Insane Heater?

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Meur5ault

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Have you ever experienced one? I have not.

Something that has been bugging me lately. I've recently got back into poker, I'm trying to improve and beat the micro level (basement) I'm playing. I'd settle for 3bb/100 over the long game.

So far, I've been losing fairly steadily, Until very recently, last couple of weeks, It looks like I've started to turn it around.

Anyhoo, Here's the thing. I've never been on an insane heater. I'm not exaggerating, or forgotten those times I did. But never. Surely the math alone would dictate, I should go on stupid heaters. My pairs all set, my connectors all connect, my poor decisions got paid on the river. But no, never.

What am I not understanding about the maths?
 
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Meur5ault

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Heaters are more probable the larger your winrate.

But if I'm managing my vpip and playing in position and being disicplined with my folds to aggression.

How do I make those monster hands from specualtive hands? I'm folding most suited connectors and small pairs from early position.
 
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Oli3579

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I've gone on 30-100 BB/100 heaters over several thousands of hands, feels good just got to remember to keep playing the same when things aren't going your way
 
TheGenera1

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But if I'm managing my vpip and playing in position and being disicplined with my folds to aggression.

How do I make those monster hands from specualtive hands? I'm folding most suited connectors and small pairs from early position.

Are you asking how to increase your winrate? I'm saying basically, that the better player you are, the more likely you are for a heater. Bad players can of course have heaters too. Play long enough, play winning poker and you'll have one. Depends also how many buyins you consider are needed to constitute a heater.

I've made 20 buyins at 5nl over 10k hands before. Does that count.
 
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Meur5ault

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No, it's not about winrate.

I'm asking about the math of running into heaters.
I've played millions of hands, don't think I've ever had a session where I can't do wrong.

I'm not saying it for strategy, just that rarely, it should happen.
 
TheGenera1

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Yeah but what I'm saying, is that if you're a bad or losing player, it's much harder to have a heater! The odds are much better at having a heater if you're a solid winning player.

Does that make sense :)

If you'd like to look at the maths, then use this site. Plug in the numbers and see the sorts of swings that are available. As you can see, the higher the winrate you plug in, and the higher the number of hands played, the larger chance of a huge upswing. Conversely, the lower the winrate, and the fewer hands played, the less chance there is.

https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/
 
WrongUsername

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my insane heater was to go to plo2 to plo100 and supernova in 1st year playing poker
 
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Meur5ault

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my insane heater was to go to plo2 to plo100 and supernova in 1st year playing poker


Whoa! I can't even imagine that.

Did you experience any sessions where you could do no wrong? All your sepuclative hands hit, errors rewarded by sheer luck?
 
TheGenera1

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The best players don't make errors xD
 
LevySystem

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Have you ever experienced one? I have not.

Something that has been bugging me lately. I've recently got back into poker, I'm trying to improve and beat the micro level (basement) I'm playing. I'd settle for 3bb/100 over the long game.

So far, I've been losing fairly steadily, Until very recently, last couple of weeks, It looks like I've started to turn it around.

What am I not understanding about the maths?
First of congrats for beating the game!

It depends how you define heater I guess. Are we talking upswings for like 10k or 100k hands?

Also I'd highly suggest the tool that General recommended you, check out the instructions below too, so you get accurate results.

With a 3bb winrate (over a reasonable sample, say 50k+) you are doing OK, but there certainly is a lot of room to improve. Keep in mind that even 50k is still affected by variance a lot. Friend of mine who has a 6bb (over 250k+) winrate on z100 on Stars had breakevenstretches for like 60k hands, for some perspective.

Winrates of 10bb should easily be possible at nl2. Even over big samples.
 
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Meur5ault

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I mean just a session. Say 1k hands.

But I'm not really talking about win rate. Just where the poker math goes crazy and awards you everything (or nearly everything)

Like when you make a loose gutshot call and it hits, where you are all in AA V your KK and K or KK hits.

Like this guy against me earlier


pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $0.47 (24 bb)
UTG+1: $0.95 (48 bb)
MP: $6.34 (317 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): $4.17 (209 bb)
LP: $2.09 (105 bb)
CO: $5.00 (250 bb)
BU: $1.98 (99 bb)
SB: $4.08 (204 bb)
BB: $2.75 (138 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP+1 with K K
3 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, 2 players fold, BTN calls $0.06, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.15) 6 K T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.11, BTN raises to $0.29, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN raises to $1.92 (all-in), Hero calls $0.67

Turn: ($3.99) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($3.99) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3.98 (Rake: -$3.52)

Showdown:
BU shows 6 6 (four of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 4%, Turn: 98%, River: 100%)

MP+1 (Hero) shows K K (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 96%, Turn: 2%, River: 0%)

BU wins $3.85
MP+1 (Hero) wins $3.65

I cashed out so... I just don't seem to ever get this lucky
 
TheGenera1

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I mean just a session. Say 1k hands.

But I'm not really talking about win rate. Just where the poker math goes crazy and awards you everything (or nearly everything)

Like when you make a loose gutshot call and it hits, where you are all in AA V your KK and K or KK hits.

Like this guy against me earlier


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $0.47 (24 bb)
UTG+1: $0.95 (48 bb)
MP: $6.34 (317 bb)
MP+1 (Hero): $4.17 (209 bb)
LP: $2.09 (105 bb)
CO: $5.00 (250 bb)
BU: $1.98 (99 bb)
SB: $4.08 (204 bb)
BB: $2.75 (138 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is MP+1 with K K
3 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, 2 players fold, BTN calls $0.06, 2 players fold

Flop: ($0.15) 6 K T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.11, BTN raises to $0.29, Hero raises to $1.25, BTN raises to $1.92 (all-in), Hero calls $0.67

Turn: ($3.99) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($3.99) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $3.98 (Rake: -$3.52)

Showdown:
BU shows 6 6 (four of a kind, Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 4%, Turn: 98%, River: 100%)

MP+1 (Hero) shows K K (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 96%, Turn: 2%, River: 0%)

BU wins $3.85
MP+1 (Hero) wins $3.65

I cashed out so... I just don't seem to ever get this lucky

The thing is, "good" players tend not to make wild and crazy "loose gutshot calls" you know? Or say, get it in with A2 offsuit and hit trips.

The more conservative, or correct that one plays, both pre and post flop, the less they get these crazy heaters where they hit everything. Because they are making correct lay downs all the time. The heaters come from getting it in ahead, and having the hands hold rather than sucking out a crazy amount, if that makes sense :)
 
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Meur5ault

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Still no run good here, 1k session just 5.41bb/100 so far.

I mis click call on the turn, I didn't see his sizing


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.52 (76 bb)
UTG+1: $2.00 (100 bb)
MP: $4.24 (212 bb)
MP+1: $1.83 (92 bb)
LP: $3.84 (192 bb)
CO: $2.06 (103 bb)
BU: $2.78 (139 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)
BB: $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with A 2
7 players fold, Hero raises to $0.06, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.12) T 3 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.08, BB calls $0.08

Turn: ($0.28) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.18, BB raises to $0.81, Hero calls $0.63

River: ($1.90) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.05 (all-in), BB calls $1.05 (all-in)

Total pot: $4 (Rake: $0.14)

Showdown:
SB (Hero) shows A 2 (three of a kind, Twos)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 32%, Flop: 81%, Turn: 25%, River: 100%)

BB shows J A (two pair, Jacks and Twos)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 68%, Flop: 19%, Turn: 75%, River: 0%)

SB (Hero) wins $3.86

Then flop the nuts to get runner runnered obviously


PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $2.43 (122 bb)
UTG+1: $2.72 (136 bb)
MP: $2.38 (119 bb)
MP+1: $1.44 (72 bb)
LP: $1.03 (52 bb)
CO: $1.04 (52 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB: $2.47 (124 bb)
BB (Hero): $2.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with Q K
2 players fold, MP raises to $0.04, 5 players fold, Hero calls $0.02

Flop: ($0.09) T J A (2 players)
Hero bets $0.07, MP calls $0.07

Turn: ($0.23) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.29, MP calls $0.29

River: ($0.81) A (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60 (all-in), MP calls $1.60

Total pot: $4.01 (Rake: $0.14)

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows Q K (a straight, Ten to Ace)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 41%, Flop: 94%, Turn: 91%, River: 0%)

MP shows A 8 (a full house, Aces full of Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 59%, Flop: 6%, Turn: 9%, River: 100%)

MP wins $3.87

But staying disciplined, steady as she goes...
 
GreenDaddy1

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I've got about 28k hands in my database winning at just over 7BB/100. That is 2NL, 4NL & 5NL. Nothing like the amount of hands multi tabling grinders are going to have. And honestly my win rate would be higher if I was not so prone to tilt and spewing away my hard work every now and then.

Anyway, point being, even with that relatively small sample, I see massive variance in my win rate and definitely get on heaters. For example I've just played again at 2NL past 3 days after a couple of months break and I am winning at 25BB/100 over 2836 hands. If I drill down even further on those 3 days, day 1 I was losing! Therefore if I only count the 1890 hands from day 2 and 3 I'm running at 45.45BB/100. Now, I wish I was that good and everyone else was that bad.... call it what is is though, a very high win rate over a very tiny sample. In other words, a heater.
 

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