and calling 2 continuation bets on flop and turn? Some sort of diamond draw? Hard to think he was bluffing on river imo. Dont know if this was a good lay down or not.


Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $2.00 (100 bb)
CO (Hero): $2.37 (119 bb)
BU: $2.51 (126 bb)
SB: $1.94 (97 bb)
BB: $1.72 (86 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is CO with J♦ J♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 players fold, BB calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.17) T♣ 4♦ 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.12, BB calls $0.12

Turn: ($0.41) 8♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.30, BB calls $0.30

River: ($1.01) Q♦ (2 players)
BB bets $1.22 (all-in), CO (Hero) folds



.

Thank U 4 Posting

Here are some questions to help you range your villains.

Hand 1

Preflop Villain raise range.

What will Villain raise on BTN?
AA-66? 22? AK-A? AKs-A?s KQ-K? KQs-? QJ-? J10-? Suited connectors 109s 98s?

If we look at this possible range how can we confidently conclude AA KK QQ only?

Flop 4c5d5h

Why does BTN bet pot? You have shown no strength preflop so what do you call with to make pot a value bet? So few draws is this not more of a I hope you fold now bet?
Would AA KK QQ need you to fold now?

Villain could have these hands if they expect you to never fold. Why would they expect that?

What hand might be ok with a fold on that flop? AKs? KQS A10s what else?

On the turn 10c Villain could have AA KK QQ but also what else AcKc-? A10? J10 K10 Q10? Would all those hands bet pot on the flop and continue on the turn with 2/3 pot?

Why would AA KK QQ not be worried that you have a 5 and bet smaller? Again what does villain think you will call a big turn bet with?

You may be right villain may play only AA KK QQ this way.

Hope this helps

 

[Killdalimper]

Thank U 4 Posting

Here are some questions to help you range your villains.

Hand 1

Preflop Villain raise range.

What will Villain raise on BTN?
AA-66? 22? AK-A? AKs-A?s KQ-K? KQs-? QJ-? J10-? Suited connectors 109s 98s?

If we look at this possible range how can we confidently conclude AA KK QQ only?

Flop 4c5d5h

Why does BTN bet pot? You have shown no strength preflop so what do you call with to make pot a value bet? So few draws is this not more of a I hope you fold now bet?
Would AA KK QQ need you to fold now?

Villain could have these hands if they expect you to never fold. Why would they expect that?

What hand might be ok with a fold on that flop? AKs? KQS A10s what else?

On the turn 10c Villain could have AA KK QQ but also what else AcKc-? A10? J10 K10 Q10? Would all those hands bet pot on the flop and continue on the turn with 2/3 pot?

Why would AA KK QQ not be worried that you have a 5 and bet smaller? Again what does villain think you will call a big turn bet with?

You may be right villain may play only AA KK QQ this way.

Hope this helps

Thank you so much for this informative hand breakdown.
What I noticed at micros is that aggression on flop and turn is usually a sign of a strong hand. I think he was value betting his over pair and was hoping that I leave the pot in case I had been drawing. Plus, from the bet sizing on flop and turn I think it's fair to assume that he was setting up a river shove.
However, you definitely have a point. Villain can and possibly will take the same line with AcKc A10 J10 K10 Q10.
I think im just too nitty.

 

[Elisondjp]

Thank you so much for this informative hand breakdown.

 

[eetenor]

Thank you so much for this informative hand breakdown.
What I noticed at micros is that aggression on flop and turn is usually a sign of a strong hand. I think he was value betting his over pair and was hoping that I leave the pot in case I had been drawing. Plus, from the bet sizing on flop and turn I think it's fair to assume that he was setting up a river shove.
However, you definitely have a point. Villain can and possibly will take the same line with AcKc A10 J10 K10 Q10.
I think im just too nitty.

Thank U 4 Responding.

It is great that you are observing your player pool and noticing that they are not adapting their play for board textures. If they are not then your read of only premium is possible.

So if your villains are over protecting their AA KK QQ AK hands a counter for that is to 3 bet small preflop with JJ and fold to a big 4 bet which will always be the above.

As played with a call preflop and flop, knowing our villains over protect we can lead 1/3 pot turn to try to freeze our villain. We now can have the five and if villain ships it we can fold if we have no data on this villain being super aggro. By the way in this spot if you had the five you should lead turn like this vs your player pool if they ship it when you do not have it.

Now the bad news.
Sometimes we have to hang on and lose our stack if we think our villains can bluff or over value 99 88 77 A10 etc. If you cannot do this then you should always be 3 bet folding JJ-99 preflop or play set or fold on the flop. If we think villains always bet pot with only the strongest of hands on that flop we can fold JJ-22.

Hope this helps

 

[Killdalimper]

Thank U 4 Responding.

It is great that you are observing your player pool and noticing that they are not adapting their play for board textures. If they are not then your read of only premium is possible.

So if your villains are over protecting their AA KK QQ AK hands a counter for that is to 3 bet small preflop with JJ and fold to a big 4 bet which will always be the above.

As played with a call preflop and flop, knowing our villains over protect we can lead 1/3 pot turn to try to freeze our villain. We now can have the five and if villain ships it we can fold if we have no data on this villain being super aggro. By the way in this spot if you had the five you should lead turn like this vs your player pool if they ship it when you do not have it.

Now the bad news.
Sometimes we have to hang on and lose our stack if we think our villains can bluff or over value 99 88 77 A10 etc. If you cannot do this then you should always be 3 bet folding JJ-99 preflop or play set or fold on the flop. If we think villains always bet pot with only the strongest of hands on that flop we can fold JJ-22.

Hope this helps

Again, a massive thank you for your detailed explanation! Even a beginner like myself can easily get a grasp of your words. Being a nit that I am , I think I should follow what you said and opt for 3betting/folding my 99-JJ preflop and go from there.
Cheers! :wavey: