I've lowered my $VPIP, but my win-rate has plummeted. What the hell is going on?

[texasfoldem]

This is my chart for almost 18000 hands. I ground my way up from only 20 dollars left at 4000 hands after I got a grip and worked out how to play effectively. In the past few days I have played several 1000 hands and the only thing that has changed is that I have a much lower VPIP now. It is around 20% now give or take. Those losses are playing good hands like king high flush, sets and full houses. They are from going all-in against players when I am holding KK or AA. AK is an absolute JOKE... it is like a guaranteed loss.

As an example on one table alone, I was all happy because I won a bit of money with a full house... seconds later I lose my entire stack to a VPIP 90 player because I was stupid enough to play aces full of 3s... how utterly stupid of me to think that he was not holding aces full of Kings. After grinding my way up on the same table... how utterly stupid of me think thing I could go all in with a KK! It is pretty obvious that my opponent has AA. Why did I not remember that in poker statistically speaking... AA always get dealt to players at the same time as KK in any one hand.

I would have to go back and look at the statics for how often I have lost with K high flush to ace high... I would have to look because I cannot even remember how often it has happened in the last few DAYS! That pails into insignificance to the amount of times my opponent has beat me when I hold a set though. A set is utterly useless and practically a guaranteed loss now.

This isn't a run of bad beats... this is insanity. Sitting there on table after table with some VPIP 100 player who's got a stack of over 10 dollars on a 2nl... why? Because every MONSTER hand you play against them is not as big a monster hand as their's. Looking at the stats it is like every few hands: flush/ straight/ full house... oh and several really terrible hands like SETS! Do I win with any of these sets? Of course not.. I may just as well fold them because they will always have the one just above mine... because every time I get pockets another person on the table will always get dealt the one above mine

 

[gabito_117]

they used alghoritms not just random(my opinion)

I think they change alghoritms.I don`t think it`s natural random ...(just my opinion)

Please take a look today at the hole video 12.5 milion turnament at pokerstars and at minute 1:19:00 it`s a little bit crazy

 

[texasfoldem]

I think they change alghoritms.I don`t think it`s natural random ...(just my opinion)

Please take a look today at the hole video 12.5 milion turnament at pokerstars and at minute 1:19:00 it`s a little bit crazy

Not sure I can see anything wrong there. If they got dealt pocket aces 5 times in a row then that would be rather odd.

What I was saying in the original post is based on thousands of hands. It seems to be so bad-beaty in the last few days now that is just does not seem right. Every win I get is countered a short time later by some ridiculous bad beat. The good hands are coming thick and fast... but they keep failing at an alarming rate.

 

[GIRFIED]

18,000 hands are too few to draw such pessimistic conclusions. You are clearly in a tilt, the ideal in these cases is to take a two-day break and then return to the tables.

 

[kraemer]

LOL...

Of course your opponent has AA against your kings...
He would have folded most other hands against your shove...

Play more careful... It's not so important if your hand is a monster.... It's more imprtant if you have the nuts or not...
Why would your opponents keep betting or calling when they
have trash that's obviously beaten?

If they keep putting in large sums into the pot you might have to accept that they have the nuts and fold your strong hand...

That sucks... I know! But although you can't do anything about having a downswing or not you can do a lot to lose as little as possible in it

 

[texasfoldem]

LOL...

Of course your opponent has AA against your kings...
He would have folded most other hands against your shove...

Play more careful... It's not so important if your hand is a monster.... It's more imprtant if you have the nuts or not...
Why would your opponents keep betting or calling when they
have trash that's obviously beaten?

If they keep putting in large sums into the pot you might have to accept that they have the nuts and fold your strong hand...

That sucks... I know! But although you can't do anything about having a downswing or not you can do a lot to lose as little as possible in it

Right, so fold KK pre-flop because someone will always be dealt AA in the same hand. Is that your advice? Did I say I had played almost 18000 hands or did I say 180 by mistake? Yes, I am perfectly aware that someone could have AA at the same time as my KK. You would fold pre-flop purely because the probability is that every time you get KK your opponent has AA?

 

[texasfoldem]

18,000 hands are too few to draw such pessimistic conclusions. You are clearly in a tilt, the ideal in these cases is to take a two-day break and then return to the tables.

Tilt is when you start playing rubbish hands because you have lost perspective. I have increased the amount of hands that I fold and I have started playing less hands pre-flop. That was 8000 hands I played with a specific strategy that was winning. I am using an even better strategy now than before - tighter folding when I know my hand is not as good as it seems.

I am losing with good hands. These are not good hands against players I can see are playing tight - these are hands against people playing with VPIP above 50. Loose players are on auto-win... they will get monster hands in the space of a few minutes that take me hours to get. I have watched hands that I would have had by watching the hands that I would have got after I have folded. I multi-table but I still do this just to get familiar with the odds... I would have though that 18000 hands would have done that.

My downward curve is almost vertical now. My play has become better and tighter and I am now losing at an astronomical rate.

 

[Tammy]

Changed title and moved this over to cash games so that you can (hopefully) get more replies and advice.

 

[texasfoldem]

Look, I will reiterate this. I use PokerTracker. I am going through the list of big losses that I have had. They are all in the last few days. I keep going through them and examining them and in the last few days I get beaten regularly with very good hands. I am talking of sets here and above like straights and king high flush.

It takes a long time for something like a set to come along. Things like full houses should be rare. For someone to have a full house better than yours is very rare. It is happening with such frequency that it is borderline humorous. It would be humorous if I were not losing all my money because of it.

Yes I have seen these idiot VPIP 90 players who end up with 5 times the buy-in within a few minutes of playing because they get a full house every other hand. Never with this frequency before though. I use the HUD all the time, even if I am multi-tabling. If you get even a (seemingly now rubbish) hand like a set, that should be a winner. I have learned that a set is usually a winner... not any more! Now a set is worthless... I may just as well fold it. If I get a set now someone (usually the guy with VPIP 90) will have either a better one or some monster hand like a full house.

I mean seriously, how often do you get a full house? I watch the hands that I "would have won" by watching my folded hands. You get one very very rarely. Even rubbish ones when you fold something like a 72o are very rare.

OMG... and the river card!!!! You go into an all-in with a great hand. Why does that river card always give total idiots a monster hand now? I would not even be able to use the PokerTracker stats to find out how many times I have been screwed over by that in the last few days...please. It is not just me either. Time and time again I see total newbs winning on the RIVER RIVER RIVER... over and over again.

 

[texasfoldem]

Changed title and moved this over to cash games so that you can (hopefully) get more replies and advice.

Highly doubt it will help because the world has obviously gone insane.

 

[Tammy]

Highly doubt it will help because the world has obviously gone insane.

Well, I can't argue with that.

 

[NWPatriot]

I am not much for conspiracy theory type of stuff, but I was feeling like something really shifted at ACR in the last couple of days.

I seemed to be consistently winning my SNG's, and now, all of a sudden I can't cash, no matter how I play. I don't feel like i have changed my game, but I sure am having trouble getting through. Today I flopped a set of J's on a QJ7 board. Of course it was possible one of the two opponents flopped a set of Q's, but I felt it was more likely AQ or KQ. Either way, all three players in the hand flopped a set. J, Q and 7. Amazing. I have played millions and millions of hands, and I do not believe I have ever seen 3 players all flop a set.

Maybe this is the beginning of the end.

God bless you all.

 

[BUSB0Y]

As someone else has mentioned, 10k hands is not enough to draw hard conclusions yet.

 

[vittopio]

If your chosen strategy (playing fewer hands) makes a profit, then you should not change it because KK gets into AA (this sometimes happens)! And exhibiting with QC against a player with VPIP over 90% is very profitable!

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Can you post your stats and some examples of the hands?

 

[texasfoldem]

Can you post your stats and some examples of the hands?

Overall VPIP is slightly high at 26% but it is coming down over time. Most of the time is is below 24. Depends on table - some it is as low as 15%. I play depending on position. I do tend to play too many from SB (edit: oh I forgot, that is the blind steal position so it is higher).

AFq 55
PFR 19

These are some noticeable ones from past few days. If I could work out how to sort 2 columns at once they would be kind of handy (like "won" and "date"). It is not so easy because it is several tables per table, sometimes I play 4 at once (I think that is the limit for PS anyway).

1. $3.51: Pocket kings all-in loses to someone with 10/9
2. $2.00: Flush king high... they just so had the ace. There have been at least 5 of these in the last few days (some higher than others in cash). I don't always go all in because I like to try to trap with high flush (does not always work). Goodness knows why they didn't go all-in if they had the ace!
3. $2.00: full house from pocket kings... they had pocket Aces (of course)
4. $2.00: two pair with 75o ONLY because someone limped in when I was BB... they got flush on the river (of course)
5. $1.95: two pair QJ to set of 9s on flop (I agree I should have folded but how often do you get a premium 2 pairs ffs?)
6. $1.91: pocket 3s leads to set of 3s on flop... they had pocket J so they got a set too (on the flop no less)
7. $1.17: set of Q fails to flush A high
8. $3.12: Full house aces full of 3s to VPIP 90 player who got A full of K
9. $2.13: pocket queens all-in... the guy played a j6o so he obviously got a set of Js
10. $2.22: 2 pair KQ from those hole cards
11. $1.72: Set of 9s... they got a straight from the river. Tried to force them off with high bet but they were a calling station with an ace in their hand

... and a load of hands (like top pair) that would usually win against loose rubbishy players. They are hands that would usually win most of the time because people are playing useless hole cards. Most wins overall come from just something like top pair w/good kicker. Those were the main income but they usually get beaten easily now. It is as if the standard hands that win have altered and there are many more hands like 2 pair and set. The amount of flushes that I keep seeing seems very odd recently.

This is just a sample because they are not too easy to collate with all different tables and sessions.

 

[NauGad]

Poker

You can’t play with one strategy all the time. You need to be more flexible in the game and always take into account a lot of nuances, based on the specific situation.

 

[texasfoldem]

You can’t play with one strategy all the time. You need to be more flexible in the game and always take into account a lot of nuances, based on the specific situation.

Yes I agree. I am not totally inflexible but there are some things that rarely change much, or at least they should not. Take for example statistical probability.

If no one else has found anything different at PS then I guess it should just be me then. I simply cannot understand what though. I am aware that many people probably including me do try to look for every other reason other than themselves, but I cannot work out what that is. Hands that I would usually win on most of the time are not. Maybe there are a lot more people playing now due to Coronavirus; maybe that has affected statistics due to many more players in the game. An influx of people who now have more time on their hands.

 

[LevySystem]

Yes I agree. I am not totally inflexible but there are some things that rarely change much, or at least they should not. Take for example statistical probability.

If no one else has found anything different at PS then I guess it should just be me then. I simply cannot understand what though. I am aware that many people probably including me do try to look for every other reason other than themselves, but I cannot work out what that is. Hands that I would usually win on most of the time are not. Maybe there are a lot more people playing now due to Coronavirus; maybe that has affected statistics due to many more players in the game. An influx of people who now have more time on their hands.

18k hands is not a big sample. I think you are experiencing variance. Check the following tool to understand how much variance Affekts those small samples.
https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
Read the instructions below, so you don't mess up the results.

GL at the tables

 

[texasfoldem]

A clearer graph...

I appreciate the help that people have given but...This is a graph I have drawn to show the patterns. I was presumptuous and should not automatically believe that everyone can see patterns in a graph:

Now hopefully this will make things a little clearer. For those who have stated that 18000 is not a big sample: you could draw conclusions from figures a FIFTH of the size of that. In other words 18000 is a huge sample. There are 52 cards in the deck, 6 players, 4 suits and only 10 different possible hands. I worked with just 4000 results to be able to work out how to improve my game drastically. The lines are practically at the same (but opposite) angle to each other at the 4000 point. This means I reversed the gradient purely through changing my play style.

Yes, I know that this new downward line is most likely a bad habit that I have picked up. Outside influences have probably caused me to become stressed and I am not so focused on the game. All I will say at this point is to reiterate... 18000 is a large mathematical sample for holdem.

I doubt anyone can help me with this. I will need to further look at the results myself. I am already making progress seemingly because I am finding flaws that have crept into my play.

Thank you anyway.

 

[texasfoldem]

18,000 hands are too few to draw such pessimistic conclusions. You are clearly in a tilt, the ideal in these cases is to take a two-day break and then return to the tables.

I more or less dismissed what you said originally and I should not have. I actually do agree now that there was tilt in there and that it was being overlooked. The problem with becoming irrational is that it is difficult to look at your irrationality with rational eyes... when we are being irrational. Bit of a catch 22 really.

I do still think that 18000 is more than enough of a sample though. It does depend on mathematical background and ability to work out what was wrong. I am doing that now

I appreciate the help that people have given but...This is a graph I have drawn to show the patterns. I was presumptuous and should not automatically believe that everyone can see patterns in a graph:

Now hopefully this will make things a little clearer. For those who have stated that 18000 is not a big sample: you could draw conclusions from figures a FIFTH of the size of that. In other words 18000 is a huge sample. There are 52 cards in the deck, 6 players, 4 suits and only 10 different possible hands. I worked with just 4000 results to be able to work out how to improve my game drastically. The lines are practically at the same (but opposite) angle to each other at the 4000 point. This means I reversed the gradient purely through changing my play style.

Yes, I know that this new downward line is most likely a bad habit that I have picked up. Outside influences have probably caused me to become stressed and I am not so focused on the game. All I will say at this point is to reiterate... 18000 is a large mathematical sample for holdem.

I doubt anyone can help me with this. I will need to further look at the results myself. I am already making progress seemingly because I am finding flaws that have crept into my play.

Thank you anyway.

Please, do not look at this above post as a dig at anyone. It may look smarmy and self important but I am just pointing something out that I understand. I know I am not a very experienced poker player but we must draw on the knowledge experience that we do have already.

 

[ventrolloquist]

That's not a big sample.

 

[DancingNancie]

I appreciate the help that people have given but...

I doubt anyone can help me with this. I will need to further look at the results myself. I am already making progress seemingly because I am finding flaws that have crept into my play.

Thank you anyway.

I think you're looking at this wrong. You're saying that you need to look at the results to figure things out. You need to review the hands to see what you're doing well and what you're doing wrong. If you are getting your money in as an 80% favorite you are going to win 8/10 times. That is about as good as you can get your money in. You are still going to lost 20% of the time. That is just how the game works and you have to be able to handle these kind of downswings where it seems that 20% always seems to hit. Sometimes when I am on a downswing I will tighten up my range and sometimes I will open up my range. It just depends on what you're seeing from the hands you're playing.

Don't be results oriented. This game is about making the best decisions you can with the information you have. You can only get your money in as a favorite. If you're doing that, you will be a long term winner in this game. If you don't, you will be a long term loser. Look at the hands you're losing the most money on and what the situations are and learn from that. You may be pushing too hard to fast with what you consider unbeatable hands. You can lower your variance by playing a style that is less volatile. You wont win as much, but you wouldn't lost as much either.

 

[quant1986]

Will need more stats to analyse your play like 3bet, position by position data to see if this is due to variance or some leaks in your play.

 

[texasfoldem]

Will need more stats to analyse your play like 3bet, position by position data to see if this is due to variance or some leaks in your play.

There are probably leaks almost certainly, but still this insanity is continuing today even though I am up slightly by 2 dollars. I have noticed I am maybe betting too hard on top pair like Aces.

I know some of these hands look somewhat dubious but they were mostly very good hands today and not just relying on table cards. That is literally a screen shot of my top losses today and most of that was within a few minutes:

This post: https://www.cardschat.com/forum/bad-beats-vents-71/insanity-continues-just-funny-455111/ gives a bit more insight over some of the hands looking a bit dubious. 3 times in a row an utter utter newb just won by default... because every really good hand I had against this VPIP 70 player was beaten by something ONE better than mine like set of 6s against my set of 4s or one card better than me in the flush. I had the jack... he had the queen. I had the king HE HAD THE ACE!!!! It would have been irrelevant if I fast played or slow played that set because we BOTH hit a virtually identical set on the flop! It is happening with so much frequency now that I am just sitting there laughing. I have even said to someone on here that nothing surprises me anymore but this is just insane now. This is utterly stupid... 4 or 5 days of utter ridiculousness.