I am a slightly losing 10NL player, what are my leaks?

[Tinyman1104]

Intro


So in the past 3 days I decided to start a bankroll challenge that I have been streaming (https://www.twitch.tv/supersport1104 / I just started so don't expect too much but would love the support). I believe that I have played enough hands to understand the player pool dynamics for fast fold 10NL. I have just under 7000 hands in this period (I understand this isn't a big sample but I think it's big enough to to understand the pool) and my win rate is -3.73bb/100. Obviously, this is less than desired. The kicker is that I have paid about 10-11bb/100 in rake ($74.19). So over this sample I should be profitable if it wasn't for rake. How should I go about adjusting so that I cannot only turn a profit but my crush my opponents.

Notes

When I play live I am usually TAG depending on my opponents of course. I find that this is the most profitable strategy against the loose passive players I play with. When I play online I switch more to a LAG approach especially in the fast fold format when players are being so tight I win a lot of pots preflop. This coupled with my high pfr/vpip ratio, agg, and cbets means that my Non-Showdown line trends upward. I pretty much exclusively use a 3bet or fold strategy in the HJ, CO, and BU as well.

Something else I noticed is that players in this specific pool are generally tight passive. When i am the pfr I can take down the flop with a 1/4 pot sized bet very frequently. Postflop when faced with aggression I am usually beat and struggle to fold the top of my range. There have been multiple situations where I can only name 3 or so hands in my opponents range that can beat me and can think of worse hands that they might value bet, but I am beat the vast majority of the time. My Showdown line has been trending downward as a result of this.


Statistics

I decided to compile and average the behaviors of all players that I played more than 100 hands which was about 80 players. These are all hands that I was dealt in regardless of whether I played or not. You will see my stats in the top row.

Note: the average player is profitable which probably implies that the majority of money comes from players that don't play that many hands (bust and quit) or me. Also I tried to do some regression analysis but I couldn't find anything that was statistically significant besides winning before showdown and at showdown affects my average win rate (duh). I probably need a much bigger sample to do any sort of statistical analysis.

https://imgur.com/TdlfZ91

Graphs
https://imgur.com/jVDtsrS
(EV against Total Winnings)
https://imgur.com/DJs5Rlm
(Showdown vs Non Showdown Winnings)

Note: I am running about 5 buy-ins above EV but there are other factors that aren't visible that affect my EV. For example: I lose about 170bb/100 when i get KK - this is mostly because when KK sees a flop an A hits about 50% of the time in this sample. I also have gotten AA about 40% less than I should have in this sample. Lastly, I have received 12 coolers (pots amounting in a whole 100bb stack lost or won regardless of who was holding each hand i.e. set over set) and only gave 8 in this sample.

Conclusion

I think I covered all my bases. If you have any specific questions about my database or play style please ask. I played on ACR for this sample so players are not anonymous and I can exploit specific players if I have enough data on them. I can't use a HUD while I play so I will have to leave notes. Is there anything I am overlooking? What are my biggest leaks? How do I turn this ship around and become profitable? What would good ranges look like? (I can show mine if there is demand) Should my 3bet range be more value heavy or balanced? I would like to grow my bankroll so that I can comfortable play 200NL by the end of 2020!

 

[abwil2]

If your happy just taking blinds down then your good i guess. But why change so much from your live game? I realize the blinds are higher live but you said you have a hard time folding when beat?

Looks like your non show down hands are where you need to be but your show down hands show your either chasing with hope or you arent recognizing your beat and wont fold your top pair with good kicker. if someone calls your 3 bet they are either on a good draw or have you beat and its time to slow down. Doesnt matter if u go all in some will never fold a good draw!!

 

[Tinyman1104]

If your happy just taking blinds down then your good i guess. But why change so much from your live game? I realize the blinds are higher live but you said you have a hard time folding when beat?

Looks like your non show down hands are where you need to be but your show down hands show your either chasing with hope or you arent recognizing your beat and wont fold your top pair with good kicker. if someone calls your 3 bet they are either on a good draw or have you beat and its time to slow down. Doesnt matter if u go all in some will never fold a good draw!!

I think changing from my live game is necessary because players play very differently and I can exploit them differently. I'm not really chasing. I think my agg shows that I am the aggressor. I'm okay if people call with their good draws if I go all in. I'll still be ahead and be making money long run

 

[TPC]

I think changing from my live game is necessary because players play very differently and I can exploit them differently. I'm not really chasing. I think my agg shows that I am the aggressor. I'm okay if people call with their good draws if I go all in. I'll still be ahead and be making money long run

Good luck to you sir! I thought the same thing! You will see as you play and get to know players it's hard to see how they are playing. There's a few regs that will switch things up drastically and play tight one day and super LAG the next. In the blitz format it's impossible to tell which style they are playing. I was drawn out on left and right, by just about everyone. Did I play perfect poker? No, I got tilty and spewed some here and there. I played about 30k 10nl blitz hands. I ran -$120 below ev.

You won't believe some of the stuff you see, some of the hands that call three and four bets, it's crazy! Now, again 30k hands isn't a lot. I was running 12 buy-ins below ev. But my honest assessment is blitz poker is a disadvantage to the more skilled player. You have no HUD, you can't see the frequency at which villain is playing, maybe he's folding 30 times before he plays, maybe he's only folded twice. You never really know. I've seen other threads where they talk about how many tables villain has running, I think that's kind of hard to tell too. Maybe once their stacks get to different sizes you can tell. But there are also a few of them that would always have just 100bb stacks. Thinking to yourself, god they must suck and totally be losing. I would go look them up in my database and they wouldn't be crushing it, but they would actually be profitable. So that means when they are winning a hand or get up a couple of bucks they jump off and back on again so they can go back to 100bb stack. A lot goes on in blitz that you can't see till you really dive into your stats.

I get the lure of blitz, but it's literally a minefield. I was playing it because 10nl doesn't run on standard 6 max tables for whatever reason. My plan is to just deposit $500 to $1000 and play 25nl or 50nl on standard 6 max tables. These seem to always have more than a few tables running. Again, good luck to you!